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What were they saying? Gems from the real estate blogosphere |
Quotable from Garth Turner: "Unless you are one of the doomer goons who have, by the way, been consistently and utterly wrong."
I will no longer tolerate those who decry and ridicule others because they disagree. Get used to it. — Garth
A bully attack on another poster will not be tolerated or published. Address the issues raised. — Garth
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Comments on Canadian Mortgage Trends re re: Garth Turner
re: Garth Turner, GreaterFool.ca
I think somewhere deep down Turner knows he's wrong but he's beyond the point of no return. He can't come out now and admit he's made bad calls or he'll lose his flock. My father once told me to beware of men who never admit to being wrong.
Garth is on the business of selling fear.
If you post your coments on his blog, he will censure them.
Try it and see for yourself, he never allows any challanging comment or well argumented that might prove him wrong on his blog. On the other hand, vulgar comments get through regularly.
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Comment from the GreaterFool directed to Garth Turner
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/10/19/6976/#comments (Comment
(Comment #22 from "Not 1st")
I only comment on this blog for one reason, your blog has a propensity to trash real estate while blowing sunshine up everyone’s wazzoo about equities and bonds. Yes, the laws of economics will correct real estate, but they also apply to insolvent countries, tapped out consumers, zombie financial institutions, shadow banking, and equity valuations held up by nothing but talking heads.
And then because your views are not balanced, that invites an aggressive counter argument from the posters. For example, dismissing gold, an asset class that has gone up 10 straight years. Or your utter inability to be able to recognize failed institutions, like JPM or Bof A for instance who hold trillion of liabilities on their books from CDS.
On top of that, you want this economy to simply reboot as is, without any changes like its 1981 all over again. That means all the same mistakes will get repeated again until we have a bigger crash all while too much wealth is concentrating in too few hands. That cannot continue and most do not want it to continue, yet you do.
Those are the reasons you are challenged by your posters. Open your mind a bit, see the other side and you will find the comments will moderate overnight.
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Leon Llens(comment #83) said to Garth Turner on Jul 17, 2011
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/07/17/humans/#comments
I can tell you with reasonable certainty that one day the world will come to an end. Please stop pretending to be the housing market God or even guru, when you’re really just stringing us along with your glib tongue and bawdy humour
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Squidly said on May 28, 2011 http://albertabubbleblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/british-columbia-real-estate-is.html
The next stage will be falling prices, with sales dropping so hard and so fast panic will set in, which of course will cause panic selling taking prices down heavy.
It's already started in Alberta, Red Deer's been whacked and it could be Calgary's turn soon, wheather it's next month, the month after or in three months it's coming, there's absolutely no doubt about it.
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Comment on GreaterFool.ca referring to Squidly at AlbertaBubbleBlog
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/08/01/reality-bites-2/#comments C Co
Comment #32 by Chris
What wakes me up is the thought of reading another blog article by squiddly, which is guaranteed to contain more high school drop-out grammar (always good for a laugh).
I live to laugh at how many times a wanna be Alberta blogger can misuse “your” and “you’re”, or “their”, “there”, and “they’re”.
That, and seeing how idiotic he can come across, when he pretends to be the next GT, and tells his 3 followers to never bet against uncle sam. Or when he posts his numbers of wisdom regarding foreclosures in Alberta relative to the USA…
Hey squiddly, all those realtors in Calgary and Edmonton who you have attacked are right to assume you’ve made dumb ass comments on their blogs. It’s hard to conceive anyone else would have the same high school drop out grammar (sentences starting with ‘but’, common words consistently spelled incorrectly). It’s like your posts are a grammatic finger print. Even if I agree with most of your comments (which I do), the wanna be writer act has gotten old.
That and the fact you require posters on albertabubbleblog to login (i.e. no anonymous postings). What are you afraid of? You delete the comments you disagree with anyways. Unlike Garth who actually has a head on his shoulders and values a good debate, you just want to pick fights with people who for the most part are a lot smarter than you.
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When prices are increasing the data is skewed. When prices drop, the data is infallible...
Comment from the GreaterFool.ca
Regarding the drop in average price. I remember not too long ago, when the average price kept going up, there were lengthy justifications on this blog how unreliable the average price is as a realistic measure, how fewer sales overall and odd high end sales skew the average price etc. Of course now, when the average price went in the direction supporting the crashing RE point of view, all of the sudden it’s a valid argument and no mentioning of possible higher volumes of lower end sales that can similarly skew the average price curve. Hard to be objective, eh?
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/08/16/dont-worry/#comments
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Comment from the GreaterFool, Aug 15, 2011
Funny how many on this blog stopped talking about the coming RE correction and melt.
Interest rates at ZERO in the states until 2014 at the least. Canadian rates aren’t going anywhere either.
Worst case scenario in Canada now is stable prices in the major cities for the foreseeable future.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/08/14/foolish-2/#comments
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Garth Turner on the Greater Fool blog said on Dec 15, 2010
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2010/12/15/seasonally-adjusted/
come the Spring of 2011, when listings swell again like a bad gland, this real estate thing may not go well.
Garth Turner said on Jan 2, 2011:
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/01/02/fearmonger/
any surge in listings – and it looks like a mother of one is coming – will only exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance behind six consecutive months of year-over-year sales declines, and a price plop already shaping markets like Calgary and Edmonton.
Update: Aug 2011: Inventory is lower than last year. Sales are up. New listings are down. Median price is same as last year.
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Comment from GreaterFool.ca referring to Garth Turner
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/07/31/stupidity/
Are you capable of communicating with members of the female population without referring to them as “babes” or other similar terms?
You end up losing credibility and looking like a creepy old undersexed man.
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Comment from the GreaterFool.ca
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/07/29/consequences-4/
I’m finding it increasingly hard to recommend (the Greaterfool.ca) to other people who may be interested in the subject due to flagrant abuses of the English language. Since the majority of commenters here seem to think of themselves as having superior intellect to the overleveraged masses, it would help if they avoided basic spelling and grammatical errors.
To me – even the most truthful statement is rendered virtually meaningless when it is composed of errors in composition. Please run your posts through Word and fix the squiggly lines before hitting Submit.
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Garth Turner said about his blog
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/07/27/extremism/
only 1% of the people who come here actually leave a comment. I just pray to the goddess above they don’t represent society as a whole. Cuz then, we’re screwed.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/07/18/it-gets-better/
GreaterFool attracted an audience of doomers, nihilists, conspiracists, survivalists
Times have changed, sort of, but a platoon of the nutbars hangs on.
This blog is a swampy morass of conspiratorial fiction.
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July 6, 2010 Mish's global economic trend analysis
I am now confident the peak in Canadian housing insanity is finally in.
Update:
Median price Jul 2010: $400,000
Median price May 2011: $423,000
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Garth Turner said on Jan 22, 2009
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/01/21/dont-wait-too-long/
In fairness, let’s not forget that earning a living via commissions is far more difficult and risky than most people understand or could accomplish. They must fight for both listings and sales, and they also see their ranks swell incredibly during good markets, which makes survival in bad ones even more difficult. Paycheques can often be few and far between, while daily operating costs (and family obligations) are constant. While I have a great deal of criticism to heap on real estate spokespeople who try to prime the market without justification, let’s reserve our harshest abuse for the media who lazily, uncritically and sometimes unethically report this drivel as news. — Garth
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Garth Turner said on Jan 21, 2009
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/01/21/dont-wait-too-long/
First, the average price now in Cowtown is $417,398, down from a peak of $505,920. So, for the average price to fall by 2% from the 2008 average, it will actually have to increase to $451,000, a jump of 8%. That's about as likely as oil going back to $100 a barrel this year.
Update: Average price on Dec 31, 2009: $451,349
Garth Turner predicted a price of $354,788. Off by 27%
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2008/12/24/2009-look-out-below/
On the same post, after Garth's mocking of the president of CREB(whose prediction for 2009 turned out to be correct) a comment from one of Garth's followers:
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There really oughta be a law against such bald-faced deception.
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It is really sickening that she actually gets paid to spew out such nonsense.
A comment on the same post from Squidly77:
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this is probably the most outrageous prediction from the CREB to date and does a grievous disservice to calgarians
Squidly77 predicted an average price of $225,000. Off by 101%.
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Garth Turner said on Apr 6, 2011:
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/04/05/the-news-3/#comments One month means nothing. — Garth http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/04/06/how-to-invest-3/ Why does everyone talk in extremes? — Garth
Comment from a reader: I following your blog for two years. For two years you’re keep telling us that the real estate market in Canada is about to burst. What we see…For the last two years real estate prices went trough the roof and keep going up. In almost each of your postings you’re saying that in few more months canadian real estate bubble will burst and prices will drop for at least 25 – 30%. You have to realize that here is a lot of people like myself following your blog and keep waiting for this miracle to happen. How long we have to wait for that moment?
It will happen when it happens. — Garth |
Feb 2010 Carioca Canuck at albertabubble.blogspot.com(now inactive) I haven't lied to anyone. You don't need to when you tell the truth. |
July 22, 2010 Squidly/Zoogle/Dan at Albertabubbleblog Calgary home prices will likely plunge $15,000 a month for the next 18 months in a row, that's right, all the way down to the long term MEDIAN price of about $160,000.
Nov 11, 2007 Squidly/Zoogle/Dan at Albertabubble(now inactive)
the bottom is about to fall out
and i mean fall out
as far as prices go there is no bottom
my prediction for an avg sfh is $160,000 or less..in a very short time
April 5, 2011 Squidly/Zoogle/Dan at Albertabubbleblog
The Housing Shim Sham Ponzi Scam is just about up, the collapse is now just months away. |
April 23, 2009 from Kevin at Edmonton Housing Bust (now inactive)
http://edmontonhousingbust.com
In conclusion, it appears that by most measures we are not just heading towards a bust, but have already arrived. And it’s not one of those things that bouncing back above the threshold undoes, once you cross the line, it’s done. |
Mar 25, 2011 Comment from a Greater Fool reader http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/03/24/
I prefer if Garth keeps his style of writing as since it only appeals to fringe audiences, namely the poor and envious.
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Mar 25, 2011 Comments from Greater Fool readers(responding to Garth Turner's request for advice on his propensity for sexual references)
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/03/24/ I am not a big fan of Garth’s sexual innuendo. It just seems kinda lame and non-relevant. But it makes me wonder if he’s kind of, you know, “unfulfilled”…..Them that talk about it vs them that do it, etc…..
...lose the detracting adolescent sexual referencing. It isn’t a matter of morality, it’s a matter of if you want your message to be taken to the next level and seriously, you act accordingly.
...some of your language makes you seem like a pervert. I guess those without children get old, but they don’t necessarily mature.
It’s just that most of your metaphors paint a picture of a prurient old man, not getting any, but hounded by constant desire.
Frankly, you sound like an under-sexed teen (with a Hummer, even more telling) and therefore use the lewd language to fill a void. |
Nov 8, 2007 Squidly/Zoogle/Dan at Albertabubble(now inactive)
how to calculate median price
"day 1..5 houses sell
280,000..300,000..800,000..400,000..540,000
avg price..464,000
remove the highest and the lowest
price
median is 413,000
day 2...7 houses sell
425,000..475,000.320,000..310,000..900,000..525,000...330,000
avg price..469,285
remove the highest and lowest price
median is 415,000"
Quotable: Squidly said..."Realtors arnt very smart"
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Jan 15, 2009 Squidly/Dan/Zoogle at Albertabubble(now inactive)
We are approaching 16 months inventory
Update
Jun 2009 Inventory is 2 months
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Garth Turner said on Jan 27, 2012 http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/01/27/cheap/#comments
Get an agent.
"...you should have one to represent you, do the research for you, bargain for you, and protect you. Will that cost you one per cent, or a half a per cent, of the price? Probably. But it could also be the best insurance money possible. The seller might be a tightwad, but you’re the one shelling out the money. Buyers wear 100% of the risk.
There are lots of things in life to be cheap over. Selling or buying a house worth five or ten years worth of income ain’t one of them. Get an agent."
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Garth Turner said on Dec 28, 2011 http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/12/28/how-to-buy-2/
"...always have your own agent. No exceptions. Never use the guy the sellers engaged to flog the place, since you need your own advocate to negotiate the best deal and represent your interests, as well as ferret out information on comparables and history." "
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Garth Turner said on Dec 18, 2011
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/12/18/careful/#comments
"Why does anyone come to this blog? I wonder. No hot stock tips. Not enough half-naked babes. Too many wrinkly people. A surfeit of house-horny kids. Endless hectoring from a pathetic Harley owner. And thousands of comments from tin foilers, metalheads, pissed-off renters, boomer baiters, wannabe economists, whiny genXers, misogynists, feminists, doomers, Tea Party wackos, condo speckers and people in Vancouver captivity. Meh.
It seems clear, however, some folks believe reading this daily drivel will make house values go down. It’s what they live for. They dis real estate so they can get some. And when I spell out what housing did to America, for example, they cheer. It’s as if prices here can collapse without any consequence (other than they get a house). It makes the blog more delusional than the House of Commons. Or Global TV.
I said recently (for a variety of reasons) the average house price could decline 15%, then enter a long comatose period. That seemed to disappoint some and enrage others, who believe real estate must (and therefore will) decline until they can afford it. So they pile on and forecast a 30-50% rout, taking a SFH in 416 to $450,000 and in Van to half a million. The justification (other than their own finances) is Phoenix or Vegas or Miami.
Well, ain’t gonna happen. Nor should you wish it." ""
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Squidly said on Sep 28, 2011
http://albertabubbleblog.blogspot.com/2011/09/hedge-fund-liquidations.html
"since selling my Rundle home last year I have been renting a 1,600 sq ft bungalow with a 2 car front drive garage built in 2005 in a very nice NW Calgary community for $1600/mo. If this house were listed the asking price would likely be around $550,000."
Fact: Squidly doesn't even live in Calgary.
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Garth Turner said on Nov 30, 2010
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2010/11/30/cowtown-moment/
The fact is things are almost certain to be worse in the spring. The simple reason is so many people have snorted the realtor dust and removed homes from being isted that when they pile back on in March, buyer demand will be overwhelmed. Currently there are about 10,000 houses for sale in the city (which means sellers will wait, on average, almost a year for a buyer), but could easily swell to the early-2008 level of 15,000.
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Squidly from albertabubbleblog said
Nov 11, 2007
"the bottom is about to fall out
and i mean fall out
as far as prices go there is no bottom
(causing many suicides and murders)
housing prices dont have a bottom
people are leaving calgary
my prediction for an avg sfh is $160,000 or less..in a very short time"
Nov 8, 2007:
“shes all over now
shes toast
it couldnt be any plainer to see
prices wont fall to the 300,s
try $160,000 for an average sfh”
Feb 27, 2007:
“it realy is coming to an end”
Feb 24, 2007:
“its all falling apart now”
March 13,2008:
“only a total fool would buy now
flashing lights and sirens are every where”
April 7, 2008:
“your gonna see a market meltdown”
April 8, 2008
“the gig is up
the ponzi game is coming to a predictable and tragic end
whos still in will lose big time”
Jun 25, 2008
“the great unwinding is virtually at hand”
Jun 30, 2008:
“your now gambling
and youll lose and big”
Jul 3, 2008:
the unwinding starts now”
Aug 16, 2008:
“you can see and smell the sheer panic and fear in the air
this could be awfull”
Oct 23, 2008:
“it will happen
a total and complete collapse”
“the canadian banks will die
and die fast”
Sep 2008
“total and complete madness
get ready for a 5,000 point dow”
“a collapse is imminent”
“the great unwinding is upon us now”
"GET OUT NOW !!!!"
"there is no recovery.."
“very dark and very bad”
June 15, 2009
"we are finally here
the bust will happen this year "
Aug 13, 2010
"They became stupid and got carried away making silly unsubstantiated
'predictions' (guesses) about the future"
Apr 13, 2010
"Mortgage rates are rising faster than I thought, if the trend continues, the 5 year rate will be about 9% by years end"
Apr 14, 2010
"Prices are going no where but down, month over month, year over year, its a slow miserable bleed from here on in"
Apr 15, 201
"Its to late to sell now, its just to late"
Apr 16,2010
"10% down payment now required for Alberta"
Surprise! 10% down payment now required for Alberrta
Apr 22, 2010
"Rates will be 3% higher in a year or so, the CHMC qualifying rate will be around 9%, and the worst part is, your house will be worth considerably less"
May 7, 2010
"Theres many, many more real estate scams dead ahead"
May 9, 2010
"Any one retarded enough to still be in stocks should seek addiction counseling immediately"(Update: TSX up 18% since)
May 13, 2010
"Alberta's heading for 10% plus unemployment, its gonna get very ugly in Alberta, very fast"
May 16, 2010
"So now it begins, the mad rush to dump properties"
May 18, 2010
"something very detrimental is about to happen "
May 20, 2010
"These are not normal times, tsx down to 8,500 and nat gas to $2 by mid summer, or sooner, then lower"(Update: TSX at 13,797. Nat gas above $4.00)
May 22, 2010
"calgary is in full recession mode "
May 22, 2010
"Alberta's heading for 10% plus unemployment, its gonna get very ugly in Alberta, very fast"
May 28, 2010
"Alberta set to lose 56,000 residents"
Jun 3, 2010
"A housing price crash is now imminent."
Jun 3, 2010
"sooner or later those 1-3 million dollar homes will stop selling "
Jun 6, 2010
"Prepare to dive greedy bas _ _ _ds, prepare to dive, shes going down"
Jun 8, 2010
"We are presently witnessing the end of Calgary's supercharged housing industry, its dying."
Jun 11, 2010
"its all downhill from here. "
June 14, 2010
"She’s gonna blow soon "
Jun 16, 2010
"this bitch is gonna blow."
Jun 19, 2010
"Its a shame that it had to come to this, its just a shame."
Jun 21, 2010
"Calgary average home prices will be $160,000 when all is said and done."
Jun 28, 2010
"panic selling will be everywhere."
"The Calgary housing bubble continues to unwind."
Jul 2, 2010
"The Calgary real estate market is precariously perched at the precipice of a crash."
"I cant think of anyway out of this mess "
"There is no where for prices to go but down. "
Jul 8, 2010
"there's the smell of denial and the stench of fear in the air today.
The crash of the eighties will look like child's play when this mother of all housing bubbles explodes.
Its gonna get ugly out there... panic inducing monthly reports that were always accompanied with their fictitious and amateurish economic expectations."
Jul 16, 2010
"in Alberta the outlook is grim at best" """"
Jul 17, 2010
"Alberta's real estate market is going down hard" "
Jul 22, 2010
"40,000 layoffs in Calgary by next spring is definitely in the cards.
Its called a Bust."
Jul 26, 2010
"this blog will end shortly as it was only meant to warn people away from the housing hype, theres no sense to continue blogging now that the market is about to crash
Jul 27, 2010
the blog will end when its obvious that prices wont be going up again for a long long time and theres been a fairly substantial price drop, should be about six weeks i figure"
July 27, 2010
"the Great Unwinding is underway, and the panicked rush for the exits is here"
Aug 1, 2010
"Calgary prices will crash as sales have crashed"
Aug 2, 2010"
The game is now obviously over. Let me repeat that - over "
Aug 7, 2010
"100,000's of albertans will default on their homes."
Aug 9, 2010
"Alberta will soon be a no man's land"
Aug 16, 2008:
“you can see and smell the sheer panic and fear in the air
this could be awfull”
Aug 16, 2010
"A price crash is imminent - The price you get today, is as good as its gonna get."
Aug 17, 2010
"the Calgary housing market is about to go over the cliff"
Aug 25, 2010
"Calgary real estate is doomed"
Sep 1, 2010
"Oh Boy Oh boy - Alberta's sinking like a stone!"
Sep 8, 2010
"Its all spinning outta control now and the center can not and will not hold." "
SIts all spinning outta control now and the center can not and will not hold.
Sep 13, 2010
"make no mistake, a price crash now waits dead ahead, there's absolutely no doubt about it.
Sep 16, 2010
"There's a Calgary housing crash dead ahead, or perhaps its already here."
Sep 21, 2010
"Oh man, this things gonna end ugly, real ugly. "
July 5, 2010
"More should be expected than this Bull s _ _t."
Jun 14, 2010
"at the end the day, the liars and frauds will be exposed "
May 30, 2010
"a lot of people dont like what i write, but the fact is i have gotten it 100% right" ""
Mar 13, 2010
"quit being so negative and offensive"
Feb 3, 2010
Comment to squidly: Mr squidly, you give off too much negative energy. Have you ever considered trying yoga or meditation to deal with your anger issues?
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