First Place Realty 650-2514

Equilibrium in the Calgary housing market

Bob Truman — Fri, 28 Oct 2011 16:28:00 GMT

For the past three years, the October median price has averaged $395,967, almost exactly where we are today($395,000), and t he market continues to be uneventful. Perhaps we've finally reached equilibrium after years of volatility. Shrinking inventory in the fall of 2005 was the precursor of the huge price increases of 2006. It was a roller coaster for a period of time thereafter. The median price in October 2005 was $258,500. Today it's $395,000, a 53% increase. Compared to the peak which...(read more)

Off to a good start in October

Bob Truman — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 02:30:00 GMT

For the first eight days of October, sales are up 25% compared to last year. Going back a little further, compared to the past three years, sales are up 8%. The Oct median price is up substantially at $398,250 compared to $366,750 last year. If you're selling, there's even more good news. New listings are down 9% compared to last year. Compared to the past three years, they're down 18%. While fewer listings is not such good news if you're a buyer, our inventory increased last month...(read more)

Canada - picked as the best in the world

Bob Truman — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 02:28:00 GMT

"countless Americans threaten to move to Canada if their preferred candidate does not emerge victorious. Of course, few follow through with a move north. Maybe it is time to reconsider." It turns out we are different here after all. Forbes Magazine has picked Canada as the best country on the face of the earth in which to do business. We moved up from #4 in last year's ranking. Completing the top 10 behind Canada were New Zealand, Hong Kong, Ireland, Denmark, Singapore, Sweden, Norway,...(read more)

What happened in September

Bob Truman — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 13:02:00 GMT

Here's a sneak preview of the Sept 2011 numbers. First, though, let's look at a bold statement made exactly one year ago, on Sept 30, 2010. CIBC said Alberta house prices are overvalued by 12.5% After all the predictions of gloom and doom, the September market was surprisingly robust. Sales are up 8% compared to last year, and down 7% compared to the 3-year average. Inventory has finally started to improve and is almost identical to last year. It's up 7% compared to the 3-year average....(read more)

Indicators of the future

Bob Truman — Mon, 26 Sep 2011 15:36:00 GMT

In this time of turmoil in the world's economy, it will be interesting to watch what's happening to sentiment among the buyers and sellers of Calgary real estate. The CC Index takes into account sales and new listings. If it continues to drop, I could see some rain clouds in our future. An increase in pending sales bodes well, however, the median price will be going down. What will the forecast be like one week from now?...(read more)

Calgary Rip-Off buys a house

Bob Truman — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 02:13:00 GMT

The more fanatical they are, the harder they fall Just when things were getting boring around here, we have some unbelievable news. Many of the former bubble bloggers changed their minds and bought a house, realizing it was the right thing to do. One person who I never imagined would buy a house is our old friend, Calgary Rip-Off. After not hearing from the dude for over a year, I mentioned his name earlier today(see previous post) and look what shows up on the GreaterFool from Rip-Off himself: Garth....(read more)

Life goes on

Bob Truman — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 15:13:00 GMT

Welcome back! After seeing the comment yesterday from Yeebs(on the previous post), I thought I better leave the summer behind and get on with it. Following the real estate market in Calgary is like watching paint dry. You missed nothing if you didn't check the stats or the real estate blogs for the past two months. Things seem to have settled into a predictable pattern... Spring up, fall down . I had an inkling that nothing significant would occur over the summer months, so I put my time to better...(read more)

Predictions update for 2011

Bob Truman — Sun, 26 Jun 2011 17:16:00 GMT

As we near the end of the first half of the year, Calgary's real estate prices are nowhere near the predictions. Except for CREB's and CMHC's. I'll be posting a mid-year predictions update, but I wanted to ask my readers if anyone has seen a concrete prediction from Garth Turner for this year? I may have missed it. He did make one for spring, but I didn't see one for year-end. I don't have time to search, so if anyone can find a prediction from Turner for Dec 2011, let me...(read more)

Vandals

Bob Truman — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 16:47:00 GMT

Sad to say, the Vancouver riots didn't surprise me. Read a real estate bubble blog any day of the week, and you'll plainly see these people are out there. People lacking any decency and any respect for society's norms. I caught Rex Murphy's take on it last night; eloquent as always, but Rex was impassioned as he delivered his take on the riots, with which I completely agree: "Those clod poles, ne’er-do-wells, vandals, punks, thugs and assorted clueless dolts who smacked...(read more)

More surprises

Bob Truman — Thu, 16 Jun 2011 16:08:00 GMT

With almost half the year under our belts, it's safe to say that events have not transpired as we expected when the year began. The 30-day median price, at $423,000 is higher than it was last year at this time. The SFH sales for Jun 1-15 are 31% higher than last year, and 5% higher than the 3-year average. New listings are down 9% compared to last year. The inventory did not "swell" as some pundits predicted. It's actually lower than last year. First-time buyers are re-surfacing....(read more)

Will Calgary follow in Vancouver's footsteps?

Bob Truman — Tue, 07 Jun 2011 18:48:00 GMT

BMO: "...Calgary’s house prices stand a reasonable chance of growing alongside incomes in coming years.” Read more: Calgary housing market recovers more than half its losses The headline is misleading. To be precise, Calgary has recovered 82% of its losses. The average price fell 18% between Jul 2007 and Jan 2009. At the end of May 2011, it was down 3%. The article goes on to say, However, valuations have improved since 2007, with prices at 4.2 times income, less than the national...(read more)

"My commute is killing me!"

Bob Truman — Sun, 05 Jun 2011 17:13:00 GMT

This comment was submitted in response to the article Driving ourselves mad "This cannot be truer of an article. I've moved inner city and the fact that I can get to work in 5-10 minutes is just a quality of life perk I cannot do without. What doesn't make sense is those who live out in Chestermere and drive to the west-side of the Calgary for work. What are you thinking? Not only is that environmentally unfriendly, but they spend about 2 hours a day or more driving. 10 hours a work...(read more)

Losing streaks

Bob Truman — Tue, 31 May 2011 15:01:00 GMT

The hockey season is way too long. I can still remember when there were only six teams, and I recall watching the Leafs win their last Stanley cup - in April! Come to think of it, what do the Leafs and bubble bloggers have in common? A: Both on long losing streaks. For five long years we've been listening to the doomsayers and their predictions of crash and burn. For five long years they've been wrong. It's different this time All the stars were in alignment for the perfect firestorm...(read more)

What are you doing with your time on this planet?

Bob Truman — Mon, 30 May 2011 02:43:00 GMT

This comment was worth a posting of its own(thanks, Moneyman). Most real estate blogs get pre-occupied with the investment aspect, whereas there's plenty more to consider when deciding to rent or buy: I'm in finance, and money should be all that matters to me.... but then again life is more than just money. Running a calculation and saying rent or buy based purely on the money you have left over after 10-20 years isn't realistic. You can always make more money but you can never buy back...(read more)

Willful Blindness

Bob Truman — Wed, 25 May 2011 15:24:00 GMT

This spring was supposed to be the start of a long-awaited correction in house prices. I predicted that we'd see a price at the end of June of $388,000, but today the median price sits at $420,000, and I'm surprised, to say the least. That would be a drop of 7.6%. Once upon a time, the monthly median price increased by 11.2%, so it's still possible but highly unlikely. This year, we had no more excuses. The mortgage rule change on March 18 created a brief flurry of activity, but that...(read more)

Grinding to a halt?

Bob Truman — Tue, 24 May 2011 00:26:00 GMT

One popular theory making the rounds is that the first sign of a housing crash is a slow-down in sales coupled with rising prices. It so happens this is not anything new. We heard it last week. We heard it last month. We heard it last year. We heard it in 2008. We heard it in 2006. Why are average prices rising in a cooling market? Since it was first written in Oct 2006, the average price has fluctuated, mostly higher. It was $423,870 in Oct 2006, while today it's $483,903. The insinuation when...(read more)

"Canadian Business" magazine screws up

Bob Truman — Fri, 20 May 2011 15:23:00 GMT

Everyone's entitled to their own opinions, but not to their own "facts" Thanks to Dame Edna for bringing this to our attention. A recent article by Michael McCullough in Canadian Business magazine http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/26129--the-calgary-in-the-coal-mine is simply incorrect. It states, "Calgary. Average resale prices there fell 4% in the first four months of 2011 compared with the same period in 2010, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board." I will state...(read more)

Theory of the day

Bob Truman — Sun, 15 May 2011 16:16:00 GMT

Said by a notorious blogger on Dec 20, 2010: I have no doubt there will be a torrent of listings hitting the market in February. Realtors have been lubricating homeowners for months, telling them the sales slide of 2010 was an anomaly and everything will be back to normal (a.k.a. surging prices) in the Spring. Of course, exactly the opposite will be true, given what’s about to happen. Torrent of listings? Year-to-date, new listings are down 12%. So far in May, down 20%. Sales slide? Year-to-date...(read more)

Rob Jensen(aka tjmikey)...where are you?

Bob Truman — Fri, 13 May 2011 00:02:00 GMT

I received this email on May 21, 2009: "Hey Bob, I've called you out on Turner's blog. I'll make you a bet and Turner has agreed to hold. I'll bet you $1,000 that the price of an average house in Calgary is going to drop between 25 to 35% FROM CURRENT VALUES in the next 24 months. Definitions of average house required of course, probably some type of average. Your propoganda seems to point in the other direction and I disagree with your outlook 100%. I see it one way, you see...(read more)

First-time buyers dwindling

Bob Truman — Mon, 09 May 2011 14:54:00 GMT

Although it's impossible to determine which homes have sold to first-time buyers, we can make a guess at the size and style of house which most first-time buyers would purchase and go from there. We've seen a nosedive in sales of smaller, 2-storey homes in the suburbs. Compared to last year, sales were similar for the first 3 months of this year. For the past 30 days, sales are down 24%. Sales of 2-storey, single family homes under 1700 sq ft in the suburbs This year 2010 Apr 9 - May 8 216...(read more)

What happened in April?

Bob Truman — Sun, 01 May 2011 02:55:00 GMT

Sales were down 10% compared to last year, and are down 9% compared to the average of the past 3 years. New listings were down 25% compared to last year, and are down 19% compared to the average of the past 3 years. Inventory will be down year-over-year for the first time in 13 months. With 4395 active listings, it's 10% lower than last year. Median price is up $20,000(5%) compared to March, and is up $3,000(1%) compared to last year. That's the first year-over-year price increase since July....(read more)

Are there still bargains to be had?

Bob Truman — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 02:40:00 GMT

If you've been following the updates on Mike's blog , you'll know that it's possible to buy low and sell high, sometimes within months. He's been posting the "Investor Flips of the Day" results, where you can see such transactions are constantly happening. My clients did not buy to flip, but they could easily make a couple hundred thousand today. Last Oct, when year-over-year sales were down 31%, and the median price was at its lowest in 17 months, my clients bought...(read more)

Fill in the blank

Bob Truman — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 14:36:00 GMT

We had a lot of activity in the run-up to March 18, followed by a slowing of sales. This was supposed to be the end. The increase in prices coupled with lower sales was interpreted by many to be the final indicator of the coming crash correction. A quote from April 5, 2011: Increasing price on decreasing volume usually indicates that serious money has drifted off and an asset’s momentum is waning. Already teetering on the brink, any rise in interest rates would be the coup de grace which puts...(read more)

Developers will pay more, consequently buyers will pay more

Bob Truman — Sat, 16 Apr 2011 12:52:00 GMT

The city of Calgary has an agreement with the residential developers which will see more of the costs for water systems, roads, and transit paid by the developers. The developer industry has long said they’ll pass on higher fees directly to consumers, so it would amount to about $8,000 more for the average Calgary new home, based on the city’s density estimates. City officials and aldermen have warned that if the costs of suburban growth aren’t shouldered by home-builders and home-buyers,...(read more)

Trend reversal

Bob Truman — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 14:12:00 GMT

The March 18 deadline brought a lot of demand forward, and we saw a disproportionate number of sales in Feb and March. For the past 4 weeks, the urgency to buy diminished significantly, but for the first time in a month, we now see sales starting to come back to life, and new listings being more of a hot warm commodity. March 18: Countdown and aftermath “Tracking the urgency to buy” For homes listed in the past two weeks: Date Sold/pending avg per day Apr 8-12 131 Apr 1-7 115 Mar 25-31...(read more)