Bob Truman, First Place Realty

I have to agree Bob.  My girlfriend and I were looking since November last year and finally found something in March.  We waded through close to a 100 houses in the 400-600K range and only found about four contenders.  By contenders, I mean places that were in good shape, had good fundamentals, and were priced reasonably.  Those places went relatively quick- given that the market was really hurting over Xmas.  Most of what we saw otherwise was beat up rental properties, places in need of massive reno's, crazy pricing, didn't show well, and/or had poor fundamentals (on a busy street, odd layout, odd location etc.). 

Time won't get any better for selling

SELL SELL SELL

thousands of layoffs today, means thousands of foreclosures in few months.

First time buyers...OK! They pay now for houses 380k-

400k price range.But why we call them "first time buyers"? Because they have LOW incom and have oportunity to buy house NOW in this market and low interes rate. Excusme but morgage usually for 25-30 years not for 5.What happen when bank start increase rate all this people one day get HIGH PAYED JOBS?!!!!

My PERSONAL opinion this guys will in a big trouble down the road bacause first time buyers price range 250k-290k.

And BOB what is happen when decent houses 300k-400k is gone ? You can't find (good) houses for your buyers right now because not enough. What will with the price for houses 500k 600k and up? They absorp. rate is very very deep in a buyers market and they will drop too...?

Is it just me - or do people using all CAPS just annoy the hell out of everyone because it implies yelling.

Mike - i am sure everyone in Calgary will be sacked by late next week and the City will crumble as per every contrarians dream - everything will be foreclosed and 'The Optimistic One' can finally afford a house...except everyone will have left Alberta and gone to the east coast for work.... i mean EI... have i missed anymore negative spin?

I have a 'payed' job and like most people have plans for the future in case i lose work. Maybe i am not alone in this town in thinking the Apocalypse isnt coming...

To FenceSitter - ALL CAPS:

So this is only discussion. You think   as the same REMAX report:400k- is the price for First time buyers?

Well done boy!!! well done!!!

Hi Mike - this boy did not make a price prediction or agree with a report - i think trying to predict short term market changes is rather futile - but will  continue to read yours, REMAX's and others.

Currently i tend to side with Bob and my colleagues with good job security who have bought (or are thinking of buying) in this market. There is a lot of overpriced cr*p on the market - and not enough reasonably priced quality.

I cant understand why you are negative - you can lock in a rate in most mortgages before it moves up too far - rates are not going up to 18% very quickly and you can get some excellent rental rates at the moment - so if you cant afford to buy you should be happy to rent. So why the CAPS?

FenceSitter

I am almost tempted to write my whole reply in CAPS.

What you call "Apocalypse", economists call "correction", and if you don't believe in Apocalypses/Corrections, look at real estate prices elsewhere (US,UK,Japan,across Europe,Australia,NewZeland, and even Dubai), oil prices, stock prices, even corn and rice prices!!

Here is something else you may not know. Real estate market and employment rates go hand in hand. How else do you explain a 36% a year jump in RE prices in Calgary two years ago? Now Un-employment can also cause real estate prices to Un-jump :)

Last point.

Average income for unemployed Calgarian on EI is $1500. Average income for unemployed Calgarian who exhausted the nine months of EI is 0. Average monthly mortgage payment for average house price in Calgary is $2100. Please explain what plans can be made for the future to pay $2100 monthly on a monthly income of 0.

If you hypothetically apply math to the apocalyptic proportions.

Article below says Calgary at 4.7% unemployment rate on Feb 7/09, that would put us at ~ 52K people collecting EI (taking every man, woman and child as a rough calc - worst case estimation based on 1.1Mil population).

http://calgary.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20090313/CGY_jobs_rate_090313/20090313?hub=CalgaryHome

So let's say in the next 6 months we have 10% UER, that would translate to 110K people out of work and collecting EI benefits. And you add another 110K people whose EI has run out and has zero income. So we have 220K people begging in the streets and or living out of shelters or leaving the province to go to Nanuvaut (there's some good living and scenary there if you don't mind the isolation), the real estate world in Calgary crumbles, then the apolcalytist (if there's such a word) or rather the opportunist comes in and sweep up cheap RE (the obvious).

My math and logic says - If the scenario is true for argument sake, then the question one would ask - What does one observe all around us when you go buy your groceries (gotta eat), do your day to day activities, go to work (if there's one), hop to the library and do whatever makes life go around other than sitting in front of the tube (if you have one). If you don't see beggars in the street (we have a hotel by the riverfront for the unfortunate), boarded up homes, filth and trash on the streets, crime and the fear of danger walking down the street where you live - then perhaps then, the media and I mean MEDIA had ultimately skewed your perspective.

Some see the glass half full and others otherwise. You still can make money in any situation if you know how but we certainly have more folks throwing statements around just because you heard it, regertitating hear say information and perhaps the desparate and the contempt breeds hopelessness in hopelessnes itself. Or perhaps it is the obvious or the oblivious who are colluding together but nonetheless fear or the perception of fear is the motd (message of the day). The acknowledgement I offer is we are in the shits for RE - for now. Ready for the next rebound?

At the end of the day, math says real estate investment is for the longer term, your house you live in is not an invesment but the equity is and real estate investments or any other investment vehicle is not for the short sighted, clueless or fearful. Risks is a matter perception and the fearful couldn't get along well with it. There are no quick and easy money. If there is, the stock market would be Miss Universe and the casino would be runner up. Warren Buffet would be cheerleader extraordanaire. Then again, I'm not the one who has billions in the kitty and typing long windedly in this blog. Cheers.

I apologize - using apocalypse was just for some humour in this forum. I also apologize to Bob for using his forum but am enjoying this discussion.

I now know i should have included a discussion on how the real estate market in Dubai affects the Calgary market - I am surprised you can link this to Calgary real estate prices, so will be interested to see the information you can provide on this (corn prices is a real stretch you realize - i will leave that be). Are you losing money on oil, stock and rice and this is why it is mentioned in the same breath as a condo?

From my brief inspection the unemployment rate has fluctuated between 6% in 2007 (a 30 yr low) and a highs of 12% (1983) and 11.4% (1993) (hrsdc.gc.ca). The rate was actually 3.5% in Alberta btw in 2007 - this is rising significantly now of course. These changes of course affect the housing market - but inflation, increasing average wages, immigration and many other factors also cloud the issue and i think have just as much impact.

As for EI - refer to unemployment figures above. People love to believe negative numbers - how about we reverse the figure. Current unemployment in Alberta is say 8% from StatsCan for April - that means 92% of the province is employed (according to their definitions of employment).

My friend - if you cannot get a job of any kind after 9 months being paid by the government then you deserve to get the zero (unless you have some medical reason not to provide for yourself). Welcome to the world.

Folks, we're all speculating that people are going to stay laid off for at least as long as, or longer than, nine months.  The sh!t has really only hit the fan in the last few months.  Probably not long enough to really impact real estate, quite yet, and the way things turn on a dime in this town you've got to be cautious assuming that the temporary or short term state of the local economy is going to drastically affect real estate.  

In spite of the current doom and gloom the long term view of Calgary's economic picture is pretty good.  We're in a bit of a bubble that might see us recovering some economic growth sooner than the rest of the country, or perhaps even North America.  As well, there's more than a few of us that put away a few bucks for this dip after the past three or four record affluent years.  That's my guess on why things haven't cratered as bad as one would think....

The optimistic one Wrote:

Average income for unemployed Calgarian on EI is $1500. Average income for unemployed Calgarian who exhausted the nine months of EI is 0. Average monthly mortgage payment for average house price in Calgary is $2100. Please explain what plans can be made for the future to pay $2100 monthly on a monthly income of 0.

---------

Whole cripes you got be the most Optimistic Pessimist I've ever come across. In your eyes the glass is completely empty... isn't it....and all the time.

Here's what a real Optimist would do

Being that Alberta is still very very short of service/lower paid personnel. The average salary at McD's is 1800/mt.  That takes care of that $1,500/mt EI payment a real Optimist would lose.  If you gotta get a job, you gotta get a job.  Plain and simple. Optimist's will take anything to get by and wait it out until things turn around. Unlike yourself who  would mostly likely give up and a sit at home waiting for a meteor to fall from the sky and strike you dead just so you could say "I told you so".

Hurray!!! Good for you A real Optimist

I just got word last month that my Large company was downsizing and my employment would no longer be needed and my "lay off" would come the end of this month. I thought perhaps I should start putting out resumes this week. I put out 2 of them, 3 days ago and had 2 smaller companies fighting over me. I've accepted one of them and start Monday. It's a lateral move same money, benefits etc I had at my past job.

Before everyone panics remember that we went into this with a labour shortage and have been experiencing that shortage for 5 years (in some industries) The larger companies are downsizing and the medium and smaller companies who have been understaffed are reaping the benefit of the highly trained staff finally in their scope.And are eager to get us.

The fact remains that the labour market is still out of skew. The old Baby boomers retiring not enough new talent of age yet remains. My glass runneth over. LOL

Good for those who have secure jobs or skills in demand to get another job quickly

But the reality is, not everyone is that lucky, this a the worst recession in 50 years, and many will stay unemployed for lengthy times. For this to happen in a city where many have bought expensive houses with overstretched mortgage payments. We will see for sure a big rise of move out a foreclosures.

For those with secure jobs, if few others in your street or community don't have secure jobs and are forced to move elsewhere, sell, or get foreclosed, you RE property value is still gonna see a big (double digit percentage) hit!

Just look at Kijji and see how many cars and house hold items are for sale at dirt cheep prices by people moving out of city or out of province!

Hi folks,

I want really to see when house prices in Calgary stabilaized? Now or in fall or winter?

Todd

You can't judge anything by Kijiji.  Kijiji is a subsidiary of E-Bay and came to Canada in late 2005. It has become very popular in the last year or so.  Years back poeple used the Bargin Finder or Buysell as it is now called or Craigslist.  Craigslist started getting the reputuation for "scam" ad's and people went looking for something else.  And that something else was Kijiji.  I`ve known about Kijiji even before E-Bay bought it.  Yes, there are some good deals on Kijiji, there always has been, but overall  most things offered on it aren`t cheap.  So if you think the increase in ad`s on Kijiji is only to do with the current economy, it isn't, the increases in ad`s is more to do with people just finding out about it.  Also it's free and doesn`t have the "scam" label that Craigslist has.

Remember how everyone used to talk about E-bay.  Then it became commericalized and ordinary folk quit using it.  Kijiji filled that place and is now the number one free ad website in North America.  Well until they commericalize it and #&&#*$ it all up.

So again don't go judging the ecomony by the number ad's on Kijiji.  The increase in ad's is a fuction of it's new found popularity rather that the state of the ecomomy.

Jobs are now in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, not in Alberta, and real estate there is much cheaper too.

Saskatchewan already surpassed Alberta in oil production.

For those who don't read the news, or try to ignore them, and like to believe that it all gonna be OK; I say, tip your white cowboy hat down to cover your eyes even more, and keep thinking that Calgary is gonna live in a boom ever after :)

Fencesitter:

So,sale in Calgary now (April). Depends what you want.

Houses SFH for price 500K and up 1825 units !!!!!!! All inventory 4130. It's about 44% of market. This is really overpriced. And if we will talk about acreages around Calgary and LAND waaaa...no sales at all.Absortion rates 20+ and 80+.And small towns around Calgary not much better.We will see how market itself will correct it.

I'm not sure where you are getting your data, but the actual numbers for the past 30 days are as follows for towns around Calgary:

Absorption rate is 7.5
Sales to New listings ratio is 44%(last year was 41%)
Median price is $334,000. That's down 4.6% compared to 2008.

-Bob

Mike, your sounding a bit desperate to paint a bleak picture. Now that Calgary is doing well, you have to search for areas that have nothing to do with the city?

Ok BOB,

How many properties 500k and  up on market Now?

How many sold 500k and up during  last 30 days?

Acreages absorb rate?!!!! Around Calgary

Land absorb rate? !!!! Around Calgary.

And again 7.5 absor.rate( for towns) it's far away from balance market isn't it?

Please answer on my questions.

You can see the absorption rate for properties $500K and up on my page Absorption rate by price range.

I have no interest in acreages or land. There are realtors who specialize in that, and it would be more informative for you to ask your questions on their blogs.

7.5 is considered a buyer's market. Who said it was a balanced market? It's a long way from 40 or 80. - Bob

Agreed J - i also am a fan of real statistics - how is this one - unemployment stabilized and jobs grew very very slightly in April (36,000 jobs):

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/subjects-sujets/labour-travail/lfs-epa/lfs-epa-eng.htm

I am sure someone will think this is bad news - i hope this continues so people are able to have some job security in the coming year. Is it the equivalent of a stock market 'dead-cat bounce'?

Also to clarify an earlier comment - EI in the whole of Alberta is 30,600 (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/090428/dq090428a-eng.htm). So with the jobs addition looks like people are paying their mortgages again - how about that - optimistic any'one'?

Mike - i really think you should reference your data regarding a 'balance' market - it helps show some credibility.

Aren't you happy it is a buyers market? You can wait longer and you may get a better deal in 6 months which would be good timing.

No reason to feel blue. As long as oil is consumed, Calgary and AB economy will do well in the long run.

In the short run, for me personally it's been business as usual. Recession? where? I can hardly tell. Restaurants are full and I still have to wait in the long line at my local Tims. I do know a couple of friends who were down sized, but they found jobs elsewhere.

As for house prices, it hasn't changed a whole lot. A drop from low 400 median to a low median of 375. That's hardly a 10% correction. Calgary housing prices barely sneezed. A huge chunk of the average couples income goes towards a 35 year mortgage commitment, but that's life in Calgary.

I didn't see any eveidence of the recession on the weekend when I was involved in another multiple offer situation. I've chatted with a few other realtors who have also been in multiple offers. The big difference between now and three years ago is that many of the multiple offers are still going for BELOW list price. It's impossible to track them as they don't stand out in the statistics as a "sold over list price." -Bob

Thanks for sharing that multiple offer situation.  I don't know about anyone else but it would have never occurred to me that multiple offers don't have to be above list.

bob, alittle help please. i have been looking online for a while for  a decent house. but most of the sites have the same old listings, junk basically. where would i have to look for those good houses that sell fast and worth looking at.i mean the good listings.

If you're not happy with realtor.ca, send me an email and I'll set you up with an automatic listing notifier. You'll receive the listings as soon as they're on MLS. 

Specify the criteria you're looking for: # of bedrooms, bathrooms, size, area, price range. The auto-notifier will have the listings' addresses as well.

There's a lag time between entering a listing on MLS and it showing up on realtor.ca. With the auto-notifier, you receive it immediately.

You can use the form on here Auto-search page  or send me an email directly bobtruman@shaw.ca

-Bob