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Calgary home sales continue decline, prices hold steady

Bob Truman — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 03:18:00 GMT

After guessing what Mario Toneguzzi from the Herald would come up with we finally have it. Nobody came very close to getting it right. (I'm sure Mario is getting a good chuckle out of this, and he'll probably never call me again!). "Calgary's residential real estate market in the first half of this year has been marked by declining sales, increasing listings and stabilizing average sale prices compared with a year ago." Read the full story Calgary home sales continue decline,...(read more)

June sees reversal in trends

Bob Truman — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 16:47:00 GMT

After an unprecedented build-up of inventory for five consecutive months, the inventory of single family homes declined by 8% in June, but there are still 48% more homes for sale than last year. For the first time ever, going back as far as I have SFH stats available(2001), sales increased in June compared to May, with 5% more homes selling in June. The long term average shows there is normally an 11% drop. (And for the benefit of Warren, who took his ball and went home, sales per day rose exactly...(read more)

When Mario calls, what do you say?

Bob Truman — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 02:19:00 GMT

I'm going to give you the chance to be the media pundit for June. If Mario Toneguzzi from the Herald called you for comments on the June numbers, what would your answer be to the following questions: Why did the inventory suddenly reverse direction, and start to decline? Why did the SFH price go down?(Average price will be down approx $8,000 from May, and the median will be down approx $14,000. The sales price per sq ft will be the same as May). We have not had a 30-day stretch of sales this...(read more)

Are these indicators a trend or a blip?

Bob Truman — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 15:49:00 GMT

Single family inventory has fallen to 6969. That's 130 less than on May 31. The sales to new listings ratio(S/NL) has risen this month to its highest level all year at 48%. It was 40% in May. For the past two years, the S/NL has declined from May to June. Single family sales are up 9% compared to last month and down 19% compared to June 2007. For the first five months of this year, sales were down 34% compared to 2007. Sales today are at their highest level for any 30-day period in 2008. Although...(read more)

Do you agree with this complaint about new inner-city homes?

Bob Truman — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 16:24:00 GMT

There was a news item on CBC this morning that is very relevant to the previous "inner-city" topic. A resident of Wildwood(Kevin) is complaining about a huge new house that is being built beside his old bungalow, saying it does not fit in with the character of the 'hood. Wildwood is a lovely established SW community between Bow Trail and the river, in the vicinity of 37 St SW. Kevin says this new house belongs on an acreage. Wildwood is mostly an R-1 neighbourhood, so tearing down one...(read more)

Soaring energy costs are about to change everything

Bob Truman — Sun, 08 Jun 2008 19:04:00 GMT

There's an article in MacLean's entitled After Cheap Oil. The article explains the consequences to the housing market of the increasing price of oil. Here is an excerpt: Experts see two separate real estate markets forming — neighbourhoods that offer easy access by bicycle and public transit, and those accessible only by car. "They're going to be the losers in the next economic downturn," says Anthony Perl, director of Urban Studies at Simon Fraser University. "Those...(read more)

Buyers get more home for their money

Bob Truman — Tue, 03 Jun 2008 04:49:00 GMT

It is quite astonishing how the prices are holding up this year, considering the overwhelming number of homes for sale, and the lack of buyers. The average price was up $5,000 over April, at $479,564, and the median was down $1,000 to $419,000. The inventory build-up is slowing, with a net gain of only 218 listings in May. We had been adding around 900 homes per month previous to May. The Year-To-Date average price is at $471,987 which is $5,270 higher than last year. The median is up exactly $100...(read more)

Guest topic

Bob Truman — Fri, 30 May 2008 00:22:00 GMT

This comment came in on my previous post(Where did you come from?), but I thought we could use it as a topic until we post the month end numbers. Thank you to "Blog Assassin" for this: How would stagnation erode all the gains of the last several years? Can you wrap your head around that statement? If economic growth is at 1 percent or less and inflation is at 5 percent doesnt that mean that the cost of everything will be going up including your house? Rents will be going up at the rate...(read more)

Is this guy dangerous? Or just a cowardly bully?

Bob Truman — Wed, 28 May 2008 15:47:00 GMT

The comment yesterday from Lo(re: dafamatory libel) has prompted me to post this new topic. If you've been following the saga, I've received threats from Jim_S the bubble blogger. http://albertabubble.blogspot.com/ He is also posting under the name "Hybrid Car" and "Marketing 101" and some others from way back. On here, he's posted as "confused" and "joe." The "joe" comment was not made public, but you can now see it if you go back to...(read more)

Will my prediction come true?

Bob Truman — Sat, 10 May 2008 14:34:00 GMT

I predicted on Jan 30 that Single Family Home prices would fluctuate this year within +/- 5% of the January price. That would mean we could see a drop in median prices to as low as $389,500, and average price to $432,532. Do you think this is still possible? The median price today is $$422,000 and the average is $483,035. We have already reached the plus side figures on average price(plus 5% would be $478,061) and come very close on median price(plus 5% would be $430,500 and we were at $428,000 in...(read more)

SFH average price in April goes up $51.00 !!!!!

Bob Truman — Thu, 01 May 2008 16:20:00 GMT

I knew you'd enjoy the headline. It illustrates that very little changed in April. The only price indicator that showed any movement from March was the condo median price which went from $293,000 to $290,000. The April SFH average price was $474,564. Average days on market was 40. Compared to last year, the sfh average price was the same, but the median is down $12,000, from $432,000 to $420,000. Sales were down 34% from April last year and down 4% compared to March. A higher percentage of homes...(read more)

Alberta's environmental irresponsibility is going to hurt us

Bob Truman — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 14:43:00 GMT

If you think environmental issues aren't going to affect us in Alberta, the lead story on the CBC, and the front page of the Herald today should give us pause. 500 birds trapped in oil . The Herald story states, "In an advertisement from a coalition of American and Canadian environmental groups, an oilsands mining operation is captured within an image of a maple leaf oozing oil like blood." People from all over the world are hearing about this. Don Braid says in his Herald column, "...(read more)

Price Reductions - To Advertise or Not

Bob Truman — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 14:55:00 GMT

Thank you to Warren for submitting this topic: On March 25, Bob wrote in What's New "We're averaging 126 price reductions per day over the past week. That's as high as they were back in October when we had approximately the same inventory." I can only assume that this trend has continued or even intensified in the month since that post (Bob would have more accurate data on this). (It's now 166/day over the past week -Bob) I've been watching the listings for a couple...(read more)

Balanced market is forecast by TD Bank

Bob Truman — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 23:08:00 GMT

A TD Economics Special Report released today calls for a 5% increase in home prices in Alberta for 2008, and no major correction. Hi-lites of the report: The main conclusion is that sales will moderate, leading to a sales-to-new listing ratio that is consistent with balanced markets and cause more moderate price growth. However, we still don’t see a major housing correction for a number of reasons. · First, the parallels with the U.S. experience are limited. Much of the U.S. housing...(read more)

C'mon Albertans, let's protect our wildlife!

Bob Truman — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 15:45:00 GMT

Alberta plans to kill wolf pups This is a cause that I am passionate about and I am compelled to share my feelings. As a long-time volunteer for environmental causes, I am outraged at the provincial government’s proposal for a wolf cull. “Researchers in the University of Alberta's department of biological sciences have proposed a cull of wolves in the Rocky Mountain House area. This would involve shooting wolf pups and sterilizing older wolves, with the intention of boosting the elk...(read more)

How much is "market savvy" worth?

Bob Truman — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 14:16:00 GMT

I had buyers come to town on Feb 18. We looked at 12 properties in one particular area of Calgary. They found their perfect house but were unsure of how to proceed because they needed to sell their own house. My advice was to sell their own house first, before putting in an offer, because they would have better bargaining power by not putting that in as a condition. I advised that in the present market, there was a good chance that their dream house would still be available in 30 days. It's also...(read more)

Bob the Bear?!

Bob Truman — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 02:49:00 GMT

I did an interview with one of the radio stations today who wanted a summary of the March month-end. That's not news, but someone who heard the interview actually looked me up and called me. He gave his name and said he was a stockbroker and that he'd seen my signs around his neighbourhhod on occasion. He then proceeded to say that he was relieved to finally hear a realtor tell it like it is. I don't remember exactly what I said in the interview, but the gist of it was "Lots of inventory,...(read more)

Year-Over-Year Losses: Any fallout?

Bob Truman — Wed, 26 Mar 2008 15:36:00 GMT

We've been sailing in uncharted territory for the past two-and-a-half years in the Calgary housing market and nobody has predicted with any accuracy the events that have transpired. Forecasts are all over the place now. There are extremists on both ends of the spectrum, forecasting everything from a crash to a continued escalation in prices. March or April will be the first month since 1996 when we will experience year-over-year price losses. Will this affect anything significantly? I don't...(read more)

Are you an "Armchair Realtor?"

Bob Truman — Thu, 20 Mar 2008 07:05:00 GMT

Spring is here, and what better time to present a new idea. This concept is still in the embryo, but I wanted to get some feedback on it: DailyStats.ca was a cutting-edge idea when it started. Can you imagine going without it now? Something that didn't exist two years ago is now a part of so many Calgarian's daily lives. Now I want to try something even more revolutionary. I'd like to get all my bloggers involved in the evaluation process of a new listing, then follow the entire process...(read more)

What are Buyers Thinking?

Bob Truman — Sun, 02 Mar 2008 19:09:00 GMT

There was no rush to buy last fall. Prices were going down and inventory was building. If you picked out a property that you desired, you could take your time, wait for more new listings to view, go for a holiday, do some Christmas shopping, and there was a good liklihood that the house was still there. Now that the Days on Market is down to 40, from 51 in December, and prices are creeping up, does it create any sense of urgency? If you are a buyer, does it motivate you to get more serious? Do you...(read more)

Feb month end. Who would've guessed?

Bob Truman — Sat, 01 Mar 2008 08:50:00 GMT

Feb median price for single family homes is up 4.4%($18,000) over January. Average price is up 3.6%($16,399). Since Dec 31, the median price has risen 5.2%($21,212), and the average price has risen 6.1%(26,927). Feb sales are down 36% from last year. 2007 was not exactly a balanced market in Feb. Insane and frenzied might be too mild to describe it. A fairer comparison to the 7-year average still puts sales down 13%. Days on the market decreased to 39 from 50(January). C'mon now, with the huge...(read more)

This blog is open for business!

Bob Truman — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 15:07:00 GMT

Hi everybody! I still have a few kilometres* to go, but I'm opening the blog after a three-and-a-half month hiatus. Where do we start? There's so much to discuss. When we shut down in November, prices were falling, sales were down, and inventory was high. There was lots of trepidation about the future of the Calgary housing market. Was there going to be a crash, or the usual spring price increases? Are you surprised by anything that's happening? Did you really expect the price increases...(read more)