Welcome to First Place Realty 650-2514 Sign in | Help
Side x Side Duplex is SOLD!

I posted a blog topic on Oct 24,
"How long will it take to sell?"

We had a lot of interest in this topic when it was posted on Oct 24, so I am pleased to give you an update. The SxS duplex in Killarney which was listed for $679,900 sold for $680,000. It took a total of 34 days but the offer came in well before that.

The average time it has taken to sell a home in Killarney in the past month is 106 days.

Here were the predictions:

FreeSpeech said: Well to answer your question Bob. It looks like it's not going to sell. That is why you have to devote a complete blog post to draw attention to your own listing. That's pretty sad if I must say so.

Newt said: Depending on how motivated the sellers are and how well you advertise this property, my guess is that it could sell quickly for somewhere in the $550,000 area.

J Murphy said: This property will be gone in a week. Probably close to list price.

Squiddly77 said: Folks... $700K? calgary? Give yourselves a slap if you think of buying that crap...Even the banks would be smart to say no. Not worth more than $350K. Max. If you buy that crap listed above you are insane.

Radley77 said: I think this is a good value investment and this is my reasons why:

-  Capitalization rate is healthy at ~6%, which is significantly better than the current safe investment benchmark of a long term bond yields at 4.12%.  The capitalization rate is (income - expenses)/cost, assuming income of $3915/month, taxes of $3659/year and maintenance of $2400/year.

-  The capitalization rate will grow and increase over time as rent continues to inflate on an annual basis, whereas a bond does not increase the payment (or coupon rate)

-  Appreciation over the long term should be another 3%/year

-  A buy and hold strategy over the long term (25 years) should deliver 9% returns annually due to capitalization and appreciation rate. This is comparable to what could be achieved in the stock market. Not only that, but the rough estimate of 9% total return rate does not include the effect that rent will go up over time.

As a comparison, since 1926, the average annual total return (taking into account both capital appreciation and dividends) on common stocks has been 10.3%.  The stock market is riskier and has higher volatility, and therefore it is a good sign of a healthy real estate market that capitalization rates are healthy for the long term value investor.

I'd rate this as a "BUY!"

Vladimir Levin said: It all depends on how the market evolves, but given current conditions I don't see a place like this selling for as much as 680k any time soon. It will be an interesting test to find out what happens to this property. My guess, having not seen the property, is it will sell for about 580k.

Frnk said: True current market value of the property in question is 572K. It eventually will sell close to that price.

meo said: This is very, very risky on your part, Bob to have a listing here and letting it hang for the hell of it...I wouldn't pay more than $450K for that thing...

Vinnie said: Based on current market he would be lucky to get an offer at 600k

From the bubble blog:

JimS said: no one is buying nowadays in Calgary. The blog advertisement sure didn't create any interest. I have some insider information that there is no interest at all. The "15 interested parties" were just a fictitious claim to propagate the sense of urgency when there was really no interest at all.
Many reasons why Bob T has gone skiing. He's not selling any houses. And furthermore he is afraid to own up to the facts. Even his marketing never worked (ie. making a special post to sell a property - which is still on the market

Squidly77 said(Oct 27): would not surprise me if it already has a conditional sale on it. and your right..there is no way in hell that that house has a positive cash flow you just know that this place was conditionally sold before he thought of this post. too predictable and too funny
whos gonna buy calgary real estate now?


We seldom advertise our listings on the blog. It occurred twice this year, and both times the property sold quickly. Thanks to everyone for spreading the word!

If you want realistic pricing and second-to-none marketing and exposure, call for an evaluation. 403-650-2514 or email bobtruman@shaw.ca
Posted: Friday, November 28, 2008 11:32 PM by Bob Truman

Comments

meo said:

wow... I thought you were still skiing.

Anybody can claim anything on the internet. there you go: I got my realtor licence yesterday and I closed three deals by supper./

I'd be surprised if you have a driver's licence! - Bob

If the property sold for real at $100 over list, there are some serious sick folks out there. The banks would have said no... unless the buyer did at least have 50% down cash - in which case he will lose money.

No ramen noodles for Bob next week...

The skiing is great, Meo. Sounds like you're just a little envious. I'm sorry that you are locked up in that institution. You didn't seem to take my advice last time, so here it is again:

"Your resentment of another person's success curtails your own chance of success. In order to attract success, you need to welcome it wherever you see it."  - Bob

# November 29, 2008 8:06 AM

J Murphy said:

Just think, if the seller had hired a bubble blogger, he would have got about $200,000 - $300,000 less.

Anyone with common sense could see it was priced almost exactly right for the market. Slightly below the comps is the only way you're going to sell right now.

That "inside information" comment is priceless.

Meo, do you think any of your buddies will have the guts to come back and comment now and explain where they went wrong with their wildly wrong predictions?

# November 29, 2008 9:26 AM

Ken said:

Congrats on the sale especially in such a tough market. Looks like promoting it on the blog and letting people make their predictions paid off...or was it all the publicity on the bubble blog? LOL Now let's see how your price prediction turns out once December is over. It's impressive that you have been so accurate in such a volatile year. Prices could drop a lot in December, though.

# November 30, 2008 11:57 AM

Pete said:

Well you know things are slow when a realtor has to single out one property and then brag about it after it sells.

I didn't realize things were that slow - I guess this confirms it.  

Great comment, Pete. The real estate market, as we have known for quite some time is SLOW. It takes some creativity and new ideas to be successful selling property in challenging conditions such as we are in right now. 

I gave bloggers an opportunity, the first time ever by any realtor to do so, to weigh in and show their expertise at pricing a property and determining how long it would take to sell. I thought it was a good exercise if only to show how hiring a realtor to price and market your property can achieve a much better result. This seller made at least $100,000 more than if he had taken your advice. - Bob

# November 30, 2008 9:52 PM

Frnk said:

You did a great job for your seller. Proper pricing and great marketing are key in this market. It's too bad some realtors still can not advise their sellers properly on pricing. what is your outlook for 2009?

I have many buyers and sellers asking the same question and my answer is that I don't know. Last year in November, I said that if SFH listings dropped to 3500(which it did), we'd see prices increase again in Jan, which they did. We only have 2% more listings than last year, so if you see listings reach the magic 3500 level, I expect you'll see prices level out. That's about the best I can predict for now. - Bob

# December 2, 2008 8:03 AM

Bob Truman said:

I was just contacted By Greg Rasmussen, a reporter for the CBC's national radio news, for November numbers in Calgary. He is based in Vancouver and said sales in that city were down 70% in November. It looks like Calgary is positively hot at only 39% down!

# December 2, 2008 1:54 PM

Bob Truman said:

Canada now has an equivalent of the U.S. “Case-Shiller” House Price Index. It is two months behind, but shows Calgary is down 6.98% month over month to the end of September. During the same period, the median price was down 6.06%. There are a total of six cities in the index. http://www.housepriceindex.ca/Default.aspx

# December 3, 2008 9:31 AM

Meo said:

Hey Bob...

Instead of bragging about some crappy duplex that you may/may not have sold at all, OR sold yourself, why don't you tell us how many homes you used to sell before compared to a rare sale every 2, 3 months now?

Your blog would be a bit more interesting to your readers vs. bragging about this above mentionned rare sale...

Where have you been for the past three days? Did you get your computer privileges revoked? Meo, do you think that job at Burger King is still available? - Bob

# December 3, 2008 7:58 PM

Silver said:

Thank you very much for the house price index link. I'm amazed at how much you keep up to date with using technology and especially the ancient field of real estate. You're my version of a Real Estate Obama.
# December 7, 2008 8:16 PM

John said:

With a drop in sales of 39% in only one month, what is the value of such a retrospective?  Surely in a rapidly changing market people should be keeping their eyes on where we are *now*, instead of where we were.    

# December 29, 2008 2:00 AM

Anon said:

It's still too early to tell if the property will remain cash-flow positive. The pricing was fine for current market conditions, but let's check again in a year. The rent that they can charge could still drop. I've seen asking rents drop and more flexible leasing requirements on condos over the last 6-7 months. I also saw rents drop in some areas in the early nineties in Toronto when the vacancy rates soared. Incentives or empty months count as an effective decrease in rental income. Check this link for what's happening in NYC:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/01/realestate/01cov.html?_r=2&pagewanted=3

If property values continue to drop, unemploment increases and vacany rates increase they could get squeezed unless they had a significant cash deposit or have other sources of cash flow...or if the property remains in demand as a rental.

# February 9, 2009 4:38 AM

nokia said:

Thank you very much for the house price index link. I'm amazed at how much you keep up to date with using technology and especially the ancient field of real estate. You're my version of a Real Estate Obama.

# March 3, 2009 6:51 AM
New Comments to this post are disabled