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Where did prices decline the least? Where did homes sell better than average?

When you buy or sell a house, it's important to have all the information for the community you are interested in. The table below illustrates how the differences between areas can be quite large, from a small price decline of 5% in Wildwood to a huge decline of 30% in Bowness.

Sales in Calgary are down 34% this year, however, in Scenic Acres, sales are up 28%. There are other factors involved in the price of a house which have not been taken into account here: location, condition, finished or unfinished basement, etc. You should consult a realtor in order to get the full picture.

This is a random sampling. It's possible that other communities could have fared better or worse than these. If you want the details for a specific community, contact me.

For the 3-months ending on Mar 31, 2009, for single family homes:
(For the entire city, SFH price was down 11%. Sales volume was down 34%.)

Area

Change in Sales Price per Sq Ft Compared to 2008*

Change in Sales Volume Compared to 2008**

Wildwood

-5%

-42%

Lynwood Ogden

-6%

-38%

Canyon Meadows

-7%

-20%

Altadore (infills)

-7%

-11%

Haysboro

-7%

-29%

West Springs

-9%

+10%

Coventry Hills

-9%

-40%

McKenzie Towne

-9%

-42%

Evergreen

-9%

-43%

Cougar Ridge

-9%

-46%

Beddington, Sandstone, MacEwan

-10%

-36%

Scenic Acres

-11%

+28%

Glendale, Glenbrook

-11%

-11%

Douglasdale estates

-11%

-26%

Tuscany

-11%

-31%

Royal Oak

-13%

-41%

Edgemont

-13%

-40%

Coach Hill

-16%

-25%

Queensland

-16%

-59%

Tuxedo, Mt Pleasant

-17%

-49%

Collingwood, Charleswood

-21%

+6%

Rundle, Whitehorn, Temple,

Pineridge

-21%

-42%

Bowness

-30%

-77%

*Comparing same style of house; eg: bung to bung, or 2-storey to 2-storey. The predominant style for each community was used.

**Includes sales of all styles of homes.

Posted: Monday, April 06, 2009 9:33 AM by Bob Truman

Comments

Bob Truman said:

I've calculated the absorption rate(A/R) for some of the communities in the above post. The absorption rate tells you how many month's supply of homes is available. An A/R between 1.8 - 3.5 is considered a balanced market. Under 1.8 would be a seller's market, and above 3.5 would be a buyer's market. Again, I'd like remind you that this is simply a random list. There could be communities with higher and lower absorption rates than these.

This is how long, in months, it would take to sell the active listings in these communities if no new homes came on the market:

Canyon Meadows              1.6
Glendale, Glenbrook          1.8
Scenic Acres                    1.8
Coventry Hills                    2.0
Collingwood, Charleswood  2.1
McKenzie Towne               2.2
Tuscany                           2.4
Cougar Ridge                    3.4
Evergreen                        3.5
Royal Oak                        3.8
Haysboro                         3.9
Queensland                      4.0
Rundle, Pineridge, etc       4.4
Strathcona Park                4.7 
Renfrew, Bridgeland etc     5.9
West Springs                    6.2
Douglasdale Estates           6.3
Wildwood                         6.5
Tuxedo, Mt Pleasant          6.6
Lynnwood, Ogden             7.6
Bowness                         16.7

# April 8, 2009 9:32 AM

Bob Truman said:

I've just updated the "Absorption Rate by Price Range" table, and it shows there is a dwindling supply of homes on the market. The overall rate for single family homes in Calgary is now 3.9. For homes listed under $400,000, the rate is 2.6.

# April 8, 2009 9:41 AM

Bob Truman said:

For the first 7 days in April:

- Single family home(SFH) sales are down 3% compared to last year, and condos are down 10%.

- SFH new listings are down 49%, and condos are down 42%.

# April 8, 2009 10:18 AM

Bob Truman said:

To April 7, SFH inventory has risen 13% since Dec 31. Last year, it rose 84% in the same time frame.

# April 8, 2009 11:07 AM

Mr M said:

I am wondering if these stats are accounting for people in the following two situations:

1.  People who purchased condos which have gone belly up and now they have received their initial deposit back.  They still have a need for a house so it would make sense to buy now since prices have already dropped so far.

2.  People who were planning to buy but have held off their purchases because of rumors that interest rates will drop.  They feel that rates have dropped to their lowest point and are now buying?

Thoughts?

# April 8, 2009 2:05 PM

Vinny said:

Hi Bob,

I haven't been on the site for a bit so I thought I'd quickly answer some of the questions on your previous topic here....and these are just my thoughts, not necessarily the answer of course.

There was mention of several first time buyers.   I think many of us can agree even without 0/40 (although some brokers still say they can offer this), with the help of incredibly lower interest rates and extra govt tax incentives a few more people feel obligated to buy now.  yes, some of those tax incentives don't mean that much but some people figure they'll take advantage of that little bit extra.

housing market picking up a tad.  i think that is normal during the spring right?  It's probably too early to tell what's happening.  probably won't be an outright crash since the listings arent' piling up as fast as expected but this should end up being a slightly down year.  There are still more rounds of layoffs coming.  I know of several and unemployment is going to get worse.  With Natgas down to 3.50ish and possibly getting worse it could get intersting.  If Chrysler and GM both close up (sounds like it might only be Chrysler now) we could see natgas really drop as both of those will have a chain effect on nat gas demand.

However, having said all of that, if you find the place you want it might not be a bad idea to try to get it.  I actually know of a friend who had to sell and lost almost 15% on his (500k) house in 5 mths.  Another friend bought a place and got 10% off the asking price.

# April 8, 2009 2:21 PM

Frnk said:

Bowness dropped off the cliff. I'm guessing lack of quality product in the area and buyers are choosing to buy similar ratty homes closer to inner core than in suburb type Bowness areas.

Calgary sorely needs some innovative architectural designs and better high density urban planning. Current product for sale, including the new designs, are just plain boring. We're a couple decades  behind similar sized US cities.

# April 9, 2009 6:30 AM

Bob Truman said:

How quickly the situation can change!

In preparation for showing some properties in Bowness, I've noticed a flurry of sales in that community in the past few days. The new numbers for Bowness are:

Price change: -16%
Absorption rate: 5.3
Sales volume: -60%

Within a matter of a few days, the inventory of homes went from a 16 months supply to 5 months.

# April 11, 2009 7:48 AM
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