Predictions update 2011:

ReMax was most accurate, alberta bubble blog(squidly) was off by 146%

Who's had a consistent pattern of making incorrect predictions?

Here's a historical record of errors

Predictions for 2011

Calgary Real Estate Board http://files.newswire.ca/847/CREB_Forecast_report.pdf 

Year-to-date SFH average price of $480,000

an increase of 4.1% over 2010 

CREA(Canadian Real Estate Association)

Calgary Herald

ReMax

Average price to increase 2% in 2011 to $450,167

ReMax housing market outlook 

RBC Calgary Herald

Alberta home prices to rise .2% in 2011

Dec average price of $442,223

Toronto-Dominion Bank

Globe and mail

average house prices will slip by 2 per cent in 2011

Dec average price of $432,514

CMHC   Calgary Herald

the average sale price will rise by 0.5 per cent in 2011

Year-to-date average price on Dec 31, 2011 of $463,450

Garth Turner   http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/07/08/grow-up/ 

July 8, 2011: Garth Turner predicted that Calgary would have a 10% decline in average price. He said it was "a certainty." At the same time, he suggested there could be a 20% correction and a 30% drop. How's that for hedging your bets? The average among the three is 20%.

Prediction: Average  price in Dec 2011 of $364,998

Squidly/Zoogle/Dan at Albertabubbleblog said on July 22, 2010:

"Calgary home prices will likely plunge $15,000 a month for the next 18 months in a row, that's right, all the way down to the long term MEDIAN price of about $160,000."

Squidly predicts the 30-day median price on Dec 31, 2011 will be $160,000

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Predictions for 2010
See results: Winners and Losers 2010

Calgary Real Estate Board  
CREB forecast made Jan 20, 2010

Single Family Homes: "we predict an increase of approximately 6 per cent in 2010 to an average price of $470,000"

A 6% Year-to-date increase would translate to an average price $468,867.

Condos: "an increase of approximately 4.3 per cent is expected for 2010 to an average price of $296,000."

A 4.3% Year-to-date increase would translate to an average price of $295,935.

Canadian Real Estate Assoc(CREA)
CREA resale housing forecast made on Feb 8, 2010

Average price(YTD) in Alberta to increase 4.7% in 2010

A 4.7% YTD average price increase in Calgary would translate to an average price of $463,116 on Dec 31, 2010.

Re/Max made Dec 3, 2009

"The average sale price of a Calgary existing home is forecast to rise by five per cent next year(2010)."

An increase of 5% (Year-to-date)would put the average price at $464,443, and the median price at $411,600.

Jimmy said on Dec 9, 2009:

http://www.bobtruman.com
 

"Total year to-date prices by next December will be about 8% higher than YTD 2009."

8% higher YTD average price would be $477,713.

Garth Turner  The greater fool said on March 31, 2010

"Homes in Calgary are overvalued by 15 to 20 per cent"

"If the Bank of Canada decides to be aggressive and raise rates by half to three quarters of a point, we're going to see 15 per cent shaved off by Christmas. If it's slower, it's going to take us into the spring."

A 20% drop from March 31's average price would translate into an average price for spring 2011 of $377,015.

Squidly/Zoogle/Dan at Albertabubbleblog said on July 22, 2010:
(This is an additional prediction. He has predicted every year since 2006 that the AVERAGE price would be $160,000 "in a very short time.")

"Calgary home prices will likely plunge $15,000 a month for the next 18 months in a row, that's right, all the way down to the long term MEDIAN price of about $160,000."

Note: the 30-day median price on July 22, 2010 was $409,500

A drop of $15,000 a month would translate to a median price on Dec 31 of $319,500.

Note that his prediction has changed from average price to median price.

Carioca Canuck(aka Keith in Calgary) said on Alberta Real Estate Watch on Jan 27, 2010

"I personally predict the hit to our prices will be at least equivalent to a 1/3 drop here in Calgary."

A one-third drop from Dec 2009's median price would translate to a median price of $268,670 by Dec 31, 2010.

A one-third drop from Dec 2009's average price would translate to an average price of $300,914 by Dec 31, 2010.
 

Squidly77/Zoogle/Dan from Albertabubbleblog.blogspot.com

July 26, 2010 at 6:55 pm

"this blog will end shortly as it was only meant to warn people away from the housing hype, theres no sense to continue blogging now that the market is about to crash" Relief  

July 27, 2010 at 5:04 pm

"the blog will end when its obvious that prices wont be going up again for a long long time and theres been a fairly substantial price drop, should be about six weeks i figure

at that point, it will no longer make sense continuing to blog, i mean what would i blog about ?" anyhow we have a month or two left to go, then itll squid out. Break free!

Update: Since the end of his blog in Sep 2010, Squidly77/Zoogle/Dan has made 53 postings and continues to post.

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Bob Truman said on Aug 30, 2010

"He(Squidly) repeatedly says he's shutting down his blog, but he never will because it's where he gets his fix." Bob's blog 

Update: This prediction has come true!

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Squidly said on Dec 12, 2010 on the Albertabubbleblog

"This blog will continue until the average Calgary house price has fallen 30% to $350,000, at that point the bubble would have blown."

             Predictions for 2009

CREA(Canadian Real Estate Assoc)
Prediction:The Canadian Real Estate Association is forecasting MLS residential sales will fall by 19 per cent this year in Alberta compared with 2008 while the average sale price will drop by nine per cent in the province. Calgary Herald

Update: SFH sales were up 3%. Year-to-date SFH average price was down 3.9%.

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Calgary Real Estate Board:
The average MLS sale price for a single-family home in the city will drop by 2 per cent in 2009 while for condos it will decrease by 5 per cent.

Update: Year-to-date avg price of SFH dropped by 3.9%. Condo price was down 6.2%.

Single-family listings will remain the same as in 2008, but sales will increase by 10 per cent. In the condo market, CREB forecasts listings to increase by 5 per cent in 2009, but sales to fall by five per cent.

The average MLS sale price is expected to fall to $451,120 for the entire year of sales in 2009 compared with $460,327 in 2008. The average sale price for a condo is expected to drop to $287,300 compared with $302,408 the previous year. Read more Calgary Herald

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TD Economics:
Prediction: The average resale home price in Calgary will drop 14.6% in 2009. TD Economics

Updated April 7, 2009: "Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009." TD Economics update

Update: Avg price of SFH(Dec compared to Dec) rose 8.1% 

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CIBC World Markets:
Benjamin Tal, chief economist at CIBC World Markets expects national house prices to drop about 10 per cent in the next 12 months as the recession deepens in Canada. He said prices will drop the most in Western Canada, because that is where they had the biggest run up in the housing boom, which has lasted nearly a decade. Prices to decline in '09

Update: Median price of SFH in Calgary rose 5.5%

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Garth Turner:
Prediction: Prices in Calgary will drop 15%. Greater fool
Prices... will stabilize in 2010
A 15% drop in the SFH average price would translate to an avg price of $354,788

Update: Avg price on Dec 31, 2009 was $451,349. Off by 27%.

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Squidly77(also known as Zoogle, Dan, Squidly33, Squidly66):
"what do you think that the chances are of calgary sfh not having a $200,000 yearly loss in 2009
re-setting in 12 months to about $225,000
i think the chances are good"
A $200,000 drop from Dec 31, 2008 would put the average price at  $217,398.
Prediction made on Dec 27, 2008 on the Alberta Bubble Blog

Update: Avg price on Dec 31, 2009 was $451,349. Off by $233,951 or 108%.

"crushing losses in value of real estate of all kinds..everywhere"
Prediction made Jan 14, 2009 on the Alberta Bubble Blog

Update: The median price of real estate in Calgary rose 5.5%.

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Keith in Calgary(aka Carioca Canuck):
Calgary will go down 25% in 2009
Low oil prices the ramifications thereof, plus the economic collapse brought about by the financial system are the triggers…….that, and oh yeah, 12,000 listings and 800 buyers…….
Prediction made Dec 24, 2008 on Garth Turner's blog
A 25% drop in the SFH average price would translate to an avg price of $313,049

Update: Avg price on Dec 31, 2009 was $451,349. Off by $138,300 or 44%. There were 2054 listings.

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RJT(from Alberta Bubble)
Avg price in Dec 08 was $366 (old criteria). "I think another 30K drop during the next 12 months is in the bag. Could be more."
A 30K drop would put the Old Criteria price at $336,000.
"I predict condo prices will tank ALL year."
Prediction made Jan 6, 2009 on the Alberta Bubble Blog

Update: Old Criteria avg price on Dec 31, 2009 was $395,469. Off by 18%. Condo avg price rose $13,721 in 2009.

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Moderator of the Alberta Bubble Blog
"Don't buy Alberta real estate" 
Expect further weakness here and at least another $1000 per month hit over the next 25 years.
A $1000 per month drop would translate to a median price of $365,000 in Dec 2009, and a median price of $75,000 in the year 2034. Prediction made Mar 9, 2009 

Update: Median price on Dec 2009 was $401,000. Off by $36,000 or 10%.

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Moderator of the Calgary Real Estate Bubble Blog
"Sales will not recover in 2009, and a buyers' market is here for the long term." Prediction made on Jan 24, 2009.
Comment on the above blog made on Oct 11, 2008: "I think the house price will start crashing after thanksgiving and it will go down more than 50% by Christmas Holiday season. I will sell my home soon, even with the loss of ~5oK, becasuse i do not want to make loss of $200K by year end." A 50% drop by Christmas would put the median price at $197,500.

Update: Sales rose 7% in 2009. Median price dropped 2.6% by Christmas. Median price increased 5.1% one year after this person sold his home.

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Mike(addicted to DailyStats.ca) Known by many names on the blogosphere including Mike-O-Rama, Mike(Authentic), Mike but not the Mike F Mike.
"$253K average price sounds just about right"
Prediction made Feb 11, 2009 on the Alberta Bubble Blog

Update: Average price was $451,349. Off by 78%.


 

Predictions for 2008:

Bob Truman

Prediction: Bob Truman predicted in Jan 2008 that single family home 30-day median price would rise as high as $430,500 and drop to a low of $389,500.

Result: The price rose in February to $428,000(less than 1% off) and has dropped as low as $380,000(2.4% off) on Dec 31.

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Prediction: Bob Truman predicted in Nov 2007(when inventory was 4984) that if single family home inventory fell to 3500 that prices would rise in the new year.

Result: On Dec 31, 2007 inventory had dropped to 3364 and the median price had dropped for six consecutive months. The median price rose $3,212 in Jan and a further $18,000 in February.

Calgary Real Estate Board

Prediction: In its 2008 forecast reported in the Calgary Herald, the Calgary Real Estate Board said the single family home YTD average price will increase by five per cent this year to $495,800 while condominium prices will rise by six per cent to an average of $335,300.

Result: Year-to-date average price of single family homes was $460,327. That's down 2.5% from 2007. This is off by 7.5%. Average price of condos was $302,408, down 4.4%. This is off by 10.4%.

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Squidly66

Prediction: "shes all over now
shes toast
it couldn't be any plainer to see
prices wont fall to the 300,s
try $160,000 for an average sfh

Prediction made Nov 8, 2007 on http://albertabubble.blogspot.com/2007/11/but-we-are-different.html

Result: Average price on Dec 31, 2008 was $417,398. Off by 161%

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TD Economics

Prediction: TD Economics forecasts the resale price of houses to rise 10.3% in 2008. See full story in the Calgary Herald.

Result: The average price at Dec 31 is down 6.1% compared to Dec 31. Off by 16.4%

Others Read details here
CMHC +7.7%
Real Estate Investment Network +12%
Royal LePage +4%
ReMax 0

Predictions for 2007:

Bob Truman said on Feb 26, 2007:

"The combined average price has risen over 8% this year and is already higher than the CREB prediction for the entire year(7.5%). March will be the month where the prices start to stabilize. I'm expecting a gazillion new listings to take the upward pressure off. Demand will further decrease because many people have been priced out of the market..."

Update: Listings increased for 8 consecutive months after this was posted. Inventory was 173% higher than in Feb. Prices began their decline in Aug 2007

Bob Truman said on Nov 30, 2006:

"If the active listings continue to decrease, I expect the prices will stabilize once we reach about 4500 listings. At that time, there will be a lot of buyers suddenly appearing and getting serious. Right about the time when people start getting 'Spring Fever.' This in turn will not necessarily precipitate a large increase in prices, but I believe the activity will pick up considerably. We might see a rise of 5 - 10 % next year in average prices."

Update: Average price in 2007 increased 9.7%. The inventory reached 4500 active listings in July 2007. The price decreased therafter.

__________________________________________

Squidly said On Dec 10, 2006 on the Calgary Contrarian blog:

"well i say now re prices down by 40% by next summer
go ahead and laugh
you know im right"
That would have put the average price at $243,000.

Update: Average price in summer 2007 was $506,000, a 108% difference from Squidly's prediction.