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Sorry for being off topic Bob, but in the past I made the statement that defamatory bloggers (no need to mention names) should beware of their actions.  And, true to form, the bloggers in question responded in their typical, primative fashion.

Not that it matters, but here is a related Globe and Mail Article that provides confirmation of the above:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/technology/canadian-model-gets-google-tounmaskanastyblogger/article1257768/

And to be ON topic:

Keep up the good work Bob.  Good to hear about your happy clients.

Just by running this blog you put yourself ahead of 99.99% of realtors in my books.

Any bites on that Sunnyside 4 ave house?  Wondering if you knew what the ceiling height was in the basement of that one?

Kendall reports that we've had a lot of showings but no offers yet. A lot of the feedback says the house is too close to the train station(that could be a benefit to the right buyer). The basement ceiling is standard height. -Bob

I doubt myself all the time.  Can't tell you how much I wish your predictions are on the right track. lol

Just wait until larger-scale inflation hits (nevermind the current, and I believe TEMPORARY, deflation)...things that are tangible will be up even more as paper cash will be worth less and less.  Homes, food, oil, gold, etc etc all will be more expensive.  Those savers, though the most prudent of our society, will be hurt.

worldclass

"Just wait until larger-scale inflation hits (nevermind the current, and I believe TEMPORARY, deflation)...things that are tangible will be up even more as paper cash will be worth less and less.  Homes, food, oil, gold, etc etc all will be more expensive.  Those savers, though the most prudent of our society, will be hurt."

Don't worry so much!!!!I have interest  to buy high end acreage.Ok! I seen properties wich is was $1.25m,

$1.2m, $1.16m,$1.090m...That was 5 month ago. Today their price $1.050m,$1.020m,$998k,$900k.If I bought 5 month ago can you imagine how much I overpayed?No,no!!! prices will more going down my friend. And for those boobe-doo who is buying right now: My best wishes and good luck!!

Bad English Mike:

sometimes I wonder about you... There's a strong trollish accent to your posts. At least they usually make me chuckle. Good luck to you and your high end rural acreage speculation.

re: deflation

This is the hot topic now especially that it "looks" like we deflated so much this summer. When you take out the volatiles, we've actually never technically deflated yet for this recession. The media is all in a frenzy about it but wait until this winter when oil is compared to 30-40$ on year-on-year stats.

Credit has obviously deflated but noone truly knows how much. My thinking is if we are still inflating on the CPI now (taking out the volatiles) that a hefty inflation is in store when the credit deflation flattens out (or reverses as it seems to be doing in Canada)

I'm still trying to wrap my head around how the US dollar could deflate while the canadian is inflating (yet the canadian dollar is heading upward) but I'm no economist. Maybe we should all buy land in Hawaii next year.

Jimmy:

"Good luck to you and your high end rural acreage speculation"

Stop smoking and you will be OK !!!I am renting clown!!!!!

Jimmy:

Read the Economic Report issued from FI I work with.  Bankruptcy rate up 100% in Alberta and because of low interest, lots of ppl taking out home equity (loan).  My uneducated guess is when inflation arrives, interest rate will also go up, my savings will be earning double digit interests and those who are heavily in debt will not be impressed.   Needless to say, my savings will double in 8-10 years with an compound/double digit interest.

Now, inflation will happen but not even in the radar yet, (NB this is quoting from a Economist from a FI).

Ppl can post whatever they want on the internet, incl. malicious comments, news/rumor (with one's intent/venue) and I hope they behave like an adult.

Some postings/behavior on the internet sounds like it was due to the drugs took from previous night.

Annette,

Good luck to you and your double-digit interest.  I am assuming you think things are going to go similar to the 80's.  I was of that camp too about a year ago, but the days of Paul Volcker are long and gone...today Ben S. Bernanke was just re-appointed as the Fed chairman.  His whole life, as well as his thesis, is based on Quantitative Easing and monetary expansion as a way to control consumer spending and keep the "party going".

Needless to say, if you see double digit interest rates again, you should also buy guns and ammo to protect yourself.  Maybe you should also sell your house and rent a small hole in  the wall in order to give the impression that you are of the "poor class" too (just to be safe).  This time around, since consumer debt has never been higher per capita, you will see that the government will not do as we think and cause rates to rise.  Instead, they will hold rates low until they see a "recovery" or, as I call it, an asset bubble.

The world is on fiat currency, floating against a reference point....the US Dollar which is also fiat.  What happens when the nation that issues the ONE currency all of the world's currencies are based on goes bust?  They are abandoning the USD - there is no doubt.  They are monetizing their debt and trying to have an orderly decline of their currency.  So what will happen to us in Canada?  Nobody knows, but I do know this fact:  Raising interest rates at a time when the reference currency is falling and your "loonie" is flying high is a recipe for DESTROYING our export sector.  Our bank's Carney would have to hide in a cave to avoid all the Ontarian's who will no doubt come looking.

There is one saving grace that will give you your sky-high double-digit rates.... and that is if China can get their citizens to start consuming enough to make up for the USA's dead consumer.  This will fuel our exports and maybe, just maybe, the world will have another reference-point currency.

Staying in cash is risky.  Diversify (note I said DIVERSIFY, not move everything out of cash) into tangible things and own something of value that can't just be "expanded" with the click on a computer button.

To Mike with bad english:

Great, so you've seen the prices come down on those plots of land from unsustainable levels.  There will be a time when those will stop falling in price... are you going to time it perfectly or just sit there and watch them fall and fall and then rise and rise while you sit in cash and rent?

worldclass:

You are a REALTOR. 100%. Take you gigs right now before interest rate going up. Good luck boobe-doo!!!!

worldlclass:

just sit there and watch them fall and fall and then rise and rise while you sit in cash and rent?

Be sober my friend.

I don't think interest rate will go double digits either and I don't have tons of $$ sitting in the bank which I wish though.

China and US's honeymoon is over.  Obama quoted a traditional philosopher, Mencius and to me, he is saying China is not being too bright.  

For currency, if I have the resouces ($$), I will bet on RMB.

http://www.wtrg.com/daily/gasprice.html

^^^ yowzers

Who cares how long it will take to sell the listing

The sellers care a lot. - Bob

Wait for Natural gas to drop to under a $1 then those 500k house will come down in price fast.

August sales prices are higher and it appears inventory levels will remain low. BOC is mumbling about quantitative easing which means much lower mortgage interest rates ahead.

So much for any significant correction, Calgary prices barely sneezed. I'm beginning to think we'll see Ft McMurray prices by next year this time. I'd put out cash offers and load up if the rental market was healthier to help with the carry cost.

House prices going up in weak rental market and weaker employment market. Anyone care to explain that one? The only one I can come up with is immigrants are buying most of the starter junk allowing for the home-equity rich to move up.

Mike said:

"You are a REALTOR. 100%. Take you gigs right now before interest rate going up. Good luck boobe-doo!!!!"

OK Mike with bad English... I understand your language barrier prevents you from properly getting your thoughts out.  However, there is no need to make accusations that I am a Realtor.  Not only that, but I never said rates would go up.  Please read my post again as I am arguing that rates will STAY LOW.

I think that he should sell right now.  Why wait for spring, as far as I am concerned, this is a "spring market".

Ed is predicting hard times in Alberta over the next few years.  I imagine that this, along with rising unemployment and low gas prices will keep the Calgary real estate market booming... I just don't get this market.

Tell him to sell when the media reports on the August sales numbers. Headline will say "Prices up $20,000 - largest price increase in 3 years." The positive spin will get the buyers in a frenzy.

"... His whole life, as well as his thesis, is based on Quantitative Easing and monetary expansion as a way to control consumer spending and keep the "party going".

I agree with Worldclass.

'Party' must go on, and they will have to print more money or US economy will collapse.   Their economy is actually just recovering so why to kill it with higher interest rates?! That's not smart at all!

And with US government so much in debt they have to actually decrease the value of 'the money they owe to the whole world',  by bringing the US$ value down.  That way when inflation happens then US government actually owes a lot less, and much much less.  This will eventually happen.

"Where's the Beef?"

http://edmontonhousingbust.blogspot.com/2009/08/wheres-beef.html

I live in the core and I did the community bike ride that day. I also passed by the memorial drive portion of the event. I have to say, in my opinion the latter was rather pointless and kind of sad. One can argue that it was "just half the road on a Sunday" but for people who were being delayed because of it, it was still very annoying. This is not the kind of thing that should be happening on a road like Memorial. While I am in favour of less driving in Calgary, there are better ways to promote it.

Thanks for the heads up. Things are progressing.-Bob

Prices are dropping and cannot drop any further, therefore the bottom is here. Let the next bubble begin... If I repeat this logic to myself a hundred times, perhaps I'll be able to join the sheeple of greater fools.

It's up to each individual to do their research and, most importantly, apply common sense before jumping head first into this "once in a life time buying opportunity"

(Edited - read the Blog Rules) 

A reminder to all - by posting here, you agree that I may remove your comments, or portions of your comments that break the rules, and I agree that you have every right not to post here if you don’t like it. -Bob

I found this animation very interesting:

http://www.finance.alberta.ca/aboutalberta/population_reports/animation/animation.pdf

It is an Alberta population pyramid.  I thought it was interesting that peaks of the real estate market likely had a contributing factor that when large demographics hit the 20-30 year age demographic en masse they are like to drive up demand.  The first major boom being the baby boomers as they required new housing in the 70's and early 80's.

The second being the echoboom or Generation Y.  You can see this cohort tracing through the years.  But, I think what may have really increased sales in the last few years is that not only were Generation Y becoming 'of age' so to speak, but also that Calgary attracted a lot of Generation Y'ers at the same time.  So what would have been a mini-generational boom became a bigger amplified boom due to the factor that this generation was more likely to migrate to Alberta at this same time.

Generation Y'ers are now as big or bigger than the baby boomer demographic in Alberta which is quite astonishing.

I expect Alberta to continue to attract young people, but I don't think it will have the benefit of high demand due to the Generation Y effect.  Sales may go down over the next few years due to changes in demographics.

I also noticed that there is an incipient boom starting due to Generation Y that maybe 20 years out.

I think developers need to be aware that once Generation Y's demand is satiated, it may have quite a number of years before the market sees another sharp increase in sales.  Understanding the intergenerational trough in boom demographics may be an important factor in the first time home buyer segment of real estate market over the coming years.

Radley:

the Gen y thing caught my eye too and it can be explained by the vast numbers of people who moved here in the last few years when employment surged

If we have another boom then Gen y will be supported by Gen z...

I honestly don't think that explains the RE trends this year though - other cities are climbing higher that don't fit the same population profile

It does make me think that our slower climb in prices is more sustainable over future years, especially when you take into account affordability and average wages in Calgary (still the highest in the country by quite a bit)

I'm expecting a steep drop in Vancouver as the baby boomers get older...

Also what comes after generation z?

I forgot bout those old predictions.  Too bad none of those people had the foresight of seeing interest rates being dropped so low.  I also did not expect interest rates dropping like that so therefore I didn't expect a fair size increase in average price this year.

Ask the question to the poll again, but with the addition of......

"The Bank of Canada will lower interest rates by 5.0% to 0.25% and flood the banking sysrtem with cash, as well as the government will encourage CMHC to underwrite every single piece of paper that hits their desk."

You'll get a much different set of replies.

You're disconnected somewhere. The poll had to do with slander and defamation. Get with the program.

I think what you're trying to say is that you feel really stupid for making such a lame prediction and you'd like a second try. You had exactly the same information as CREB when you made your prediction. You were totally self-assured that you were right. Look at the bright side - you won't come in last.  -Bob

Heh! CC, you're funny!  Your prediction had to be an actual prediction, not an extrapolation based on an assumption that all of the conditions at the time would remain the same! That's like saying the Flames would have had a better shot at the cup if it hadn't been for injuries last season. Well, injuries are part of the game - that's the way it is! Besides, lowering interest rates was actually well within the scope of things people could have anticipated the BOC doing under the  circumstances. It's not as if it was some kind of cataclysmic weather event.

Carioca was talking about the rates.  Of course, nobody would have thought rates would drop to unprecedented HISTORICAL lows.  Carioca correctly suggests that home prices would be quite lower if it weren't for the low low rates.

What Carioca seems to fail to realize is that the government is on the Keynesian side of economics.  Also, that government will continue to keep rates low as this is the "new" way to manage an economy.

Don't argue whether its right or wrong... unless you have the power to change it.  Rather, go with the flow and realize when you need to change course because of reasons beyond your control.  You can whine and complain all you want, but they won't raise rates on us willingly.  The only thing that will cause a rise in fixed mortgage rates will be a collapsing bond market (which sets fixed rate mortgages).  If this happens you have more to worry about than home prices.

My favorite quote of the day comes from someone named Pez on another blog...

"When hostesses at Cactus Club are telling me it’s a good time to get into the RE market it’s officially not a good time to get into the RE market."

Most of these condos were pre-sold at prices lower than what they would sell for today. After re-financing at the low variable rate, why sell when you can cash flow positive on rent.

Recovery in the housing market is a sure thing now. Just wait and see..... :) We will definitely see 15K rise in average prices every month ever after.

Suncor lay offs (1000 jobs)

Forzani Group lay offs

Who-know-what-else layoffs

$2 natural gas price (down from $11)

It's all a matter of time for the big rebound !!!

http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/indi02j-eng.htm

Unemployment figures for August released today.  Up another 0.2% to 7.4%.

I think there's a relationship between the unemployment numbers and the housing market.  The higher the unemployment rate, the higher the house prices.

Pretty soon we will all be jobless and living in million dollar homes!

Here goes another big boost for the housing market recovery

U of C cuts jobs to trim budget

http://www.calgaryherald.com/life/cuts+jobs+trim+budget/1961803/story.html

To CM, you are right. I think the housing prices jumps an average 10K for every three layoff announcements :)

Both Calgary and Catholic boards of educations are cutting millions of dollars. Probably another few hundred jobs.

Will we see an average price of 700K this year?

Today gold topped $1000.  Oil rallied above 6% to be over $70 a barrel.  The USD fell to its lowest level against the Euro for 2009.  The 20 largest economies in the world made a weekend pledge to support the "global recovery" with "increased stimulus spending".  In short, the stars are coming in alignment for the downfall of paper/digital money.

Somehow the USA has convinced the world to crank up the printing presses.  Though they might not all do quantitative easing, they definitely are supporting the dollar as best they can.

Back in May 2009 I had said this would happen.  Bob, you can look back in your blog records and see this right?  I said you better buy a house if you need it, because they were giving money away at such low rates and that the amount of money the governments of the world are creating has to end up with very very high inflation.  Sure, we've seen deflation....in the interim...but that is a head-fake.  Long term, we are looking at high inflation, and hyper-inflation in the USA.  Hard assets like metals, commodities, and those nations that are abundant in them (ie: CANADA) will do well in the next decade.

Obviously China sees this reality and has agreed to invest $2 billion dollars in the Alberta oil sands.  When the Chinese come, historically they will follow up with ever more increasing investments (please look up Chinese investments abroad and see the pattern).  They already bought a large portion of Teck in Canada here this year too.

So far the average and median prices of Calgary homes are up since I've made that call.  Though I did not expect this to be the case, it would seem that 2009-2010 is still "the time" to buy as per my previous post.  I do not mean to cajole the renters out there, by all means you if you cannot afford to buy a home (to me, that means 20% down at LEAST and a stable career) DO NOT stretch to buy.  But those renters that are flush with cash better not be storing it all in the bank accounts for a piddly interest rate.  Invest it and get some returns already, because your elected officials will print your money's value into oblivion in the next decade.

Here is an article on that G20 pledge over the weekend:

http://tinyurl.com/l2llnf

Just wondering if anyone else out there sees a disconnect between the 'green shoots' that the media is currently reporting and the reality of what they see around them?

Virtually all of my friends are in the 30-32 age range.  All are well educated with degrees and diplomas.  All are smart, responsible people. Of the 10 that I would call close friends, here's what I've witnessed happen in their lives so far in 2009...

Friend 1: Engineer, works in the field, made a boatload of cash during the boom years.  Had to bail out of an overseas vacation, because he's been out of work for 5+ months and isn't quite sure when he'll find work again.

Friend 2: Engineer.  Recently (last week) had his house taken by the bank.  

Friend 3: Engineer (worked at the same company as friend #2).  Now working landscaping.  Wife is working a part time job in addition to her teaching job.

Friend 4: Brilliant computer IT programmer.  Laid off about 2 months ago.  Says he's tired of sitting around his house staring out the window :)

Friend 5: Contract IT for IBM.  Recently told by his employer they could only charge a maximum X number of hours from now on, as their contract was reduced.  Still makes good money though.

Friend 6: Laid off, taking the summer/fall off to enjoy an early retirement.  Her family is pretty wealthy though, not too worried about her.

The other 4 I would say are just fine, not really any change.  

But still, 60% of my close friends have been impacted in some way, and this is at a time when 'houses have never been more affordable' (ie: money has never been cheaper).

It just makes me wonder is all.  Recently we decided to take a 6 month rental in the Hillhurst area for $1500/month and just watch from the sidelines to see how it all plays out.  It's a home that would easily be in the $600k price range at the moment.  That's a price/rent ratio of over 33, over 2X the historical average.

Just wondering if anyone else out there has noticed the recent activity in the rental market lately?  I have rentfaster.ca notify me with the latest listings on a daily basis (desirable inner city areas only, which is how I found the rental above).

What I've noticed is that nearly every new listing now offers 'negotiable' or 6 months for a lease term.  This definitely wasn't the case just a few months ago.  Also noticing a *lot* of 'price reduced' and 'incentive' offers.

Could be a result of more people than ever jumping into the ownership market?  Let's face it, the biggest competition for owning is renting.  

Anyways, just something I was noticing.  

Referring to my question about historical interest rates by country, found a good book on the topic...

http://tinyurl.com/ncb7zg

CM:

Many layoffs...

Sounds like Ontario!

Those stats are atypical.

GO OILERS!

CM, I work in IT, and the project I am working on has also shed a significant number of contractors. Generally these people have been well-paid for the last several years, and as far as I know they are not in immediate distress. In fact most of them appeared to welcome taking the summer off to enjoy life and play some golf. From the point of view of real estate prices what matters is a) are these people home owners [yes] ? and b) if so, are they going to have to sell/foreclose on their homes as a result of the recession? The answer to the latter question is 'no' unless the recession deepens and this type of situation continues for another year or two. If we already near the end of the recession and un-employment numbers start to improve over the next 6 months or so, I'd say 2009-10 would qualify as a 'good time to buy' for those who can afford to take the opportunity. However, no one can predict with certainty what will happen. Maybe the recession really will get worse, or be one of those double-dip recessions we've heard murmurs about. In that case the health in the real estate market could be short-lived...

Your statistics are missing one important area. You need also to compare employment in September 09 to employment in September 09, sadly thousands of jobs are gone, especially the high paying ones.

And many losses are yet come now that summer break is over and descision makers are back to make more cuts.

And compare incomes in September 09 to employment in September 09, whoever was spared from the layoffs saw a big/income pay cut.

You're welcome to post those statistics here. Our database doesn't include those numbers, so I hope you can provide them. - Bob

RE: Incomes

Actually, as of August 2009 in Alberta the average hourly wage rate is up +5.9% year over year.  Also, average weekly earnings are up +4.3% year over year as of June 2009.

Thanks, I'll add this to the table. Can anyone give me the Unemployment stats? - Bob

Bob, can you give your buyers my thanks for such nice comments.  Often times I feel like hardly anyone understands the macroeconomic problems that are coming down the road.  It's refreshing to hear that some enjoy reading about it.

They'll be reading this. - Bob

This letter by Nouriel Roubini in the G and M is essential reading. Mr Roubini must always be respected given he predicted the depth of the debt problems long ago.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/desperately-seeking-an-exit-strategy/article1288905/

What I like about this is it doesn't resort to a "certain doomsday" report that so many in that camp still believe in. It lays out the way ahead for central banks and defines the scenarios that could develop. It's clear now that Roubini is moving into the inflationary, rather than deflationary camp. Those sitting in cash should take note. Tying interest rate hikes to house prices is an interesting approach that might work in the US but with our dollar strength as an issue I can only assume we will keep rates too low for too long as a result. I think we all know what that means for home prices.

Roubini could not have said the points I have been trying to make any better.  Thanks Jimmy for that article.  How can we possibly raise rates at a time when our loonie is flying so high?  Like I said before raising rates would destroy our export sector.  The easiest solution that policy makers are going for is to expand their balance sheets (print money) and monetize all the debt (which is really a "hidden tax").

It is always good to have cash on hand.  But when you rent, and just stash all your cash away in "cash" type accounts/investments (even if you have an RRSP that is a GIC you are in cash), you are essentially speculating that the governments will do the right thing and support the currency.  Hence, you better diversify your cash into something else - equities, real estate, commodities, precious metals, etc.  Something that they cannot simply create more of.  ALWAYS have some "cash" but don't sit 100% in it.  Those who have had 100k in their bank accounts and did nothing with them over the past few months are actually poorer than they were then.  If you compare it to how many OZ of gold they can buy with it.

Roubini's article was a good read.

I actually commented on this before...I guess nobody read it! Just scroll up!

Anyone can tell me is this a good time to spend the cash in the bank and move up?

I thought that September prices would ease off a bit as we head into the fall but looks like the opposite is happening (price per sqft and mean prices are quite a bit higher than August even with the 10 mil house included)

Bob is this just because high end properties are now the ones that are selling? What's the ab rate and inventory by price range like now?

I updated both those pages today. Absorption rate by price range and Inventory by price range. No dramatic changes to either. September sales of million dollar homes are up by 54% compared to last year.- Bob

I'm starting to think that low interest rates trump everything else going on in the economy when it comes to house prices. Maybe the usual fall and winter drop in prices will be the opposite in 09/2010...

I've been puzzled about Nat Gas prices recently going up so fast even though inventories are filling and then I read this:

http://www.examiner.com/x-20010-NY-Economy-and-Politics-Examiner~y2009m9d18-Russia-Iran-Qatar-to-cartelize-the-global-supply-of-natural-gas

Probably good news for Alberta in the long run but not good for global energy security...

http://ctv2.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090920.weconomy21/business/Business/businessBN/ctv-business

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Natural+slump+means+Alberta+must/2042789/story.html

Mr "have not"

Not to worry... we will soon be a have everything province again and at lot sooner than most think.

NYMEX futures

http://www.nymex.com/ng_fut_csf.aspx

Looks like Nat Gas traders think the future is bright and will be trading around 6.50-7.50$US average range next year.

Canada Nat Gas Production.

http://www.energyevidence.com/ng/canadaProduction.aspx

Starting to drop like a stone. OUCH....

US production, US Industrial demand and LNG supply

http://www.energyevidence.com/ng/projections.aspx

Production on the decline, Industrial demand picking up (even during the worst recession since the 80's), LNG imports not landing on US shores as predicted.

You may think that all that gas in storage is going to keep prices low for a long time, but due to the gigantic downturn in drilling this year and probably for the first half of next year, there won't be enough gas coming out of the ground to replenish that storage in the future.

A little about US production.  It hasn't drop much up until now because of the inventory of wells that were drilled during the last of the boom years.  These wells have finally been put online.  So now there won't be enough new wells coming online to stop the high initial production decline rates of conventional wells (27% first year) and certainly not enough to stop  the super high initial producion decline rates (65% to 85% first year declines) of shale gas wells.  

Currently almost all of the new production is coming from the Louisanna Haynesville shale gas wells, which have high initial production rates but declines at 85% in the first year.  The biggest shale gas field in the US currently is the Barnett shales (65% first year decline rate) in Texas. It has already started to decline due to the slow down in drilling.  (NOTE: To hold production in the Barnett's they would have to double the rig count today.)  

Also, LNG won't be much help next year either or that matter for years to come.  It now looks like all the new LNG production capacity that is being brought on is being gobbled up by Asia/China/India and Europe. The next spat of LNG supple is at least 7 years out.

Gassy guy :

I also think the Nat Gas is headed up (it has been increasing rapidly for a couple of weeks or so).

Be careful of reading too much into futures though, especially given that the contango has been there for a long time, even has nat gas headed into the 2 dollar zone. I also thought the way you do a while back.

That contango will flatten in a bad way if storage becomes a problem (this is still a possibility)]

Long term I honestly wouldn't expect great prices for Nat Gas (ie above 6 dollars) because at that point very large deposits become economical and drive the price down.

I also heard a very troubling story about "shutting in" shale plays that you basically can't turn them off and lose your supply when you do so (ie it does not stay underground). This seems fishy but spells doom for Natural Gas in the short term if true - does anyone who knows more than me care to comment on this?

Are we back in Bubble mode or are these prices a new reality?  At this rate the average house will exceed $500K next year. We're nearly back up to bubble prices.

Who is buying at these prices? Young buyers with money to burn or wealthy immigrants with too much money?

My most recent sale was a 50' lot to a builder in the Kensington area. It shows confidence in the long-term prospects of the market and the inner city. This builder will have two infills for sale in a couple years. -Bob

Kensington?  Inner city locations are still in demand and tough to find.  You want flat big land that can be subdivided for sure if you are an investor/builder.  I've been saying that inner-city would be a safer bet if you think home prices could collapse, since the inner-city homes would fall less, especially if it were a detached SFH.

With the passage of Plan IT Calgary, we are going to see the migration from low-density to higher density buildings.  This means LESS detached SFH's and thus SFH's will be MORE valued.  When you add in the fact that you bought inner-city, then you are insulated further from a possible downturn.

You can see a lot of development and renovation going on in neighborhoods like Kensington, Bankview, Altadore, South Calgary, Bankview, etc.  IMO if home values fall, the homes in these areas will fall far less than those in areas like McKenzie Towne, Auburn Bay, Sherwood, etc.  No offense to those who bought in these places, but that's the reality.