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DailyStats.ca

Fair and balanced comment on the Calgary real estate market from Bob Truman and Dailystats.ca
Price falls 1.7% in Dec but is up 5.5% compared to last year

Dec 2009 stats summary:

The median price of single family homes(SFH) at $401,000 is down $7,000, or 1.7% from Nov.  It's up 5.5% from Dec 2008 when it was $380,000.

The SFH average price at $451,348 is down $13,096 or 2.8 compared to Nov. It's up $33,950, or 8.1% from Dec 2008 when it was $417,398.

SFH sales price per sq ft at $302 was down $2, or .7% compared to Nov. It’s up $30, or 11%, from Dec 2008 when it was $272.

Sales of single family homes were up 78% compared to Dec 2008. 

Sales of SFH are down 8% compared to the historic average for Nov.

Year-to-date sales at 14,442 are up 7.4% compared to last year.

SFH Inventory on Dec 31 was 2053, which is 47% lower than last year. 

New listings at 806 were down 4% compared to last year.

The absorption rate of 2.6 means that we have a 2.6 month, or 78 days, supply of homes on the market. Last year, there was an 8.6 month supply. For homes under $500,000, there is a 1.7 month supply.

Days on Market(DOM) increased to 47 in Dec from 42 in Nov. Last year, it was 61.

20 homes sold for $1 million or more. Last year, there were4.

Price reductions are down 64% compared to last year. We've averaged 6 price reductions per day over the past week. Last year was 17.

26% of the homes listed in Dec already have a sale or a conditional sale. Last year, it was 9%.

10% of SFH sold for list price or higher. Last month was 12%.

21% of SFH sold during their first 7 days on the market. Last month was 24%.

The median price of condos at 265,000 is up $100 from Nov.

The median price of condos is up $11,000 or 4.4% from Dec 2008.

Condo sales at 341 are up 66% compared to Dec 2008.

Year-to-date condo sales at 6,331 are up 11.8% compared to last year.
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Posted: Friday, January 01, 2010 9:19 AM by Bob Truman

Comments

Bob Truman said:

What will happen to house prices in 2010? A new question has been posted Take my online poll

# January 1, 2010 12:05 PM

Matthew said:

Based on your experiences in previous years, how do you think the today's assessment decrease announcement will affect sales in the near term?

 

# January 4, 2010 5:27 PM

Bob Truman said:

Matthew; the captcha for my comment was "nonevent" and that's exactly what the assessments are. They will have no effect whatsoever.

When pricing your home, comparable sales are what is used.

For example, if you and your neighbour have almost-identical houses, and your neighbour sells for $400,000, are you going to sell your house for the assessed value which might be $350,000?

# January 6, 2010 9:35 AM

Bob Truman said:

Todd Hirsch, a senior economist with ATB Financial, said housing activity should be stable this year.

“I would expect that the year will be pretty flat, not a lot of excitement up or down,” he said.

“We’re still going to see good movement because mortgage rates are still favourable and I think people have a sense we want to get in on it now because rates will be going up.”

Read more in the Herald Calgary's real estate prices recover in 2009

# January 6, 2010 9:42 AM

Jimmy said:

Matthew:

On his blog Mike Fotiou has some good examples of assessed values and how they don't usually reflect the sale price.

In the past assessed value was usually lower than the sale price to my knowledge but in the last year or so they are closer together. This probably relates to the fact that the valuation is done on July 1 of the year earlier so it lags the market by about 6 months. In a rising market, houses will sell for more than the value and in a declining the market the opposite will happen.

My guess is there are a lot of buyers out there who will bid lower because they just look at the assessed value. Unfortunately for these folks they will probably be outbid by other buyers since inventory is so low, even after adjusting for seasonality. There might be some effect in a few cases, but on competitive properties I don't think it will make any difference.

# January 6, 2010 4:03 PM

Ron S said:

City assessment was making sense tell price was increasing in assessment? Reatlors/home owners were happy to tell those numbers. This year and coming years same report does not make sense.

Just news can create such havoc in RE market then wait for real action.

--------------------------------------

Fasten your seatbelts, home buyers

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/fasten-your-seatbelts-home-buyers/article1419098/

You now have roughly six to nine months to get a personal plan together for dealing with higher interest rates.

After that, the ride begins. Where it ends depends on how smartly the economy and inflation snap back, but we could be looking at a prime rate of more than double the current 2.25 per cent by the end of 2011. Let's look at four ways you can prepare.

# January 6, 2010 4:31 PM

daniel said:

The assessment MUST have some effects on the RE-Market. With this reduced value, the bank will not probably lend with a higher amount loan to the buyer which is in fact doing the price correction.

If you can make high down payment, you better keep waiting until the price is down. This year with the issue of the bond, the interest will be up and the house price will be down for sure.

# January 7, 2010 12:27 AM

Jimmy said:

I've been thinking about the assessment now and remembered something about Dec 2007's assessment. I don't have the stats in front of me but I remember a huge gain of 20% or so. It seemed way too high that year.

At the time there were 3364 SFHs listed which was quite high for December. Later that spring listings were 7099 - the highest ever for SFH. Did prices go up 20% over 2008? No - they went down about 8-9% from December 08 to December 09, largely from a massive inventory overhang.

Looking back I wonder if a lot of people saw the overpriced assessment and jumped to sell their property while the price was "high". This might have added to the record inventory we had that spring.

Of course if you take the reverse, if property assessments drop 13%, maybe sellers will be put off and delay their listings and add to shadow inventory. The result would be a lower inventory of SFH and more upward pressure on prices. With inventory barely above 2000 now, we might start to see the ridiculous bidding wars this spring that are going on everywhere else in Canada.

It will be interesting to see what dynamic happens this year but I still think assessments are a sideshow, notwithstanding daniel and Ron's comments.

I also think this is one of those issues that separate those who have bought a house from those who never have. If you've ever invested 300,000 or more in something you come to recognize that the diligence goes way beyond looking at a property assessment.

# January 7, 2010 9:53 AM

Carl said:

Low inventory plus low interest rates will translate into rising prices for the early part of the year, especially with buyers knowing that rates will be rising at some point.

Hey Bob, I hope you're enjoying the great snow out there. Did you see Squidly out on the trails? He says that he saw you.

# January 7, 2010 9:56 AM

Bob Truman said:

Carl;

Squidly's man-crush on me knows no bounds! I just hope he doesn't start training for the biathlon(they're allowed to carry guns).

He will stalk me anywhere, I guess.

# January 7, 2010 10:57 AM

Bob Truman said:

Carl's comment has reminded me to tell all my readers that I will resume regular updates in the spring. I am busy through the winter as the Calgary Ski Club's Daytrip Co-ordinator and moderating my other blog www.SkiHere.ca

If there are any cross-country skiers out there reading this, you are welcome to join us for a ski trip. This Saturday we are going to Ribbon Creek. It's been the best winter for snow that I've ever experienced. The trails are in fabulous condition.

And you never know who you might see...

# January 7, 2010 11:07 AM

Bob Truman said:

While I've got a minute, I'd like to say that it is very rare to take city assesments into acount when pricing a house. It's basically disregarded because it's meaningless. The comments on this thread have made for some good reading.

If someone is selling privately, and uses the city assessment as their guide, it will not be priced correctly. Comparable home sales in the same neighbourhood is the best pricing criteria. After that, the state of the market will be a determinant. If there's low inventory, low DOM, and upward pressure on prices, you'll be able to squeeze out a few more dollars.

Conversely, if there's high inventory(like we're going to have come July), and high DOM, chances are you'll be pricing slightly lower to get a sale.

If a lender has any doubts about value, they will send their own appraiser to evaluate the property. As I stated earlier, if your house is assessed by the city at $350,000, but the neighbour's identical house sells for $400,000, the bank will most likely evaluate your house at $400,000.

The examples on Mike Fotiou's blog are a good indication that city assesments are worthless when it comes to pricing your house.

I appreciate all the comments and your patience while I'm busy with other things through the winter. It looks like we'll have another interesting year in the real estate market and I can't wait to get back.

# January 7, 2010 11:10 AM

squid said:

haha truman

you ski on trails i helped to create

ribbon creek wedge pond i know them all to well

smith dorian to upper kananaskis have been my stomping grounds for three decades

and i am 15 years younger than you at least

i spend countless hours on the smith dorian dolly varden trout rescue yearly

i see you stumbling out there

and i laugh at your plastic and phony personality

why the silly words to post a post

and why is your site censored

i thought that you were a friend of calgary and welcome here

guess not

i ski trails that you dont know exsist

such as the ones on the back side of the upper lake that shoot clear into british columbia

your a wimpy canmorite

a newcomer a transplant that has adopted the area as your own..you never will

i spend my nights on the mountains and in the stars

I'm really sorry that I've never run into you on a ski trail. Could you simply be fantasizing? You've never had a pair of skis on in your life. How could you when you are stuck in front of your computer 24/7? What's with all the anger? All the people I know, who get out into and enjoy nature, are very healthy individuals, mentally and physically. -Bob

P.S. How many times a day do you check this blog?

And we're not Canmorites. We're Can-"Morons"

# January 7, 2010 11:37 AM

Bob Truman said:

For any readers who are unfamiliar with the Squid, he's been stalking me and making threats for years. You can see his photo and a few of his threats here I say cut his hands and feet off or better yet kill him

Many people have advised me to get a restraining order, but luckily, at least so far, it turns out he's all talk...and talk...and talk.

Squidly, put the anger aside and come skiing with us. It would really help your outlook on life to get some fresh air, exercise, and make some friends. And since you're such an experienced skier, we'll be looking forward to getting some helpful tips on ski technique from you, not to mention that we'll enjoy your great sense of humour. You can show us your "secret" trails, too. Can't wait.

# January 7, 2010 12:08 PM

Dame Edna said:

More on squidly;

He is a fan of the bubble blog, blog which has from today on, banned every past poster who do not agree with their bust agenda.

So if Bob is running a censored blog (which he is not), then the bubbleheads are nazis.

P.S. squidly has been bragging since 2007 that he unconditionally loves all alcohols...

# January 7, 2010 3:22 PM

daniel said:

when the market turns to seller market, everybody tries to use gov.'s high assessment value to sell the properties. While the market turns to buyer market, everybody tries to use comparable price to keep the high price. This is absurd and unfair.

The gov.'s assessment is relatively objective. It reflects the right value of the house, believe it or not. That is why this system exists and so many people uses it. It is understandable that people holding properties and all realtors only welcome high assessment values, because this world is full of people who only care about their own business/interests.

"all realtors only welcome high assessment values"

Daniel, I'd like you to point out where I've said that. To put it politely, you're out to lunch -Bob

 

# January 7, 2010 6:02 PM

sparky said:

The RE market is flat.

When will Squid reveal his identity as a master listing realtor?

# January 7, 2010 8:54 PM

Jerry said:

Squid said "and i am 15 years younger than you at least"

Squid, you might be younger but you're living proof that dementia can set in at an early age.

# January 8, 2010 10:11 AM

CM said:

December job numbers for AB are out:

http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/indi02j-eng.htm

10,000 new FT jobs added.  Unemployment rate fell from 7.4% to 6.7%.

Nationally it remained the same at 8.5%  

# January 8, 2010 11:17 AM

DaBull said:

daniel

I think you should use the value the property sells for it't the only one that counts.  

# January 8, 2010 11:28 AM
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