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The snow falls, each snowflake in its appropriate place*

Snow tires are on, skis are waxed. I love winter and am eagerly anticipating that first big snowfall. In two days, this blog will go into hibernation. Where did the summer go? 

From the previous topic a reader has posed this probing question. He said "Why would you, a realtor that works at commission, not an economist, not a market analyst but bob Truman the salesman knows better than all the pros?"

After predicting the prices with uncanny accuracy in 2007, it would be a feat of unimaginable insight and clairvoyance to do it two years in a row, in these turbulent markets, so let's see how this year's prediction turned out:

In January 2008, I predicted the 30-day median price would rise as high as $430,500 and fall as low as $389,500 this year. So far, the price has been as high as $428,000(Feb), and the low is $390,000(today).

In the Calgary Herald yesterday, it said "Much attention, understandably so, is being paid to economic experts and what they have to say..." It goes on to say, "They get it right only 40 per cent of the time."

Now to answer your question of why I know better than the pros. I don't really consider it a part of my job description to predict the future. I take no credit for an accurate and lucky guess, but I do operate at a different level of consciousness than they do. They are entrenched in the structures of existing institutions which imprison the mind, and they continue to perpetuate the dysfunction in their work.

Do you ever wonder why I was the first one to give out free information to an extent never before thought possible by anyone? Information that was guarded and protected and not to be trusted in the hands of the masses? Maybe just a coincidence.

Most experts are operating under the prevailing thought that the only measure of progress is always more. The cancerous cell's only goal is to multiply itself until it consumes its host. We have been slow to learn that a paradigm shift in our attitudes and behavior will be necessary, not only for the economy, but for the survival of the planet. Will the recent financial crisis awaken people to the dysfunction of the modus operandi?

It's been a lot of fun, and I thank everyone for their comments. I look forward to re-connecting with you in the spring. In the mean time, you can visit my cross-country ski blog Ski Here.

*The blog title is a Zen saying which is appropriate for this time of year, and is dedicated to all who were angry and insulting. Life will give you whatever experience is most helpful for the evolution of your consciousness. If you listen. Idea

Posted: Thursday, October 30, 2008 1:35 PM by Bob Truman

Comments

meo said:

WOW....

Truly, Bob Truman is a very smart, illuminated guy who should be running for PM office... or at least become our finance minister.

Here is this commission based sales guy...not even a real job!!!!

Bob T is not an university educated graduate with an economic thesis, nothing.

Bob could be selling electrolux vacuum cleaners door to door but he sells homes.

Bob, please bob... if the market's so hot please sell that crappy duplex. Don't go away skiing but please sell that crappy duplex that you CLAIM has good return on the investment!!!

Bob T is running away from town because if Bob is sooooo smart he should be running!!!

Bob is running which gots to mean that the RE market died in Calgary...

What about the owner of that duplex, Bob?

What about the false hopes and promises that the poor seller had because of you, Bob???
Update: The duplex sold quickly and for above list price. The seller was very pleased. -Bob

Happy skiing, Bob!

watch for those trees, Bob!

Meo, you sound as if you are in a lot of distress.

Whenever you are in a distressed and negative state, there is something in you that wants the negativity, or that believes it will get you what you want. Meo, what is it that you want? Your resentment of another person's success curtails your own chance of success. In order to attract success, you need to welcome it wherever you see it.

Why do you find it necessary to belittle people? If selling electrolux is a job that someone has chosen and they get satisfaction from it, what is wrong with that? Does it make you feel bigger and superior to criticize and condemn? I have a feeling that your continuing need for superiority is an unconscious fear of inferiority. - Bob

# October 30, 2008 8:54 PM

kman said:

bob, thanks for everything. i hope you have a great winter. My prediction for when we re connect in the spring is that the calgary housing market would have seen the outcome of what is happening now. I predict a down fall of the RE market by 15-to 20%by spring time. There are alot of hidden factors that will not show till then, just like what we see now is the outcome from six months ago. it takes a while for the recent results to show.

# October 31, 2008 12:42 AM

Toronto Bear said:

Damn you Bob.  Guys like you and Paul Boenisch are making it hard for me to say that all realtors are scum! LOL!.

Seriously, if there were more in your profession like you, our market, and our country, would be a much better place.

Hope you have a great holiday season and the snowflakes fall in all the right places at the right times.

Many years back I did one of those personality profiles that is supposed to tell you what occupations you would be good at. I remember one of my characteristics, which made me unsuitable for working in a large corporate structure, was "change agent."  So, how best to be a change agent in this industry? Set an example. Consequently, you have this website and blog.

In my younger days, I would have been very frustrated by the inertia, lack of foresight and slow progress. I am under no illusions, and I know these things take a lot of time, but someone has to get the ball rolling. As Tommy Douglas said, "I would rather fail in a cause that I know will some day succeed, than to succeed in a cause that I know will one day fail."

I'm open to suggestions on what I can do next. - Bob

# October 31, 2008 7:17 AM

Jerry said:

You don't fit the mould, as Toronto Bear so aptly mentioned. Too bad the year didn't end today - your predicion would have been almost perfect.

I have a question - how representitive of the general population are bloggers? Do you think we see an accurate picture and a good cross-section of people? Or are we all just looking for attention?

Hope you get your 1000k in. Thanks for the great info.

I think you can pretty well judge that from the comments. Similar to people in everyday life, some are polite, some are thoughtful, some are very analytical, some are very angry, some are loud and obnoxious, and yes, some are addicted to the attention. You can get an excellent read on someone's self-esteem by the way they react. Someone who needs attention, anonymously at that, must be functioning at a different level.

Clients who have come to me through the website are invariably people who I easily connect with and that is because they already know me by how I interract on here. It's not in anybody's interests to work together if you are not a good fit, and this is a terrific screening device.

My prediction was simply based on what I could see happening. Take all the variables, mix and process, and voila! I'm pretty sure it'll be out the window by the end of November. It looks to me like we''ll drop a bit more by the end of the year. Considering the volatility, I'm quite happy that it held out for 10 months. - Bob

# October 31, 2008 8:16 AM

Cyrus said:

Hello Bob. I have been following your blog for quite some time and have to thank you for the time you put in by disclosing this information. Very valuable!

Also, hopefully we will run into each other around Pocaterra Hut this winter or the cookie race. I've skied everywhere across Canada, US and Europe and nothing beats K-Country!

Hi! Nice to hear from a fellow cross-country skier. I remember we talked at Hawkridge.

My all-time favourite ski trip is the 18K loop in K-Country at the south end. The strenuous climb up Whiskey Jack, the spectacular scenery along Tyrwhitt and the huge, fluffy pillows of snow through the meadows. Flying down Elk Pass, then the pleasant meandering trail through the trees on Fox Creek and Boulton Creek. I'll do this trip seven or eight times in a winter.  

That downhill stretch from the top of Whiskey Jack to the Pocaterra hut is about as much fun as you can have on a pair of skis. I've skied in some other areas and I agree, nothing compares to K-Country .

Any thoughts on your chances to make it to the Olympics? Say hi if you see me at the hut.

By the way, have you heard if there's any snow yet on Moraine Lake road or the Great Divide?- Bob

# October 31, 2008 11:50 AM

Bob Truman said:

Cyrus, I just read your blog. Congratulations on being Alberta Provincial Road Champion. Excellent and entertaining report you gave. Now I know why I'm so slow on skis; I guess I'm supposed to be training during the summer!? - Bob

# October 31, 2008 1:34 PM

Bob Truman said:

Oct Stats Update

Sales in October were down 26% compared to Oct 2007. Year-to-date sales are down 25%.

The median price in Oct at $390,000 is down $5,000 or 1.3% from Sep.  It's down 5.5% from Oct 2007 when it was $412,500.

The average price in Oct at $449,100 is up $5,052 or 1.1% from Sep. It's down .7% compared to Oct 2007.

Sales price per sq ft at $290 is down 1.7% from Oct's $295, and down 4.6% from Oct 2007.

The year-to-date average price is down 2.3% and the median is down 3.1%.

Inventory on Oct 31 was 5522. That's up 2.5% from Sep. Down 22% from the high in May when it was 7099, and is .1% higher than it was last year. 

We've averaged 102 price reductions per day for the last week in Oct. Last month it was 114, and in the last week of May it was 153. 

The absorption rate in Oct was 6.9. The absorption rate varies dramatically from area to area in Calgary. Absorption rate tells you how many months it will take to sell the inventory. A rate of 6.9 is considered a buyer's market. 

Average days on the market(DOM) in Oct was 48, three days less than Sep.  It was 40 last year. 

2.4%, or 20 of October's sales were for $1 million or more. Last year, it was 1.6%, or 18.

9% of the homes listed in October have a sale or a conditional sale.

Condo median and average price rose slightly in Oct over Sep. Condo median price is down 7.3% compared to Oct 2007. Condo sales were down 20% compared to Sep. Year-to-date condo sales are down 30%.

# November 1, 2008 12:19 AM

Bob Truman said:

Did the end of 0 down/40 year mortgages on Oct 15 affect the number of sales? Sales in the last half of October were down 2% compared to the first half.

Combined SFH and condo sales were 617 from Oct 1 - 15 with a median price of $350,000. From Oct 16 - 31 there were 603 sales with a median price of $350,000.

# November 1, 2008 12:47 AM

Cyrus said:

Hello Bob. Thanks for the support! I remember talking to you at Hawkridge too but I didn't connect the dots to your professional persona.

I wouldn't exactly call bike racing in the summer training. Perhaps over-training.

No word yet on snow on Moraine according to my brother. I'm in Kelowna these days so hoping to head over to Silver Star for some early season skinny ski action! Think snow.

# November 2, 2008 6:42 PM

Toronto Bear said:

Wow, looks like the end of 0/40 had little to no effect on the sales rate.  The rather sudden drop in sales activity is thus likely due to an overall change in sentiment, likely due to all the bad* economic news in press as of late.  

*I for one thing the impending recession is going to be a good thing, as long as it doesn't get out of hand.  Not only b/c it will decrease home prices but b/c it will hopefully rid the system of waste and excess and promote use of alternative energy sources.

 

# November 2, 2008 9:08 PM

One Of A Kind said:

Hey Bob I am jealous you get to go do something you like while I can't (yet). Have a fun time out there!

I agree with your thoughts on real estate , its hard to be perfect but because your in the thick of it your take has a lot of weight.

For myself I hope things come down more so my girlfriend and I can buy, but we are moving on with life and are not that focus anymore on getting a house. It will happen for us one day , we will just continue to save for it.

Look forward to your return in the spring so we can chat about the market again. This is always fun to read and get the thoughts of others about our great city we all love. Yes Calgary is different because we are different.

# November 3, 2008 6:13 AM

Ping said:

Thanks Bob,

You've given us a forum to vent, share, and make arm chair comments about everything that seems to be on ppl's minds these days. What I get from this blog are insight(s) taken at face value to what "other" ppl are thinking. It always sometimes good to "listen" to what other ppl have to say.

Have a good and safe season. We will miss the lively commentaries.

# November 3, 2008 9:10 AM

Frnk said:

Wise words Bob. And thank you for the informative data crunching. Maybe you should have a blog entry where readers can post their own predictions and reasons. It would be a great way to gauge current market sentiment. We can also look back and see who was most accurate.

I will have that new topic up in a few minutes - Bob

@Toronto Bear:

Calgary is probably the only city in North America where you can get off the Greyhound bus and get a decent paying job the next hour. Something to think about.

# November 3, 2008 10:02 AM

Bob Truman said:

Here's the Calgary Herald's story on the October stats Calgary house sales plunge in October

# November 3, 2008 4:15 PM
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