Bob Truman, First Place Realty

Thanks for providing all your information regarding the market.  I hope you have a healthy and prosperous 2009!

I was curious if you had plans to update the Old Criteria stats for December 2009?   I'm guessing that inventory is down some 35% over the past 6 months.  This is the most inventory dropped since the Spring of 2006 bull market rally.  Particularly notable is that this has happened irregardless of the Lehman failure and oil price slide.  Seems there are bigger supply/demand factors at play.

Thanks for the reminder. The Old Criteria has just been updated, and inventory is down 41%. Happy new year to you, too! - Bob

Happy new year Bob

I predict that you continue to receive lots of publicity from the other blogs who can't BEAR the thought that a realtor made a more accurate prediction than anyone else! Good job. 

BTW, awesme ski blog you've got going. It looks like a good year for snow.

Ol' Bearclaw really has his shorts in a knot! What was his prediction? Avg price of $160,000  by year-end? When you can't lead, you criticize. Do you think he'll dig up my blog entry of Feb 2007 where I predicted a price correction was coming?

The ski blog that Jerry is referring to is www.skihere.wordpress.com The skiing is awesome. I'm getting in as much as I can, since I'm expecting spring to be busy with all the free publicity I've been getting about my accurate prediction. - Bob

Your prediction turned out more accurate than anyone else's. You should get the CRAP-O-METER going again. If the number of people bashing you for an accurate prediction is any indication, it looks like you're making quite an impact.

It's been said before but BEARS repeating: The things you react to most strongly are shortcomings that you subconsciously see in yourself.  

For those who aren't familiar with the Crap-o-meter, it is Garth Turner's invention. The more his opponents bashed him, the more he knew he was getting under their skin. -Bob

Bob,

I posted 2 messages last week and see that you have chosen to censor them. Censoring your blog will not raise the bar of truth.

May you reap what you sow in 09.

Remember the time when you didn't agree with something on here, and you reported it to CREB, hoping they would shut me down? And you are criticizing me? I don't think that would qualify you as the last bastion of free speech. I have too much respect for my readers to subject them to your insults and profanity. I hope you are able to get some self-respect in 2009. Good luck and happy new year!  -Bob

I'm getting in as much as I can, since I'm expecting spring to be busy with all the free publicity I've been getting about my accurate prediction. - Bob

Bob,

   What is your prediction for spring ??

The snow will melt. But why wait for spring? The average price after five days in January is $368,230. I predict that will increase by 10% over the next 7 days. -Bob

"The snow will melt. But why wait for spring? The average price after five days in January is $368,230. I predict that will increase by 10% over the next 7 days. -Bob"

Do you have a cristal ball or you make this up?

The snow will melt. - Bob

Ha Ha Funny... you know what, along with the snow the mask on the real estate will also melt.

The average price after five days in January is $368,230. I predict that will increase by 10% over the next 7 days. -Bob

Safe Prediction ! Too bad it still wouldn't cross dec'08 close. Make some bold predictions like me... Take out your real estate agent hat and give us some predections you boast about.

6% drop by Spring and 12% - 14% drop by end of the year. You disagree ??

I'm waiting for Bearclaw to post his prediction for 2009. A high and a low average and median price. For sfh and condos.  

Let me know when it's on the public record. -Bob

"I'm waiting for Bearclaw to post his prediction for 2009. A high and a low average and median price. For sfh and condos."

Haha! Good one. Have you ever noticed? the guys who criticize are the ones most scared to face criticism themselves.  

"I'm waiting for Bearclaw to post his prediction for 2009. A high and a low average and median price. For sfh and condos."

But wouldn't it be ok for Bearclaw to make a more vague prediction now, refine it during the year, and then retroactively trumpet his precision and foresight in Jan 2010? Seems to work around here...

What's vague about saying the price will rise to $430,500 and go as low as $389,500? That was precise on both ends of the picture. I understand that it's difficult to accept that the guy you've been criticizing has made a better prediction than anyone else. It really hurts your credibility, so you go to any lengths to micro-analyse it to death. There seems to be a real fear among you and your buddies to make actual dollar figure forecasts. Scared of criticism when it turns out to be wrong? What's your prediction for 2009? -Bob

Around 2007 Dec, comments were posted suggesting investors liquidate.  I wonder where all the bulls are now? probably hibernating in fantasy land.

The first week of 2009 looks like the bottom is falling out of the Calgary housing market. A median move from around 380K beginning of Dec 2008 to 346K as of this week.

Even at current prices Calgary there is no incentive for fence sitters to begin buying. Calgary is over priced relative to Edmonton. A median of 320K would be more reasonable.

And let's not forget if oil prices don't firm up quickly, there will be lay offs in the oil patch. The US economy hasn't even began to crater. We'll see the  S&P500 hit 450 before the US economy bottoms. Alberta's natural resource based economy is a one-trick-pony, and the pony is about to get very ill.

If the avg and median prices were up right now, you'd be hearing "oh, you can't make any judgements based on 7 days of sales," and that would be a prudent attitude and a proper approach to take.

People tend to be very selective about the statistics they use to prove their point. Did you know the sales price per sq ft is actually higher now than it was on Dec 31 for both sfh and condos? Do you know what that means?

The pending sales stats show that average and median prices will be rising very soon.  -Bob

"What's vague about saying the price will rise to $430,500 and go as low as $389,500?"

That's not what your initial prediction was. You said you expected prices to stay "within a +/-5% range".

I welcome the opportunity to respond to your concerns. At the time I made the prediction, the median price was $410,000.  I didn't translate +/- 5% into actual numbers, but anyone with minimal math skills could easily do so. 5% above would be $430,500, and 5% below would be $389,500. -Bob 

Even so, this prediction isn't that impressive. If prices had risen 7.4% (ie ~15% from the actual 2008 year-end), you would have been "2.4%" off on the high end, and thus also presumably "very accurate".

It was a unique situation because for 11 years in a row, the price ended the year higher than the year before. The price had even risen in January 2008. Everyone on the public record was forecasting another price incease for the year. Fully expecting the price to eventually decrease, I thought it would be more helpful to my readers, who are making decisions about buying and selling, to know that a price decrease was also in the works.   I think that's more helpful to people than to just say the price will be XXXX at the end of the year. What do you think? -Bob

You have never addressed Bearclaw's blog entry - essentially that the "prediction" you're now trumpeting is not the same thing you said on Jan 30. Rather, you've chosen to take snide little potshots at him instead. If you disagree with his post, please explain why.

You can argue semantics about what I said, but to most reasonable people the intent was clear. Bearclaw spins it to suit his agenda. Why would he suddenly think I'm including condos? I seldom talk about condos on here.

My request for Bearclaw to post a prediction seems reasonable. If you're going to be a critic, then let's see how you perform. Do readers think this is fair?  -Bob

"I understand that it's difficult to accept that the guy you've been criticizing has made a better prediction than anyone else."

No, that's not the point. The point is that retroactive reinterpretation of your initial quote is disingenuous.

I didn't reinterpret anything. It's simple. It's clear. It's precise, but feel free to disagree. -Bob

By the way, your comparison to the other predictions is apples and oranges. All the other predictions were for a single value - I'm guessing SFH average/median/organizational benchmark for Dec 2008 (but I suppose its possible that its the average for all homes sold during the year). Your initial prediction - that prices (average? median? SP/SF?) will stay "within a +/- 5% range" is far easier target to hit.

It's a target that's probably four times as hard to hit. Give it a try. It's like winning the daily double or triactor. Much more difficult than picking a single horse. -Bob

"It really hurts your credibility, so you go to any lengths to micro-analyse it to death. There seems to be a real fear among you and your buddies to make actual dollar figure forecasts."

I don't even know what this means. How does the accuracy of your predictions affect my credibility? Who are my "buddies"? Please stay on point, and address Bearclaw's criticism.

I'm sorry for lumping you in with the crowd who hurls insults and profanity. Okay, they're not your buddies :) My incorrect assumption.

Yes, I detect a real reluctance among my critics to go on the record with actual predictions. Why do you think that is? 

Whether my prediction is impressive or not is immaterial to me. My readers can make up their own minds without being told what to think. I stand by my assertion that my prediction was the most accurate one that anyone made. I have not been shown anything that comes close. -Bob

Bob,

Posters on the Bubble blog have now dedicated most of their postings in the form of personal attacks against you and they are publicly doing  "character assassination" against your person and your profession.

That's slander and diffamation. Not to mention loss of professional reputation and loss of business potential... They also portray you in not so nice terms...which is also hate.

You may report the Bubble blog to blogger for breaking their agreement.

Here:

http://www.blogger.com/terms.g

And here:

http://www.blogger.com/content.g

The blogger complaint form:

http://help.blogger.com/?page=troubleshooter.cs&problem=&contact_type=main_tos

A friend.

I appreciate the advice. How do you think a normal, reasonable person views what they are doing? What do you think of a blog moderator who allows libellous comments to appear? 

I had enough ammunition to launch a lawsuit a long time ago, and they are just strengthening my position. For example, it was on the record six months ago that Squidly said "Bob Truman is a fascist."  

Do me a favour, Dame Edna. I am very preoccupied with other things at this time of year, but if you or anyone else has some free time, document the libellous things they are saying along with the time and date and send it to me, either on the blog or by email. If it warrants some decisive action, I think it would be instructive to do it very publicly.  -Bob

Bob,

I'm not RJT.  I've posted a few times there, here, and on a few other real estate blogs - but always as "rj". I find many of the comments on the bubble blog to be inane, rude, and stupid - but bearclaw has generally been pretty level-headed. I think his blog is worthwhile, and was a nice counterpoint to the media-amplified rabid real estate hype of the past few years from organizations like the realty associations, CMHC and REIN. If you're going to recognize his post, I think he deserves better than the sniping editorials you've thus far dished out.

I've posted my reply to your questions. The comments from RJT, whoever he is, were relevant because it illustrates how people can make statements based on no evidence, or how everyone has their own slant on things. Nowhere did I ever write that the "market was heating up."-Bob

Ok for some common sense now! Lets get back to business . I think the prices will indeed fall , to me it looks like we will see about a 25% fall in prices by the end of 2009. However I think most people can hold on and weather this drop and I see 2010 as a recovery year slow and painful for most.

As long as the big Oil and gas companies don't start laying off not many will sell. So inventory should be around were it sits now for the rest of the year.

Nice work Bob last year was crazy and I think you did a great job on keeping us up to date. With a real insight into the market.

RJ - Bearclaw created two, I repeat, two posts just to criticize Bob's reasonably accurate prediction, and he allows plenty of snide and insulting comments about Bob on his blog. Why the double standard? I think Bob has a perfect right to be somewhat indignant.

This heated debate over your prediction is interesting. I agree with Dame Edna that the only thing left for your detractors is character assassination. You can't argue with the facts, and I think you may have left some grey area in your prediction, but the fundamental intent of your prediction was clear enough to me. It's the last gasp of desperate people to attack the person rather than the data.

The area of town with the biggest price decrease was probably the northeast. Lower demand = lower prices.

Bob,

Thank you for taking the time to respond.

"I didn't translate +/- 5% into actual numbers, but anyone with minimal math skills could easily do so. 5% above would be $430,500, and 5% below would be $389,500. -Bob "

I believe that there is a substantive difference between predicting that prices will stay within a specified range, and predicting a specific high and low. In hindsight, it is easy to say you meant the latter when you said the former, but what if prices had stayed completely flat this year? Then you could have said "In January, I predicted that prices would stay 'within a +/-5% range' - and look, I was right and more accurate than anyone else!".

Indeed, your initial prediction was actually about the _range_ of prices.... and on this it was not so hot: off by ~10%+ on the high end, and nearly 50% (-7.4% vs -5%) on the low end.

"It was a unique situation because for 11 years in a row, the price ended the year higher than the year before. The price had even risen in January 2008. Everyone on the public record was forecasting another price incease for the year."

Almost - Remax was predicting no increase. In my opinion, your initial prediction that prices would stay "within a +/-5% range" is the same as Remax's, but with an added margin of error.

"Fully expecting the price to eventually decrease, I thought it would be more helpful to my readers, who are making decisions about buying and selling, to know that a price decrease was also in the works.   I think that's more helpful to people than to just say the price will be XXXX at the end of the year. What do you think? -Bob"

I guess it depends on what information you're interested in. You were essentially predicting that prices would stay the same, +/-5%, with no information on what time of year we would see the increases or decreases (eg, for example your prediction would have been equally successful if prices had dropped sharply through August, then risen towards the end of the year). The other predictions were for a specific price at a specific period in time. I suspect most people are interested in where we'll we be year from now than the fluctuations between (but I could be wrong).

"It's a target that's probably four times as hard to hit. Give it a try. It's like winning the daily double or triactor. Much more difficult than picking a single horse. -Bob"

Sorry, but no. In your (refined) prediction was, you had 12 chances to hit your high (and 12 to hit your low). The other predictions were for 1 specific price at 1 specific time. As I already pointed out, you could have claimed the same "very accurate" success had prices ended up 15% higher than they did.

"My request for Bearclaw to post a prediction seems reasonable. If you're going to be a critic, then let's see how you perform. Do readers think this is fair?"

Its beside the point. Bearclaw was largely criticizing your process, not the prediction itself. If he did make a prediction that turned out to be less accurate, what would that prove?

"Yes, I detect a real reluctance among my critics to go on the record with actual predictions. Why do you think that is? "

In my case, its because its not germane to the discussion. I'm not saying I can make a better prediction than you, I'm criticizing your interpretation of the results.

"Whether my prediction is impressive or not is immaterial to me. My readers can make up their own minds without being told what to think. I stand by my assertion that my prediction was the most accurate one that anyone made. I have not been shown anything that comes close"

Well, like I said you're comparing apples (a high and low over a period of time) and oranges (a specific value at a specific time).

Andrew,

"Bearclaw created two, I repeat, two posts just to criticize Bob's reasonably accurate prediction, and he allows plenty of snide and insulting comments about Bob on his blog. Why the double standard? I think Bob has a perfect right to be somewhat indignant."

Bearclaw's posts were less about the accuracy of the prediction and more about Bob's post facto refinement of what it was (and self promotion of the results). Allowing someone else's comments is different from writing them yourself - although I don't see anything particularly snide or insulting there right now (it appears a few were removed).

No, I don't fire off a rebuke every time I see an anti-Bob screed on the bubble blog. You know the old saying about arguing with idiots... which is not to say that everyone who posts there is one - but geez, some of those guys have serious issues.

Two Observations I've made:

1. Layoffs happening or will be happening in oil and gas sector

2. The rental market is nearly completely dried up.  I can't find anyone for 2 , 2 bedroom suites near the downtown core.

My feeling is that we're in a recession and that its going to hit house prices.

It seems the squid has reposted one of my old comments from your blog last year and attributed to you as some sort of marketing strategy. What an odd duck.

I think you could create a new definition for the truman index - the percentage of Alberta Bubble Blog posts entirely dedicated to you and your site.

Hey squid, maybe I should go and dig up some of your old posts from the Calgary Contrarian (I've been on these blogs longer than you, and I have a good memory). I think it would be quite entertaining to track your delusions over time.

Oh, by the way, why do you think Jim S posted a link to racial profiles of inmates in New Jersey after another blogger said all the "visible minorities" should go back to where they came from? What was he trying to suggest - that blacks are more probable to commit crimes? What a sick racist fool. And yet again, not one person challenged him on it. Sad.

dvrvd:

While it would be awfully interesting to graph squiddly's comments alongside housing prices over the past several years in Calgary, it would be incredibly sad if you actually spent the time to do that...

It would probably be literally days of your life that you would never get back.

You'd be better off practicing before tomorrow's game heh.

Wow even though volumes are down the prices have only slipped a bit. I am betting that most do not have to take a hit and are holding out for a good price. Like I said before it will come down to whether or not lay offs really happen in Oil and Gas.

For my gal and I we would love to see a nice correction so we could buy , but on the flip side we want a stable job to pay the mortgage .  I am betting there is a ton of people in the same boat ( buyers in waiting ).

Bob whats your insight with the sellers like? and are you getting many buyers looking ?

A good example of buyer psychology is a young couple who have been looking since July. They have found a couple places they liked, but I've told them that unless it's the perfect home which they can't live without, to wait. For them to buy, they'd have to find their dream home, and any offers would be well under list price. He has a good job in oil and gas but it would be one of the first to disappear if there were cutbacks. He says he still gets calls from headhunters frequently.

Another young couple is starting a family and are pretty serious about getting a place this year. I'm encouraging them to wait as long as possible, and again, don't buy now unless they find a home they absolutely can't live without. They're very excited at the prospect of a new house, and the the quality of inventory we've viewed has been fabulous. I hate to put a damper on things, but I will discourage any purchase as long as I can.

With advice like that from me, and I would guess most realtors would be saying something similar to their clients, there are not going to be many sales until we see some stability and confidence in the economy.

Brutal honesty with sellers is the order of the day. For anyone who must sell, I expect you'll see some really low prices compared to 2007-2008. -Bob

According to Mike Fotiou's stats for January 11th, 2009 there were no (zero) SFH sales.

Who could have predicted that one.

I took note of that and posted it on my "What's New" page early this morning. Is anyone really surprised? -Bob

bob, your honesty is a breath of fresh air in these confusing times. people need guidence these days especially from experts in whatever field they enter. with that said, do you think these times we are going throught are the "bottom of the RE state barrell falling". the drop seems to be accelarating at a high pace, unlike 2008 where the drop was gradual. sales so far this month are dismal, 70 percent drop so far this month compared to jan 2007. now that is serious. You mentioned the word "stability" in a previous post, when do you see that happening and what is your prediction for 2009.

Hey, not so fast LOL. There's been a big change in the past day - sales are now down only 64%!!!!

I'm not making any predictions for more than a week ahead. I admire anyone who is willing to stick their neck out considering all the uncertainty and turmoil around the economy, but there are too many unknowns to do anything but guess. Will an economic stimulus package by the government have any effect on people's confidence? Are we going to see big job losses? We all know that sales are dreadfully low, so I wouldn't be telling you anything you don't know already by saying that weak sales will probably mean lower prices. When it will turn around is anybody's guess. At the risk of saying something positive, "as the year progresses, conditions will continue to improve for buyers."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123152099299568447.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Bob, What's your opinion on the above link ??

I read it in its entirety, thanks for sending it. I believe it makes the case for more information, less hype.

"Mr. Lereah says he was pressured by executives to issue optimistic forecasts"

He's but one of many in a rogue's gallery of con artists, legislators, and financiers who were willing to sacrifice their integrity in order to make a buck or wield more power.

It states in the story that it's the association's(NAR) job to advance the interests of its members. True, their responsibility is to themselves as an industry and to bring in more business, but issuing forecasts which you know are incorrect does nothing to help members, but in reality, it hurts their long-term interests by diminishing their credibility. It's understandable when you consider that we are, of course, living in the "instant gratification" society without regard for consequences.

CREB makes predictions and issues statements on behalf of its members which I rarely have agreed with, and that's why I've always issued my own forecasts, predictions, and statistics. That's why I created DailyStats.ca.

There's a saying that applies: "Do the unpleasant and difficult thing now, life gets easier. Do the easy and expedient thing now, life gets more difficult."

Issuing forecasts which you know are incorrect does nothing to help members, but in reality, it hurts their long-term interests by diminishing their credibility - Bob

I agree Bob... Dailystats might be a good start.. but not enough. Lot of families get burnt thinking that they will be priced out forever on seeing the fake CREB forecasts.. I don't see a revolt like in other associations where members reputations are at stake.

There's a saying that applies: "Do the unpleasant and difficult thing now, life gets easier. Do the easy and expedient thing now, life gets more difficult." - Bob

Can we go ahead and predict a fall of 50% home value from its current value rather than beating the bush for a year or two ??  :))

Haven't posted in a long while, but thought this might of be interest to your group:

CREA is changing again for the 4th time in 2 years how they will report housing sale price data. I know Al Bundy was outraged when they did it 2 years ago, now it will be even harder to draw parallel lines between the old data and the new.

From the Financial Post today:

Two days ago, the Canadian Home Builders’ Association, a lobby group, insisted “there is absolutely no merit” in drawing a parallel between the U.S. real estate meltdown and the “cooling” market we are currently experiencing.

In mid-December, meanwhile, the Canadian Real Estate Association announced that national averages aren’t down as much as previously thought, and that it would be changing the methodology by which it calculates home prices, taking into greater account the rural homes that haven’t depreciated as quickly.

Taken at face value, these recent press releases might suggest that now was a great time to buy a house — a convenient conclusion for home builders and real estate agents.

But don’t you believe them. Maybe it's appropriate that the CREA is changing its methodology to be more inclusive, but now seems to be an awfully convenient time to be doing so.

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpmagazinedaily/archive/2009/01/09/no-real-estate-crash-here-who-are-they-kidding.aspx

Mike

The CREA change will have no impact on the stats which we keep on DailyStats.ca. We continue to use the same criteria, and for anyone who still wants the "Residential Combined" stats which were discontinued in June 2007, or as we now know them, the "Old Criteria," this is the only place where they continue to be published every month, so you can indeed compare apples to apples.

The "Old Criteria" were not a very useful tool as they lumped single family homes, condos, and outlying districts into one number. My online poll of July 3, 2008 showed that 86% of respondents preferred the new system where SFH and condos each have their own set of data, and the outlying districts are not included.

The CREA move could be looked at quite cynically. More reason to stay informed with ALL the data, given consistently and reliably. - Bob

Bob,

have been following your blog a while now...great and informative stuff - thank you.

As a potential buyer, I'm a little worry that at some point in 2009/2010 the sales will explode again? Would say that 272 sales by mid month is unrealisticly low for city like Calgary.

Regards

To make it even worse, it also includes the district and towns around Calgary. - Bob

Something will definitely explode but it won't be sales numbers.  What will explode is the number of tax sales, foreclosures, and fire-sales.  Roo, I suggest you wait to buy as the chances of a rise in sales or average price/median price are very low.  There are layoffs happening weekly and the current oil prices and projections are dismal for our economy.

I have been telling people to wait to buy for a long time and it looks like so far people who've waited have saved a significant amount of money.  Unless you need a home right NOW, take your time and pick out something that you would like to live in.

2009/10 will be a bad bad time to start your position in the real estate market (not as bad as 2007 though!).  Sometimes renting is better as prices are falling.  ie:  you rent for 30K a year (very nice home for that price) and within that year the very house you are renting falls more than 30K....you lived basically for FREE.  The landlord eats all the taxes and depreciation and maintenance.

bob, how come creb's stats and your stats are so different and far apart. the average price at year's end was way lower than their stats. they are the biggest spin doctors out there.

They are using Year-to-Date numbers. That includes everything sold in 2008, not just December's sales. - Bob

Bob,

What do you think as how low the market will go as a %. Thanks.

Got a dartboard? or, see my answer to KMAN on Jan 13.

I presented an offer a few days ago on behalf of my buyer clients.  It was a reasonable offer based on all market factors and comparables. The listing realtor said his/her sellers were insulted. I think a lot of sellers are still getting bad advice from their realtors. If sellers can refuse good offers, and continue to hold out, we will not see prices go down much, but sales will disappear, as they have this month(down 57% compared to Jan 2008). - Bob

I don't think you should blame the realtor or the seller in your case. As a seller when you read headlines with the head of CREB making public statements such as %2 lower prices and %10 higher sales this year, I see no reason to lower my price, but rest assured my house would sell quick, worst case scenario %2 below last year average price. And yes %3 or more below listing price should be considered an insult, because the CREB boss said so. As a realtor in this case, all you can do is to either try to convince your client that CREB boss knew not what she was talking about, or start looking for a job, other than RE agent.

You make a good point. If it was a "For Sale by Owner" I could understand, but a realtor should know the market. This realtor also said to me, "do you know who I am?" implying that he/she was someone really special, and that he/she knows the market better than anybody. I looked up this realtor's active listings and some of them have been on the market since Feb last year.

This listing is in a community where no homes had sold for the past 30 days(there are 20 active listings). If it was my listing, I'd have made a greater effort to keep the ball in the air. It might be the only offer they get this year. - Bob

See, Bob the CREB boss dogma is stifling the velocity of transactions.  Telling the people that prices will only be down 2% (with nothing to back that statement up) is the real insult to all of us.  Thus, I believe the never-ending unrealistic "projections" that CREB gives out are hurting sellers, buyers, and the very agents CREB is supposed to "represent".   Then you've got realtors who are still drinking the kool-aid and tell you they are INSULTED when you present a credible offer from a buyer who is ready to pay up.  These days it is getting more and more difficult to find people with good credit who have the steelies to pony up in this economy.  I agree -  that realtor should have been jumping at the deal and maybe make a counter offer with some other provisions.

Realtors like that guy are causing their selling clients to waste time and money.  Case in point, I've seen a personal friend of mine reduce his asking price from Aug 2008 $685K

Oct 2008  $629k

Dec 2008  $575k

Jan 2009  $530k

This is in the SW in a very nice sought after neighborhood.  They were fed the kool-aid by their realtor and told not to take an offer of 600K back in Oct 2008... what recourse do they have against this guy?  NOTHING.  Needless to say the agent was fired and now they are stuck with a house that still won't sell.

To be fair, there are also numerous instances where the seller won't heed the advice of the realtor, or set their asking price according to the reality of the market. There are hundreds of listings languishing on WeList.com where no realtors are representing the sellers. - Bob 

bob, regarding the offer you made and was refused,how much below the listed price was it. Also in your opinion how much should a person lowball to be within reason of the true value should be. what i mean is , in your opinion, since it is evident that alot of the listed properties are overpriced, what is the % less of their actual value??

Every situation is unique, so there's no hard and fast rule. I complete a market analysis before presenting an offer. In addition to comparable sales, a market analysis has to take into consideration the trend of falling prices as well. Whether it will be entertained is dependent on the motivation of the seller.

The seller of course is under no obligation to disclose what their motivation is, and rightly so. Mike recently answered a question on his blog about seller motivation which I think covers it all:

Mike says: "What is their motivation? Are they moving because of work? Are they moving into a new house that is almost finished being built and are worried about carrying two mortgages? Getting divorced? Having a baby and need more space? There are many factors that may influence a seller to either accept a lower offer, or not. Seller’s shoudn’t be offended by any written offers. It should at least be used as a jumping point to start negotiations. If you are a seller and you feel the offer is too low, counter it. Take a look at other parts of the offer - is there a healthy initial deposit? Any unreasonable terms or conditions? What is the condition date? Is the possession date to your liking?"

After doing a market analysis based on comparable sales, how much would be appropriate to deduct because of a falling market? 3%? 5%? 10%? - Bob

Kman,

There really is no hard and fast rule on the lowball.  There are some homes listed out there that are just ridiculously overpriced relative to comparable properties.  These homes may warrant 10%+ lowball to bring the sellers back to earth.  Unfortunately some homes are just priced incorrectly...and lately, I would argue that the majority of homes in Calgary are priced incorrectly.

The correct price is the price that homes sell at.  Currently, homes aren't selling, and only the ones that are priced right move.  Sellers need to stop thinking with 2006-07 brains and realize that many projects have been cancelled in Alberta.  Sellers need to notice that when our main industry gets sick, the rest of the economy in Calgary takes a hit.  There have been layoffs in all sectors of the service industry in Calgary that isn't making headlines.  Service is a huge source of job creation in Calgary, and now that is contracting heavily because people are spending as much (since they don't have as much).

Just had another friend who got laid off recently.  Completely unrelated (it would seem) to oil and gas industry....but he got hit too because of the generalized slowdown.  We are at the cusp of this roller-coaster's next big drop...it is unfortunate that all the sellers are going to realize this all too late when they all decide to re-list in Spring 2009.  The flood of sellers will be big, and the flood of buyers will be but a trickle of Johnny-come-lately's with their heads in the clouds.  Oh well....price your home right and maybe you can sell to one of these last few "greater fools".

bob, let's get the blog going with a new topic. I think it should be about burying the hatchet among the bloggers and start off with a new topic full of advice for buyer and sellers. On how to approach the market . Giving advice and ACCURATE information is important these days with all the confusing reports out there. I think you should title it... HOW TO APPROACH THE REAL ESTATE MARKET AND WHERE TO GET THE MOST ACCURATE INFORMATION

My winter is preoccupied with this other blog Ski Here

I generally close DailyStats blog in the winter, and re-open it again in March. I wanted to go back and re-visit the SxS duplex that sold because I knew people were anxious to see how accurate their predictions were. So I have to admit, real estate blogging isn't at the forefront of my priorities.

If you can hang on for a bit, I will get things rolling in due time. I like your suggestions, and I think my colleague Mike Fotiou is doing a great job at giving accurate information.

Another 0 sale day, and a -2 sale day.  Bob, if I recall correctly, I remember in January you said you had never seen a 0 sale day in your career.  Just wondering if you had seen a -2 day?

Yes, I do remember days where there were only 2 sales. -Bob

With the new job loss stats I think if a seller hasn't sold  by now, it'll be very difficult to sell in the next few months. Obama has already made it clear he is not very keen on buying Oil from the AB oil sands.

Why bury the hatchet.  It's far more entertaining to listen to everybody scream at each other and call each other nasty names.

Besides, here's the best advice anybody could give a buyer...don't do it unless you're a bankruptcy advisor with a trust fund to fall back on and you get 30% off the list price...wait until the spring listings drive the price down even further.

Best advice for sellers?  Just take my offer before one of the other 10 sellers to whom I made an offer accept...it's conditional on you being the first to say yes.

I have to tell you, we are in the market to buy and have made two offers on two different houses....the response" well we know it is a buyers market out there and were willing to play ball so here is our counter offer at $10,000 off list price this is as low as we will go...we are not going to give our house away...." and to boot both these places are vacant..and they wonder why sales are down....if you dont want to sell then why have your house on the market. Both houses have been on teh market for over 60 days and ours was the first offer....stupid stupid stupid....maybe we will just wait untill spring to as obviously sellers arent all that motivated.

As for Carlie... don't worry, these people (sellers) will soon realize that they have to price their houses properly or it will just sit there.  Some are wising up, and of the few "deals" I've seen the sellers are undercutting their neighbours by about 10%.  Even so, the properties still go about 2 weeks without a sale.  It is very funny to see two homes built in the same year on the same street both with similar lots...and similar finishings... same size (same model for goodness sake!)... going for about 50K difference. Even so, the lower priced one still does not sell!   What gives?  One of the realtors is out of their minds, guess which one it is.