Bob Truman, First Place Realty

We are in or will be in deep recession soon(by Dec 2008).

Next few months will not tell the true story since its already a slow period.

I beleive Condo's will suffer more due to over capacity than the SFH's.

SFH's

Dec 31      --- DOWN 4%

March 31, 2009   --- DOWN 7%

One year from now Oct 31, 2009  --- DOWN 25%

CONDO's

Dec 31      --- DOWN 5%

March 31, 2009   --- DOWN 10%

One year from now Oct 31, 2009  --- DOWN 30%

Major crash will occur in May 2009 when the expected pick up in the sales doesn't happen.

Bob, Can you believe this?

General Motors Canada has changed its car finance rate across the board from 0% rate on Oct 31st, to 11.25% on November 1st. The monthly payment for the car I wanted to buy went from $500 to $660 !!!!

Good luck GM selling any cars in Q4!

Can you imagine if lending rates for real estate shoot up that high what will happen to prices?

Wow, that is crazy.  I think low prices and financing is how GM sold the majority of their cars.  You take away their financing and I think they could be in trouble.....oh wait, they already are.

No wonder there's worry about deflation. Prices forced so low for those who really need to sell and no buyers because they cannot get credit or worse no jobs to pay for even the best priced products. It seems grim.

I wonder what the 700B$ bailout would do in the US. Keep the interest rates low by infusing cash into the financial system and have ppl get more debt to spend themselves out of a problem like they have always been? Or do it the old fashion way - reduce personal debt and spend on infrastructure. If that is the case, it would be a long road to recovery, not without pain, but in the long run good for everyone who works hard for their money. I sense it would be the latter that would prevail as a course of least resistance.

Prices for Calgary in 2009, down 10-5% but stable and boring. If oilsands activities continues to be on hold, we will see a more dramatic shift. I am still baffled why Ed Stelmach would spend his time in Europe to peddle his dirty oil there. Does Eddie know that pipeline infrastructure to the West is better than to the East of Alberta for oil? You wonder if he should spend more time in China and India who at this point care lesser about the origins of the product but rather the availability and price of it. It stumps me sometimes how we Canadians conduct business internationally. We seem so odd dealing with the world like a Fresh of the Land cowboy in a sophisticated socialite party. Reminds me of Hill Billies in LA.

I am looking for a startup (1300 SF) house in the communities of Country Hills and Coventry Hills. I have been following prices for a while now (we have four selling in our street since July).

Most houses listed today are familiar since the summer, where they listed at 370's, and now at 320's (sweet 10K-15K reduction every few weeks). They all magically have DOM less than 30 though!!

Here is my prediction:

Feb 09 - after the winter seasonal slowdown:- 300K

May 09 - rise in listing, buyers still cautious because of general economic climate:-  300K

Aug 09 - go through summer seasonal slow down:- 285K

Oct 09 - RE investor exodus from Calgary:- 270K

Dec 09 - Another winter seasonal slow down:- 250K  (where the price was in 2005)

I plan to buy then, if I still have my job. I would have spent 18K for rent this year for same level of house, and saved at least 80K in price correction.

Prices may continue to fall down, and will not top 300K for another 4 years (next oil boom).

Here are the stats for Coventry Hills/Country Hills, comparing July/August to Sep/Oct.

                         July/Aug           Sep/Oct        Change
Sales                      95                     80             -16%
SP/SF(2-storeys)    253                  250            -1.2%

SP/SF = sales price per sq ft

Thanks for the prediction. - Bob

We lag the USA by 18-24 months.

I see prices continuing to correct for the next 18-24 months. Another 40% IMHO. Lending standards have tightened since Harper and Co. pulled the plug on 0-40 mortgages.  Remember, Harpers's 0-40's are what caused this sharp run-up in prices across Canada since 2006.  Now they've realized they're hooped and pulling them off the shelves.  Call it a government recall.  

Bush and Harper both inherited vibrant economies and government surplus, only to squander through lack of leadership and oversight. The US is currently ridding itself of Bush, Canada will follow suit and elect a liberal government in 18-24 months.

I think that it will pretty much even out in the near future and not drop too much lower.  Though the economy is slipping, calgary is still booming and jobs are still waiting to be filled.  Calgary and Toronto will experience a much more minor effect than the rest of Canada.