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DailyStats.ca

Fair and balanced comment on the Calgary real estate market from Bob Truman and Dailystats.ca
Balanced market returns in April

Not since July 2007 have we experienced balanced market conditions in Calgary. A 1.8 - 3.5 month supply of homes on the market is considered a balanced market, favouring neither the buyer nor seller, and we crossed over into that territory in April. There is a 3.2 month supply of single family homes for sale.

The overall number doesn't paint a true picture of what's really happening, however. For homes priced under $400,000, we are approaching seller's market conditions with a 2.1 month supply. For homes priced above $600,000 it is still firmly in a buyer's market with a 7.6 month supply, and many of those listings continue to languish. You can see the absorption rate by price range here.

April 2009 stats summary:

The median price of single family homes(SFH) at $380,000 is up $5,000 or 1.3% from Mar.  It's down 9.5% from Apr 2008 when it was $420,000.

The SFH average price at $426,311 is up $5,958 or 1.4% compared to Mar. It's down 10.2% from Apr 2008 when it was $474,564.

SFH sales price per sq ft at $272 was down $1, or .4% compared to Mar. 

Sales of single family homes were down 5% compared to Apr 2008. Year-to-date sales are down 26%. Compared to historic levels since 2001, sales were down 25% in April.

SFH Inventory on Apr 30 was 4130, which is 40% lower than last year. 

New listings at 2011 were down 40% compared to last year. Compared to historic levels, listings are down 20%.

The absorption rate of 3.2 means that we have a 3.2 month supply of homes on the market. This is considered a balanced market, favouring neither the buyer or seller. Last year, there was a 5.1 month supply. For homes under $400,000, there is a 2.1 month supply. You can see the absorption rate by price range
here.

Days on Market(DOM) increased from 48 in Mar to 52 in Apr. Last year, it was 40.

23 homes sold for $1 million or more. Last year, there were 42.

Price reductions are down 61% compared to last year. We've averaged 65 price reductions per day over the past week. Last year was 166.

20% of the homes listed in April already have a sale or a conditional sale. Last year, it was 14%.

The median price of condos at $251,000 is down $9,000 or 3.5% from Mar. It's down 13.5% compared to last year.

Sales price per sq ft for condos at $274 went up $1 compared to Mar.

Condo sales at 579 were almost the same as last year in April when there were 581.

There is a 3.5 month supply of condos on the market. Last month had a 5 month supply.

Posted: Friday, May 01, 2009 7:27 AM by Bob Truman

Comments

Vinny said:

"For homes priced under $400,000, we are approaching seller's market conditions with a 2.1 month supply. For homes priced above $600,000 it is still firmly in a buyer's market with a 7.6 month supply, and many of those listings continue to languish."

Hey Bob, Stats and breakdowns like this seem to really provide value.  Thanks

# May 1, 2009 10:20 AM

Bob Truman said:

What will happen to house prices in May? A new question has been posted Take my online poll

# May 2, 2009 7:16 AM

Slopey Lopez said:

I like looking at the numbers you provide us non-reators and I was wondering about the absorption rate vs price recently. Your breakdown does not go back very far so I was wondering if you could help me answer the following:

Does the disparity in absorption rate over price range always favour the lower end?

What did it look like last time the market was balanced?

Presumably the stats would say the demand would centre around the median or average.

I only started the "Absorption Rate by Price Range" in Feb. It's impossible to go back and get the history. As the market evolves and changes, so do our requirements for relevant stats. Unfortunately, we have no baseline for some of the recent arrivals on the statistics scene. Fortunately, we do have a baseline for some numbers which I started years ago(Old Criteria, Unoccupied Listings are two that come to mind). Two years from now we may be able to answer your question. -Bob

# May 3, 2009 10:24 PM

Calgary Police State said:

Bob,

Who are these people buying these houses?  Registered nutjobs?  Best to wait a while while Alberta goes under.

CRO

For those who aren't aware, CRO stands for "Calgary Rip Off."  -Bob

# May 16, 2009 8:59 PM
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