DailyStats.ca

Great to have the blog back!! Thanks Bob!

Welcome back, Bob! been waiting for weeks to be able to come on here and gloat:)

So glad to see the blog up and running. I went through serious withdrawal there for a couple months. "What's New" page was excellent, though, and thanks for all the great insight and details that we would never get anywhere else.

As for the market, that article in the Herald sums it up nicely. I knew last fall that we had nowhere near the exposure or problems that the the 'states had. Our econiomy in Alberta is too strong to have a crash.

Good to see your blog back up again Bob.

I'm not sure about the statement that 'our economy in Alberta is too strong to have a crash.'

Even though our economy is strong, it would seem that house price growth has totally outperformed actual growth in Alberta GDP per capita.

http://calgaryrealestatemarketblog.files.wordpress.com/2008/02/long_term_relationship_between_calgary_house_prices_and_alberta_economic_activity_diverge_large.png

As an "oldskool" member, I'd like to say, Welcome back Bob and to new members here.

Bob When you closed the blog in November there wasn't another good (non-biased either way) source of Calgary/Alberta real estate blog out there. I even tried albertabubbleblog! Argh, what a hypochondriac blog! What is the point of posting (or even joining) over there when it's so heavily moderated that you can't speak your mind (unless you think the sky is constantly falling!).

Honestly, I don't have a crystal ball of what's happening out there, it's a very neutral market. Lots of inventory for sure and selection, but prices are stable. Will we look back and say "that was the quiet before the bust" or "that was the quiet before the boom"?

Speaking of inventory I've noticed since November:

- Many many more R2 50' lots on the market

- More selection of good stuff. Not so many knockdowns!

- The suburbs have really built up inventory.

- Lots of builder new homes for sale and new never lived in 2007 homes.

- Some communities are GREAT buys like Valley Ridge, others (West Hillhurt/Hillhurst) not so at all.

- Good priced stuff is moving fast. eg. A $835k home in Scarboro went pending in 3 days.

Speaking of daily stats I visit Mike Fotiou's website on a daily basis because he updates stats daily.

I don't think "affordability" is stoping new buyers as much anymore. There is quite a lot of selection under $300k now and even inner-city stuff under $300k too. Look at London, England... try to buy ANY home there... it's at least x3 more expensive! A condo for $15 million anyone?

Honestly, Calgary real estate (from a ex-TO's perspective) was DIRT CHEAP in 2000. It just adjusted to market norms now. If you want DIRT CHEAP homes, check out Winnipeg. Homes for $50k.

I'd also like to note that it's great that there are still some smart developers looking at Calgary future, take 17th Avenue SW (Scarboro) side. Who wouldn't want a Red Mile Brownstone, with views, beside downtown and on the best entertainment avenue in the city??

Mike

BOB!!!!!!!!! Welcome back. Glad to have the blog back again. It was great of Mike to keep the stats up for us.

I have a question about City of Calgary Property Assessments for you. How accurate do you think they are? I've kind of been following them, and with the help of a realtor aquaintance. I gave him a list of the properties listed on mls in my neighborhood. With addresses and city assessed values and he just tallied up and told me the total number of them that sold at or over assessed value in Jan and Feb. Only 2 didn't hit the mark. The rest were at or over.

I know a lot of people who disregard assessments completely but in my neighborhood they seem to be bang on.

So here's the question. Can assessments be more accurate in one neighborhood than some other neighborhood???????? As you may remember I purchased in the area where all the redevelopement is happening.

For Al and Carol:I'm Loving being a condo owner. Small updates done, paint and decorating. I'm tempted to just hammer nails in the walls just because I can.lol.

Heather;

Thanks for all the exclamation marks! Assessments can be quite inaccurate. The city asssessments are as of July 1 when values were almost at their peak, so it's interesting to hear that the sales were equal to, or over, the assessed value. You'd think that most of them would be under.

Just now I did a random sample of nine recent sales in West Hillhurst. Five sold for more than the assessment, and four were under. And not by small amounts. One sold for 18% over the assessed value, and one sold for 17% under the assessed value.

We don't pay a lot of attention to assessments when evaluating a property. Recent comparable sales are still the best indicator of value.

Don't hit your thumb!

Bob

And as another "oldskool" member, I too am so glad to see you back Bob.  Welcome home!

I realize you still have a few kilometers to go on your skis, but none the less, it's really nice to hear your voice and the voices of some of loyal previous posters here, like Mike and Heather.  I'm absolutely certain a lot of the former contributors will soon be lined up to talk here. I'm really looking forward to it. This was just way too much of a fun blogsite, and I'm sure it will be very active again, very soon.

I wish I were more able than I am, to contribute like I did in the past. But ever since CREB changed its method of reporting, I still haven't been able to meld my old statistics to the new statistics.  So basically, I just can't give very many educated (or calculated) opinions these days.  It's like driving blindfolded.  I just can't do it.

But anyway, its just nice to hear friendly voices.  I look forward to hearing from some of the other awesome people who regularly dropped in for a chat so many months ago.

Heather, I'm particularly proud of you! Congrats on being a condo owner.  And if you want to drive a nail into the wall, go ahead girl, because its your home.  In fact, drive one in for me and hang a nice picture on it.

Al

Heather, if you don't mind, I'd like to give you my opinion about property assessments by the City.  Keep in mind that I was a realtor for 10 years, although that career ended 6 years ago.  None the less, I understand the world of real estate pretty good.  I also understand Mr. Truman's comments 100%, and from the first day this blogsite opened, I've never seen him say one single thing I didn't agree with. I mean, the guy just knows what he's talking about.  Bob certainly doesn't need any endorsement from me, especially since I'm an old phart now, but he sure does know his stuff.

The one thing you don't want, is for assessments to be all that accurate.  Geez, if it were up to the City of Cowtown to evaluate your home, we all could be in a lot of trouble.

Without a doubt, realtors totally ignore assessments.  It's the current market conditions and recent comparable sales in your neighbourhood, that will dictate what your home is worth.  Not the City!

Golly, about a year ago, one poster here said that he was so upset with the low assessment by the City on the value of his property... that he asked if he should contact the City and ask them to assess his property a whole lot higher.

He actually thought that would increase the value of his property.  Of course it wouldn't.  All that would have happened, is that he would have ended up paying more property taxes each year.

And about 6 posters were glad to quickly give him this advice: "Go ahead if you want to pay more taxes each year, but an increased assessment won't make your home worth a dollar more".  Great advice from all 6.

So I wouldn't pay one bit of attention to property assessments by the City.  They have absolutely nothing to do with affecting the value of your property.  The only way to know, is to keep track of what's selling in your neighbourhood this month, and for how many dollars.  That's what realtors do best.  lol

Again congrats!  Hang a picture of Al Bundy for me!

I've a question for you all, how's Coral Springs in the eyes of buyers, I find the price in this neighborhood  is quite affordable and inventory is relatively healthy. However, I can't seem to find the serious buyers. I'm not sure whether they're just sitting on the fence. your comment is greatly appreciated.

Great to see the Blog is back! As a daily reader of the Alberta RE blogs, the daily doom and gloom on the other blog gets a little tiring. That said, the Calgary RE market will be heading in a new direction. With all the inventory on the market it will only be a matter of time before prices level off and we will start to see discounting to move some of those homes.  I predict the prices will level off then fall slightly early summer as those hoping to sell in the spring get a little more anxious. As well, this is the time when alot of downtown condo purchasers (investors??) take possession of their new digs. Is the sky falling, is the crash coming? NO, NO, NO, far from it. Alberta is the best positioned of any Canadian province, all US states, and most of the world, to weather any economic storm on the horizon and continue to attract talented, creative and hard working people from around the world. Interesting times ahead.

RE: Assessment Values.

When buying and looking for a property, I myself, ALWAYS look at the assessed value of the property. In fact, depending on how much more a seller is asking vs. their assessed value I cross it off my list.

I base all my "deals" I want to look at on their assessed value vs. asking price.

That being said, I myself complained last year about my low assessment (to friends, not to the city)... and guess what? My assessment went up 80%! (that folks is a 50% greater tax bill) Ouch. But now I can't complain as it's pretty accurate.

I see in the inner-city that MOST sellers are asking around their new assessment prices. Some sellers have RAISED their prices in the inner-city as their assessments went up so much.

Mike

Johnny, Coral Springs is nothing more than any other neighbourhood. I hate to tell you, but your neighbourhood is nothing special.  No neibourhood is special.  The market affects all neighbourhoods.  A rising tide lifts all boats.  And a lowering tide drops all boats.  

Keep in mind that the serious buyers always come out in the spring.  So be patient.  The buyers, in droves, are just around the corner.  Trust me... wait a month.  This (spring) is the time to sell, if you want to sell.

Al Bundy

Bob,

Good to have the blog back.  Now that Natural gas is on the rise and above $9 (and at a 2 year high) I honestly believe that these RE prices are here to stay.  If Natural Gas and Oil continue their insane price increases, RE will not stand a chance of going any lower than it is now in Alberta.  I know we had negative migration last year, but I think we will see a reverse trend this year as company start drilling more for Natural Gas than last year.  The inventories have not had an addition for 14 straight weeks and are now lower than the 5 year average, and lower than last years levels at this time.  That means in a full year, the USA was unable to store any more natural gas.  What does that mean?  I think it means that we are at a stand still, the amount of Nat Gas being used right now is the same that is being produced, worse, it doesn't even break even, we are drawing supplies every week.  I know this will stop once things start warming up but I don't see Nat Gas going back to in the $6 range any time soon.

As we speak companies are recruiting workers, and good thing we have all this inventory, we'll need it when they all start shopping in the Spring.

Uncle Pirate, it's nice to meet you.

We don't need to read about doom and gloom.  It's in the news every day and is spun into scary news every day.  All channels of the main stream media all report the exact same thing every night, and at the same time.  Who is writing their pages?

What we need to do, is to stay in touch with reality.  That's critically important for all of us.  Stay in touch with reality, and understand what's really going on in the world.  No doubt, the American economy is headed into the tank.

Imagine you are a poor African, or a poor Senegalese person.  Where would you want to live, if you had to move somewhere?  Probably Canada.

On the world stage, Canada is absolutely spectacular, in every respect.  Everybody from every nation on earth has their target on Canada, and for obvious reasons.

You're right Uncle Pirate, Alberta is a heck of a nice place to live.  And as the world crashes further, which it will, no person could find a better place to live than in Alberta (of all places in the world, Alberta will be the ultimate place to be).

Sure, the Carribean is soft and warm and pretty.  But although Alberta might appear as a hard and cold and beautiful province, it is not hard, nor cold.  The truth is that Alberta is the most undiscovered piece of this planet, of all time.

Europeans are finding that out big time.  Asians found that out 20 years ago. (See Vancouver).

Home is where you are safe.  And you are safe here in Canada. Within Canada, Alberta or B.C. are where you will be safest.  I'd buy there, in fact, I have.  In fact, that's where all my money is.

Al

Do you guys realize that there is 4 months' supply on the market and rising?  and that sales aren't?  hopefully you'll be right about a huge jump in sales when it warms up, if the listings show up without a BIG sales jump we're in for who knows what...

Hi there everyone!

Bob, welcome back!! Welcome back everyone else!!! Our daily fix is back. No insights to offer on my first post. Just happy to be back....:)

Still waiting on the market sidelines by the way.

Mike how did it go with selling your home? Carol, did you finally find something?

Bob, well done on the 910Km, that is amazing determination. Good luck with the rest!

Lola;

Nice to hear from you. I didn't know if all the "old reg'lars" would be back, but I see everyone is slowly checking in.

910K just doesn't sound right to me. It will be so much nicer to be able to say 1000. Pray for one more month of snow!

Bob

My understanding of the number of listing is that the number is special this time. Please recall what happened back in Oct 07. I noticed that many people who built a new house had to list both their existing house and the newly built and hope at least one will be sold. It makes the number of listings artifically high. Or put in other way, when one is sold, two listings will be reduced.

As far as what will happen down the road. I believe this year will be different. Let's consider the supply of new buildings. The market had been hot till July or August last year. Many people were still building new houses till the end of July. If we assume hat it takes a year to build a new house. we find the the supply of the brand new or vacant from the flippers will end in July or Aug 2008. I therefor deduct that the price will somehow fluctuate up and down till July. And as soon as we enter the Autumn, the supply will decrease, and create a tight market. The price will start to increase in Autumn, versus the previous several years when the price starts to decrease in the autumn.

Plus the natural gasprice just start to pick up the wind. Would Autumn be mature enough to feel the natural gas' impact?

I don't know. But I want to hear from you all

Thank you.

Not sure if natural gas prices are going to pick up.  I can tell you why there was no gas added to storage (at least for our company).

First of all normally gas is bought and stored in the summer when prices are low and then pulled from storage in the winter when prices are high.  The prices were so low all winter that instead of pulling from storage in this winter, the gas storages remained packed full all winter.  In fact, we were still filling some of our storage in October for $6.00/mmbtu which shouldn't happen.  This was the case for almost all of our pipelines.  

Now how this relates to housing, I don't know.  If you believe housing prices and natural gas prices are correlated don't bank of natural gas prices shooting up anytime soon.  I am not sure exactly what happened in February yet but I know prices have already come down quite a bit from December to January.

Hello,

first time poster, I have visited the other blog and it can get depressing.  Glad there is another blog I can go to and not experience doom and gloom all the time. Glass half full or half empty?

My take on Calgary's market regarding sales is that there is less migration to Calgary from other provinces now than years before, so less buyers. And also factor in some panic and speculator buying the last couple years which inflated the amount of sales at that time.  The amount of sales we have now are a better indication of the market. I believe yoy sales will be down.  But still healthy.

As for prices, I believe they will follow a pattern similiar to last year.  Immigrants from other countries can now buy RE easier than before.  Remember, even though provincial immigration was negative, overall immigration to the province was something like 15000 last quarter.  New immigrants also find owning a home a very high priority.  Since last June, wages have gone up, mortgage interest rates will be goin down and again in March, and house prices are about 40k or so lower.  Affordability is better for people this year than last year and for people sitting on the fence on buying, they will come out.

When it comes to inventories, I think we will see an alltime high this year.  But builders are slowing down and will be adding less to the market.  A small percentage of people list 2 homes to sell 1. And despite what the doom and gloomers say, people are still buying homes and will continue to do so. New people to the area and first time buyers will be entering the market. This will eventually cut inventory, but I will say later than sooner at the moment.

I agree the trouble in the US is something we can not turn a blind eye.  And I know it will affect Alberta somewhat, but who knows how much.  I will say that Alberta and Sask have what the world wants and needs and are best insulated from an economic storm.  If the US continues in the crapper in the next few years, expect thousands of manufacturing jobs in the East to be cut.  With the labor shortage expected in the West in the next few years, positive provincial migration will be back, and possibly big time.  But remember that not everybody will be able to buy because housing in the East would be depressed.

Eddie;

Welcome to the blog! I think you've analysed the situation very accurately.

Bob

Al Bundy - "No neibourhood is special.  The market affects all neighbourhoods.  A rising tide lifts all boats.  And a lowering tide drops all boats."

I think I have to disagree with you Al on this, although all I have is my own research and opinon, but the closer you are to downtown the "firmer" the prices hold or even go up. That said, the more "presigious" the community is then it seems to positively affect this even more so. And so do quadrants like NE, SE, SW and NW. Those 2 letters seem to -/+ change prices as well. Maybe it also has something to do with the land cost under the home and not so much with the house cost itself...

Hutz - GREAT points about natural gas! I've read here that a lot of our Alberta economy is actually natural gas more so than oil. So, with natural gas going up, Alberta economy booms and thus, I'd agree, home prices would be here to stay. We could have a lot of inventory on the market because people are worried and feel they need to "sell" in the "down" market? hummm... make the market better, will people feel "better" about not selling??

I also learned something new last night as well I'd like to share with you all. That's the "active rig count". I was mistaken in thinking that the "rigs" were for all oil activity BUT, it's NOT. They use the drilling rigs just for "conventional sweet crude oil". THAT stuff has been dwindling for the past 15 years! So don't listen to those "rig count" numbers meaning the oil sands are doing bad, they don't use drilling rigs in the oil sands.

Lola - Welcome back! Well, as we know the market wasn't good in the end of last year. I started too high and by the time I adjusted my price, it was too late for the market. That being said, I am currently selling my home on my own, I had an offer on Wednesday and (knock on wood) will have a counter offer by another buyer this morning. :)  Then it's looking at more expensive homes to invest in next. Yes, even in this market I'm with Al, I'll put my million dollars on the table (lots a mortgage there) with good confidence that Alberta is the place to buy a home in Canada for today and for the future.

little immigrant - Refreshing and interesting points about 1/2 the listings being from the same seller. I could see some numbers being there for that for sure.

Mike

P.S. Ah, this blog is a good daily fix indeed.

Yes Mike, this blog is better than a morning cup of coffee.  A fix indeed!

I read Eddie Van Halen's comment, and I agree with it for the most part.  Welcome Eddy!  The glass is half full on this blogsite, always.

Vinny, my own son is working in the oil patch, and my cousin is a vice president of one the the biggest oil companies in the world.  I can't say his name, nor the the company because you would immediatly recognize him.  I just can't do that.  But I can say this:  everything you said was bang on the money.

Gas prices are going to go up!

And Mike, a friendly banter with you was always so uplifting and enlightening.  And so it shall be again.  Nice to hear your voice and your well thought out opinions.  It's nice to be with friends again.

Al

Eddie, although you are happy to come to this blogsite which isn't all doom and gloom, this blogsite is as real as it gets.

This blogsite has no agenda.  We only speak what we think. The moderator of this blogsite basically leaves us alone.  It's a friendly and honest place.  Like your own living room.  I've always thought of this blogsite as being in front of a roaring fireplace in Waterton or Banff, with bottles of wine on the table, and snowflakes as big as pancakes coming down.  This is a very friendly place.

Where friends share opinions.

There is no other blogsite like this one... in my opinion.

Al

Wow, that felt good. I haven't posted here in ages.  I make one posted and now I'm constantly itching to.  

I think we all missed this, not just me.

While prices of natural gases are debately, I don't think there is any doubt that gasoline prices are going up.  I can't remember if it was mentioned on this forum months ago or some other forum but somebody mentioned that high gas prices affects the prices of the satellite communities as it makes the commute more expensive and less attractive.

I also agree that certain communities are selling better than others.  The area we are living in is completely saturated with houses making our house almost impossible to sell.  While my realtor said he has listings in other areas that are moving pretty good.  He said up until a few months ago houses in the NE were worth about as much as the other areas (not including by the university and inner core areas).  Now the NE is beginning to fall behind again.  He could be making this up but that was his assessment.

Al Bundy, I'm glad you can confirm my info.  Natural gas is the only part of O & G I am knowledgable in as that is what I do accounting for.  However if you ask me about Oil I can only pass 2nd hand information.  Nice to see you online after the winter hibernation.

Al, Bob and all,

thanks for the welcome.  I agree with you, Canada is the best country to live, and Alberta has so much to offer economically and lifestyle wise. Looking forward to hearing others opinions and contributing my insite.

Go Oilers (next year....ok maybe the year after, but watch out then)

Bob,

How soon do you think you'll take the stats over again.  Mike is doing a good job but I think some of us are just used to seeing it on this website.

Vinny; I am hoping that Mike can continue. It will free up some time for me to work on a new project that you are all going to enjoy. I mentioned last fall before I went skiing for the winter that I had something special in mind for the spring. Stay tuned. -Bob

Just to point out something on one of your stat lines.  You said the % of vacant homes is decreasing.  While this is true it can be misleading to people who are not following the market closely.  The total number of vacant homes has actually increased but it is not keeping up with the number of new listings entering the market.  So if somebody is not reading this line carefully they may actually think the number of houses vacant have decreased.  I just thought I would point this out.

Vinny; You're correct, overall there are more unoccupied homes on the market, but fewer of the new listings are unoccupied, or, lots of the older listings are selling. I started keeping track of these last year when someone requested the stats. Now that we have a year to look back and compare, do you think they tell us anything?

Bob

How is this blog as real as it gets? What is happening in the world around us is negative!! That is the reality. Wake up!!! And to think that Calgary will not be affected is just not economically soung thinking. Anything that is negative on this blog is removed. I bet this comment will be edited or be removed at some point in time.

Tina,Tina Tina!

Have you looked at the previous posts and comments? There's plenty of comments from all across the spectrum. People can post any comment their little heart desires, as long as it is respectful and does not include insults. Our purpose here is to be educational and to give insight by sharing ideas that we may not have previously considered, in a friendly and helpful way. Mean-spiritedness attracts mean-spirited people, and life's too short to spend it being miserable and ugly to your fellow man and woman.  I like to create an atmosphere that will make people feel welcome to participate. Putting your character on display by being nasty does not help you make a credible argument.  

I get the sense that you think comments which say the prices will decrease are considered negative. I don't look at it that way at all. Thoughtful, insightful comments which educate us are, in my mind, neutral. I've made numerous comments of my own that predicted price decreases. I'm not being negative when I do that, just realistic.

I do have a problem with people who are single-mindedly obsessed with their own predictions and are blind to other opinions. I could give you a dozen statements from people who were 100% sure that the market was going to crash by now. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. It's your responsibility to take the wheat and get rid of the chaff.

As I've said before, you can disagree without being disagreeable.

Bob

i just don't get it, when the marked slowed the last few days this blog was open, nobody could be found, now that the market has moved a bit all the experts are back.. inventory is up and sales are down %40. now that is a big number... how do you account for the price increase and the rosey market with that HUGE  drop in sales.. how could prices be up and the market healthy if there is %40 cut in sales.. now alot of business would ge bankrupt with a decrease like that. also , how come no one ever mentions the discounts, and offers that are advertised there to create a sale... free cars,,, cash back..etc..  PLEASE SOMEONE ANSWER, DON'T ERASE THIS COMMENT OR LET IT SLIDE BY... %40 LESS HOUSES ARE SELLING.. BUT I GUESS YOU GUYS ONLY COUNT THE MILLIOND DOLLAR HOMES THAT AVERAGE FOLKS CAN NOT AFFORD...  also invetory is waaaaaaaaay up.

You bet Eddie,

I'm a fan.  Not an Oilers fan, I'm a Flames fan. But I'm also a fan of good people, and of sharing good thoughts.  I'm especially a fan of being friends.

Nice to hear you voice Vinny. Although we haven't spoken much lately, you still make a ton of sense in my mind.

And finally... Alberta is surely the place to live.  That's why I live here.

Love to all,

Al