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Stats are updated daily now

For the spring, we are updating the Single Family Home Statistics and the Condo Statistics every day. Ours are based on the past 30 days, so it gives you a different perspective than Mike's month-to-date stats. For example, today Mike's stats would cover April 1 - 14, whereas ours will include March 16 - April 14. Neither is better, just different.

The 30-day numbers show very little change in prices since March 31. The absorption rate continues to go down, and the inventory is not growing as we would have expected in the spring.

After 14 days in April, SFH new listings down by 50% compared to last year. Condos are down 44%. The popular consensus in December was for a huge number of new listings this spring, which could still be coming, of course. I have plenty of buyers who would welcome a better selection. 

Inventory for both SFH and condos is down 32%.

After starting the year down 49% in Jan, SFH sales have picked up considerably. March sales were down 23% compared to last year. Along with most people, I was expecting the 49% drop to continue throughout the year. SFH sales for the first 14 days of April are down 14%.


Condo sales were down 50% in Jan, but are only down 13% for April.

Last year, the absorption rate was trending higher. This year it's dropping. That means we have about a 4-month supply of homes which is still considered a buyers market. For homes under $400,000, it's a balanced market with a 2.4 month supply.

Pending sales volume is higher than it was last year at this time. Condo pendings are at 213 today, last year on this date they were 167. Single Family Homes(SFH) are at 373, last year 363. That bodes well for increased sales. Prices for SFH will hold steady or go up slightly over the next week. Condo prices are heading down.

Posted: Wednesday, April 15, 2009 9:37 AM by Bob Truman

Comments

Vinny said:

Daily stats are awesome.  Greatly appreciated.  I haven't been surprised by the price trend but i have been quite suprised by the lack of new listings.  I am a bear but that is definitely a slightly bullish indicator.   Time will only tell.

# April 15, 2009 11:38 AM

Newt said:

Hi Bob,

Glad to have you back and thank you for all your diligent work in providing the public with these stats.

Over the later part of the winter and coming into the spring real estate season, I was expected things to turn out the way they did.  There are a lot of people that don't bother to "research" home buying further then reading what CREB, the Calgary Herald (and all the un-named economists they talk to that predict that we are at bottom) and young realtors that are hurting for sales have to say.  These people truly believe the propaganda (or the wisdom, based on what happens in the market) to buy.  Combine this with all the sellers on the sidelines waiting for a jump in the market... and we have what we have.

I believe that the trickle effect has yet to hit us and the worst (what ever that is) is yet to come.  Of course, I hope the opposite and would love to see my investments recover, but I think that people without homes are best to sit and watch for the time being.

Newt

# April 16, 2009 6:44 AM

Diabolo said:

Real estate price/inventory movement maybe confusing alot of people...

This video might be old, but I think it clearly reflects Alberta market

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFR7mZynY90

USA is a freakin time-machine for Canada. Go back in time to USA and see the future for Canada. We must use it :)

# April 16, 2009 12:08 PM

Moe said:

Great effort Bob, thanks.

However, I think all the stats that can be drawn from RE resale market still only offer half the picture.

The other half comes from rental market, as it can act as a leading indicator of how sales would be. After all, the two markets are tightly related, and hundreds of houses would keep moving back and fourth between the realter.ca and rentfaster.ca web sites.

Does anyone know of a good resource for tracking rental trends, number of properties, and vacancy rates?

I have a feeling that there is a big glut of rental properties. There is over 2000 listed on rentfaster. Rents are going down (more than 10% from last year) which means two things:

1- First time buyer have more reasons to continue renting, rather than buy, as it is getting cheaper.

2- More pressure on (newer) landlords to sell, as gap between what they pay to own, and what they get as rent is getting wider, making their monthly loss increase, with no immanent increase in the value of their investment, at least for a year or two.

A friend of mine is a landlord, he puts $300 a month from his pocket over the rent he gets to pay the mortgage and taxes. His house price went down from $350K to $300K. Why would any one keep losing $300 a month on top of the $50K annual loss? I don't know!!

In my opinion, the RE stats offer about 10% of the picture. There are a myriad of factors, including world economic issues, unemployment, oil and gas prices, which affect the price of real estate. My neighbour down the street, who moved here from Texas two years ago, just got laid off from his high-paying job and is moving back. Unfortunately, he had to sell his house for much less than he paid for it at the peak of the market in 2007. Luckily, his company took the loss. If we see a lot of situations such as that, it will drive the prices down.

Whether people rent or own however, housing is still required. We don't know if there will be a net gain or loss of people over the coming year. What do you think? Take my online poll -Bob

# April 16, 2009 2:37 PM

Bob Truman said:

Touching on Moe's comment further, I think the most significant statistic today is the absorption rate. It's been dropping significantly. There was supposed to be a whole swack of new listings this spring. Are they going to materialize? Are those houses/condos in the rental pool now? Will the lack of new housing starts have an effect?

# April 16, 2009 5:36 PM
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