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Where are homes selling the quickest? Where have prices dropped least? Where have sales improved over last year?

It's been repeated a number of times that statistics for the entire city do not paint an accurate picture for individual communities. This table shows that sales in Evergreen, Bridlewood and Somerset are up 8% compared to last year. It also shows that inventory in Sundance,  Midnapore, Chaparral, Cranston, and McKenzie Lake is selling a lot quicker than the average.

As Frank mentioned in the previous post, get a good realtor to help you. One who can give you accurate stats for the area of your concern.

Some real surprises here, especially in the inner city.

This is a random sampling only. No other communities were checked.

For the 30-day period ending July 26, 2008, for single family homes:

Area

Change in Sales price per Sq Ft Compared to 2007*

Change in Sales Volume Compared to 2007

Absorption Rate**

Tuscany, Rocky Ridge, Royal Oak

-5%

-14%

4.2

Country Hills, Coventry Hills, Harvest Hills, Panorama Hills

-6%

-10%

4.2

NW Inner City

-7%

-22%

6.6

Sundance, Midnapore, Chaparral, Cranston, McKenzie Lake

-7%

-15%

3.4

Evergreen, Bridlewood, Somerset

-8%

+8%

4.2

Saddleridge, Castleridge, Taradale, Martindale, Falconridge

-11%

-10%

4.8

SW Inner City

-12%

-25%

8.2

*For 2-storey homes only

**This is the number of months it would take to sell the present inventory. On July 28, the absorption rate for the entire city stands at 5.2

Posted: Monday, July 28, 2008 8:10 AM by Bob Truman

Comments

dvrvd said:

I am curious what neighbourhoods are included in SW inner city?

It includes the communities within these boundaries:

North of Glenmore Trail.
East of Sarcee Trail.
South of the Bow River.
West of MacLeod Trail.

- Bob

# July 28, 2008 12:43 PM

One of A Kind said:

very interesting Bob! looks like inner city slipped a bit.

Good info , and thanks as always !

# July 28, 2008 4:35 PM

Bob Truman said:

A turning point was reached today. The pending sales are higher than they were last year on this date.

What does that mean? Going into August, we have more sales in the pipeline than we had last year.

Single family home sales were down 34% to May 31. June was down 18%. July is down 14%.

The average list price of the pending sales is $469,261, so you can expect the average sold price to stay near today's average of $455,000.

# July 28, 2008 7:59 PM

Bob Truman said:

The evolution of statistics continues. One year ago, we still were using average price as the main indicator of the market. My latest online poll indicates that only 7% believe average price is the best. Median price and sales price per sq ft has overtaken the average price as the best indicator of the market. It's interesting to look back, and see that August 2007 was when I added median price to the daily stats. There's a good blog entry from last year on that very subject:

Blog comments from Aug 2007

As well, you can see a cross-section of other comments from one year ago.

# July 29, 2008 10:01 AM

dvrvd said:

Sometimes you have to shake your head at the financial decisions people make:

'Extreme Makeover' house faces foreclosure

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D927JS2O0&show_article=1

There is no law against stupidity. - Bob

# July 29, 2008 10:29 AM

Carl said:

I see the bubble bloggers have your schedule all planned for you...

"I predict that Bob will go on an extended cross country ski trip this year come say Oct, Nov and Dec."

He's really going out on a limb there. Brave and fearless. Predicting that I will go skiing this winter is like announcing that the sun will rise in the east tomorrow. In fact, I recently purchased a brand new pair of Fischer RCS's and I can't wait to try them out. Yes, buy your skis in the summer - lots of inventory, little demand.

Who made that long-shot prediction? Do you think he'd let me go early, maybe in September? You can roller-ski any time of the year. And what's with December? Maybe we'll be lucky and have snow 'til May.

Now would that person have the guts to make a prediction on the housing market? I think there is an underlying implication that as soon as prices drop, I will be gone(haven't they dropped already?). In years past, we started skiing when the snow arrived. Now, we go when the median price reaches a certain level? Bizarre. Give me a figure and I promise I'll go skiing when the price reaches your pre-determined amount. Now there's a good idea for a poll. -Bob

# July 29, 2008 12:19 PM

Jerry said:

Bob, those are some mighty amazing stats you posted. I had no idea that conditions could be so divergent in the same city. Looks like Garth Turner's forecast of the death of the suburbs was premature. Can you do those stats for the west side of town? Coach Hill, Cougar ridge area?

For Coach Hill, Patterson, Strathcona Park, Cougar Ridge & West Springs:

Sales price per sq ft: -8%

Sales volume: +11%

Absorption rate: 4.1

# July 29, 2008 3:47 PM

Peek Oyle said:

Bob, your biggest fan(Jim S) on the bubble blog thinks I'm you. He also thinks Ping is you. . He also thinks Pierre is you. Dvrvd, blah blah. Speaking of Pierre, did you ever commence an investigation into the threats you received? Jim's pretty proud of the fact that he received top billing on your blog.

I will have some news for you in the near future on that. Can't say anything more right now, except that Jim will have even more notoriety.

You're joining a select club. Ping posts some awesome comments on here, and DVRVD, the maggot-faced specuvestor LOL has been a long-time poster here offering some very good insights. - Bob

# July 29, 2008 6:23 PM

Bob Truman said:

A new question has been posted Take_My_Online_Poll/. Only go there if you have a sense of humour.

# July 29, 2008 7:07 PM

Janice said:

What about me? He's accused me of being Bob. I'd like some recognition here.

Can you run those stats for the Beddington MacEwan area?

Don't feel left out. He's accused half the city of Calgary of being me!

Sales volume: -15%

Price change: -6%

Absorption rate: 3.2

I included Beddington, MacEwan, Sandstone, Thorncliffe, and Huntington Hills.  - Bob

# July 29, 2008 7:54 PM

Tony said:

Why No one talk about Douglas Glen? This area the houses sold very quick as well, the reason is that Jacobs just move 2000 people work here in their Quarry Park building.

It's a pretty small community on its own to do a one-month comparison. There was only one sale in the past 30 days. Going back three months;

Douglas Glen

Sales volume: -37%

Price change: -8%

Absorption rate: 13

# July 29, 2008 10:12 PM

Al Bundy said:

The first such accusation was that I was Bob Truman. I wouldn't have even noticed had Bob not given me a heads up that they were talking about me on their blogsite, which I didn't even know existed.  That first accusation was probably made because I posted quite often here, at the beginning, and that I agreed too much with Bob. But when my posts dropped in frequency from sometimes more than one a day, to once every two weeks or so, the BBers started naming other people.  God only knows why they do this?  They've even tried to impersonate some of us by submitting a post with a username that was almost identical to ours.  They've done that on other blogs too.

Many of the original posters here don't seem to participate much at this time, although I'm sure they drop in to read the comments.  For example, it was nice to see Ether's comment on the last topic.  We haven't heard from him in a long time... too long.

And just for kicks, I'm going to agree with Bob Truman once more.  Ping and dvrvd and Peek Oyle (aka "Olive") do indeed write some very interesting and well though out posts.  Keep it up guys (gals)!

# July 30, 2008 7:08 AM

tracy said:

Thanks for this blog, its hard to find a good calgary real estate blog. I was just wondering how Citadel faired up, currently looking for a place in that area.

Thanks!

These stats for Citadel include the past two months compared to the same two months of 2007. As in my table, the price change is based on 2-storey homes:

Price per sq ft: -4%

Sales volume: -33%

Absorption rate: 4.0

Considering the big drop in sales volume, the price seems to be holding up relatively well.

See comment below from Green. Bob

# July 30, 2008 10:02 AM

Ping said:

Me being Bob? If one were to ever see us on the street together it would be a genetic mutation that would make a geneticist/scientist proud. But ppl want to believe what they fervously want to believe. Eventually in their minds, it becomes the truth. 2nd year engineering taught us never to distort the truth and let the facts speak to us and that is one of the basis of science.

Since this is a real estate site, let the statistics speak to us. All else we read in the media, blogsites including this one, and ppl we talk to are just hear say, innuendos, and double-speak. They may be right OR they may be wrong. We read and hear advise but it is up to us to decide whether the information is credible or even believable. Do you know that we cannot trust everything in WIKIPEDIA as the source who wrote them can be weak or maybe a little misinformed. SO...to that end, free information or advise is just that FREE. Take it with a grain of salt but at the same time if everyone thinks the same, one might be up to something.

I must say credit and admiration would be given to those who put their wisdom on the line for others to judge (Bulls and Bears). You know who you are. It is community to me to have ppl posts their feelings, thoughts and perhaps a crack of insight to the current and everyday situation for Calgary and Canada as a whole in every aspect of life - hence in my own selfish interest and hobby, real estate.

# July 30, 2008 10:54 AM

CKW said:

Bob, We moved to the city 18 months ago and ended up renting as we couldn't find a suitable house right away. We're comfortably renting month to month, ready to pounce when we think the prices are settled. Due to school boundaries and our desire to keep our children in their current schools, we're tied to Edgemont/Hamptons. Can you comment on the price change in these neighborhoods? We appreciate the work that you and Mike do to educate home owners/buyers. Thanks!

You must be pretty happy that you waited to buy. I wish I could tell you when the prices will be settled but my crystal ball is not functioning properly when it comes to real estate in Calgary. 

These stats for the Edgemont-Hamptons area are for the past two months compared to the same two months last year:

Price per sq ft: -10%

Sales volume: -8%

Absorption rate: 4.7

Those numbers are pretty typical for the city except for the sales volume. This area seems to be doing a little better considering entire city sales are down about 16% in June-July.

# July 30, 2008 3:41 PM

Green said:

For what it's worth, I've always liked Edgemont and the Hamptons.  Citadel, not so much.  With the new Stoney Trail nearing completion, tracy might want to consider other areas between Citadel and Deerfoot Trail.  They were building single family homes in Evanston for $299,000 recently.

That being said, you could make a lot worse decision than Citadel.  Coventry has taught us that proximity to shopping, restaurants and transit really, really helps property values.  

# July 30, 2008 10:29 PM

tracy said:

Thanks Bob and Green.

I was concerned about the new Stoney Trail as well. The reason for Citadel is because we are looking for a 2 bedroom condo within 10 minutes for Crowfoot with good public transportation available. (I am disabled and need to take a bus to Crowfoot) It kinda narrows where we can look.

Great Blog!

Tracy; The numbers I gave you were for single family homes, so I've ran the stats for condos in Citadel over the past  3 months.

Price per sq ft: -6%

Sales volume: -32%

Absorption Rate: 7.8

There are 27 2-bdrm condos for sale in Citadel today. - Bob

# July 31, 2008 7:14 AM

Gritty said:

Bob, what are the Chestermere numbers?

Contact my colleague, Mike Fotiou, for Chestermere data. He's more familiar with that area. www.findcalgary.ca - Bob

# August 3, 2008 9:01 AM

Erin said:

Great collection of Stats!

I'm currently looking in the Connaught or Victoria Park areas and I would love to see the stats there.  However, since the majority of properties are Condos, the SFH stats wouldn't tell me much.  Is there an equivalent stat for Condos?

Erin; here are the numbers for Connaught and Victoria Park for the past 30 days(compared to last year):

Price per sq ft: -7%

Sales volume: -21%

Absorption Rate: 8.4

There are 252 condos for sale in Vic Park and Connaught today. If you need further help, my colleague, Kendall Curle has been in at least 500 condos this year. He knows that market well. Call him any time 403-809-1101. Good luck with your search!- Bob

# August 25, 2008 11:33 AM
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