Welcome to First Place Realty 650-2514 Sign in | Help
How much will it sell for? Closest guess wins...

All you armchair housing experts...

Take a look at this new listing in Inglewood. It's priced at $399,900. How much do you think it will ultimately sell for, and how long will it take?

http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=9471867

Built in 1981, it's 850 sq ft on main, 667sq ft down. 2/4 bdrms, suite in bsmt, 7.6 metre frontage, oversized single garage, some windows and flooring have been updated. Excellent location across from a small park and playground, on a cul-de-sac so there's minimal traffic. It's two blocks from the vibrant Inglewood business district.

This home has been owned as a revenue property with income of $1050/mo from the main floor, $950/mo from the basement which is now vacant, and $200/mo from the garage.

Comps:

A 1947 bungalow on the same block sold in November for $420,000. It was 1020 sq ft, 2/3 bdrms, finished basement, 10 metre frontage, single garage. Updated bathrooms and windows.

A 1929 bungalow one block away sold in January for $438,800. It was 1048 sq ft, 2/3 bdrms, partly finished basement, 13 metre frontage, single garage, substantially renovated.

A 1946 bungalow in a less desirable location sold in April for $355,000. It was 785 sq ft, 2/3 bdrms, finished basement, 7.6 metre frontage, mostly original condition.

A 1981 2-storey in a less desirable location sold in April for $424,000. It was 1067 sq ft, 2 bdrms, finished basement, 7.6 metre frontage, double garage.

Make your adjustments and see what price you come up with. You can look at other active listings in Inglewood on www.realtor.ca

Who do you think the buyer will be? A young professional who rides a bike to work? A first-time buyer starting a family? An investor who will continue to rent it? An artsy type who is immersed in the Inglewood culture and lifestyle?

Closest guess wins a $100 gift certificate to Rouge Restaurant

A few rules: To be eligible for the prize, leave your guess on the blog, then send me an email with your phone number, your guess, and your nickname to bobtruman@shaw.ca. Anyone is welcome to make a guess on the blog, but the only official entries will be the emails I receive. In case of a tie, the earliest date will win. One entry per person. While I welcome guesses for the "days on market," the guess for closest price will win the prize. Good luck!

Official guesses:

Zoro                  $404,900

Mabus               $401,000

Justin                 $399,000

Aman                 $398,000

Linako                $397,000

Columbo             $395,000

Fencesitter          $392,000

Vinny                  $391,000

Ryan                   $390,000

Joe                     $389,900

bhd1975              $388,000

Vladimir               $386,000

Dag                     $385,000

Mr Dude              $368,888

Brendon              $354,000

Peter                  $335,000

Posted: Friday, May 07, 2010 9:17 PM by Bob Truman

Comments

Bubu said:

Is that a house or a garage?

If you can't tell the difference, it makes me wonder if you're living in a garage?

I can understand why you may be confused...the garage is huge.  -Bob

# May 7, 2010 10:35 PM

Yeebs said:

I would guess it's priced well enough to move in the next 35 days. Likely earlier than that. Possible selling price of $387,000. Let the guessing games begin!

# May 8, 2010 10:12 AM

Ben said:

Looks like a single wide

It's exactly the same width(17') as those new detached infills which sell for $700,000 plus. -Bob

# May 8, 2010 10:40 AM

Garth Turner Jr. said:

I live in Inglewood...Great place with a lots of character.

It will sell for list within 10 days.

Good Luck

# May 8, 2010 10:58 AM

Qualifier said:

Saw this comment on Garth's blog today from a guy named "Cowtown Escapee"

"Sold our Tuscany Calgary plastic box in January with a 3 month closing. Prices slid by 10k per month on my street since then.I was scared sh**less thebuyers would back out."

Do you have any way of verifying that?

No, but I can tell you that he must have been living in a very unique area of Tuscany. When I run the numbers for 2-storey detached homes, the average price per sq ft is up by 6%.

For prices to slide $30,000, it would have put the average down by 7%. It's a total discrepancy of $57,000. He should have built with wood like the other areas of Tuscany, or maybe that street is located in a swamp? -Bob

# May 8, 2010 2:07 PM

bhd1975 said:

$388,000.00 in 30 Days.

It may be a good idea to have a prize for the best guess($100 Gift Card - You did that few years ago for the best guess on the number of listings). It will draw more traffic to the website and makes it more fun to guess :-)

Good Luck !

I remember it well, and I think it would be fun to do this again. What would be the perfect restaurant to use as a prize? It would certainly have to be Rouge, one of the top 100 restaurants in the world, and located in Inglewood, about 4 blocks from this listing. It must be murder trying to get a reservation there now. (My photo on the home page of this blog was taken on Rouge's patio. It's been cropped, so you can't see the wine bottle)Smile.

I've added some info to the original posting, but for anyone who wants to participate, here are a few rules:

After leaving your guess on the blog, you'll need to send me an email with your guess, phone number, and nickname to be eligible. bobtruman@shaw.ca. The only official entries will be the ones I receive by email.

If I don't have a way to verify your identity there could be a dozen people show up to claim the prize. -Bob

Closest guess wins a $100 gift certificate to Rouge Restaurant

# May 8, 2010 2:59 PM

Bob Truman said:

I'll keep an updated list of the official guesses as the emails roll in. Yeebs and Garth Turner Jr, I'll reserve your guesses if you get an email to me within 48 hrs.

So far:

Zoro                   $404,900

Mabus               $401,000

Justin                $399,000

Aman                $398,000

Linako               $397,000

Columbo            $395,000

Fencesitter         $392,000

Vinny                 $391,000

Ryan                  $390,000

Joe                     $389,900

bhd1975            $388,000

Vladimir             $386,000

Dag                  $385,000

Mr Dude            $368,888

Brendon             $354,000

Peter                 $335,000

By the way, we'll only use your nickname on the blog.

# May 8, 2010 5:54 PM

Ryan said:

I kinda agree with Garth Jr. but my official guess will be 390,000 in 14 days to a young professional couple who are first time buyers and looking to buy something before they have to renew that incredibly low interest rate that they locked in at a month ago.

# May 8, 2010 11:00 PM

Bob Truman said:

Vinny sent this note along with his guess:

"I'm going to guess 391 in 29 days to a young couple who is attracted by the basement suite as a mortgage helper.  The owner is probably not going to lower his price very much because it is already an investment property so he probably doesn't NEED to sell.

# May 9, 2010 12:07 PM

Ben said:

"It's exactly the same width(17') as those new detached infills which sell for $700,000 plus." -Bob

I haven't seen a single wide mobile home go for $700,000 even in Fort McMoney.

Infills are not mobile homes. -Bob

# May 9, 2010 1:17 PM

Mabus said:

re: Tuscany prices - Since October I've been watching listings for 4 bedroom homes in NW Calgary with greater than 1800 sf at prices less than $450,000.  In January and February, I was seeing a lot of listings.  In March and the first half of April, there were almost no listings.  In the second half of April and the first part of May, I've started to see listings again (but not at the level seen at the beginning of the year).  With the total number of total listings constantly rising, I'm guessing that prices must have also been rising in the narrow market identified above if the search results were lower.  

That said, the following property is one of the least expensive I've seen since I started this search in October:

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=9425691

I'm sure if you are the person with the following listing, it feels like the market has dropped 30k:

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=9396810

I have no evidence to back up the following statement, but it feels like there are quite a few move-up buyers out there.  These are the people that are happy where they are over the short to medium-term, but settled a few years back for a house that won't be sufficient for their long-term needs.  They can wait, but when they see the perfect house for their long-term needs (i.e., not on main street, good community with a school, garage, right size, etc.) they pounce and are willing to pay a premium to get the place they want to live in for many many years.  In short, if you have the perfect house to suit someone's needs, it can still sell, and sell quickly for a great price.  If you house doesn't meet someone's criteria, it might not be going anywhere - possibly for quite a while, regardless of the price.

With a lot of picky buyers out there waiting for the perfect place and lots of inventory, it's going to be tough to understand the short-term price trends.  An "It" place can sell in less than a week for more than list price, but a "Not-It" place that looks comparable to most people could go unsold even if it was priced quite a bit less than the "It" place.  Interesting times to watch real-estate.

With that in mind, I'll take a shot that the place above is on someone's "It" list and it will sell in less than 10 days for $401,000.  It's an interesting time, because if it's not on anyone's "It" list, it wouldn't be crazy to see it sit on the market for more than 60 days and ultimately sell for $369,000 or less.  Since we only get one official guess, I'll wish the seller good luck and hope it sells for over list price.

Mabus

# May 9, 2010 2:52 PM

Ben said:

LOL.... $400,000+ for that? Have we lost our sanity?

# May 9, 2010 6:21 PM

Columbo said:

395,000 within 30 days.

I have read this blog for a long while now, an I haven't posted yet. The offer is just too tempting to not take a guess, plus this is a great place to get information.

# May 9, 2010 8:49 PM

Zoro said:

$404,900 sold within 4 days (from today) to a late 20s couple, basement to be used as mortgage helper.

# May 9, 2010 9:57 PM

linako said:

It will sell for $397,000 in 10 days.

# May 9, 2010 10:21 PM

Bob Truman said:

If purchased as an investment property, would the rental income cover the mortgage payment, taxes and upkeep? Who'd like to take a stab at running the numbers?

# May 9, 2010 10:35 PM

Bob Truman said:

Calgary market trends has been updated. It shows very few homes are selling over list price.

After dropping for three weeks, the median price reversed direction.

Due to database problems, I can no longer get the "Sold in 7 days or less" stats, unless I do it manually, which I've done. Over the past 4 days 26% of homes sold during their first 7 days on the market. That's down from the 30 - 40% which we had been experiencing

# May 10, 2010 8:47 AM

Bob Truman said:

Stats to Obsess Over
 

2010 compared to the historic average(9 yrs):

 

For single family homes

 

Sales
(A)

New listings

(B)

Crash Index

A-B

 

May 1 – 7

 

-15%

+16%

-31

 

Apr

 

-19%

+25%

-44

 

March

 

-14%

+20%

-34

 

Feb

 

-24%

+3%

-27

 

Jan

 

-29%

-15%

-14

Crash Index: The more negative the number, the more likely we’re heading for a crash.

# May 10, 2010 8:52 AM

Bob Truman said:

How much impact would the alleged mortgage fraud have on the average price? See the previous thread "Straw buyers.." for the answer.

# May 10, 2010 9:32 AM

Brendon said:

Hi Bob,

$354,000 - 65 days...

I need your email address and phone number to make it an official entry. Send it to bobtruman@shaw.ca -Bob

# May 10, 2010 10:24 AM

CM said:

"This home has been owned as a revenue property with income of $1050/mo from the main floor, $950/mo from the basement which is now vacant, and $200/mo from the garage. "

"If purchased as an investment property, would the rental income cover the mortgage payment, taxes and upkeep? Who'd like to take a stab at running the numbers?"

If someone can actually get $2200/month for that property I'd say they've done *really* well.  I follow inner city rents pretty closely, and $1600-$1650 (the median cost of rent) can usually get you something larger than that, of comparable quality in an area at least as desirable as the 'wood, with a single or double garage....

http://tinyurl.com/28yxpdv

$1700-$1800/month seems like a more realistic number at the high end for current rental market prices.

# May 10, 2010 11:12 AM

Bob Truman said:

The National Bank Financial Group who publishes the Teranet-National Bank Index, has some well-researched information which says prices have not gone up as much as it seems. It explains how the shift towards higher-end homes has distorted the average price. (written by Marc Pinsonneault, senior economist covering housing):

"...year-over year price growth is in fact weaker than the average price

of homes sold suggests.

For example, in the 12 months ended February 2010,

the Teranet - National Bank Index

grew 13.3% in Toronto, against 18.6% for the average

price of homes sold (seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving

average). In Calgary, the growth stood at 2.2% and 5.4%,

respectively. In Vancouver, it was 11.8% versus 16.2%.

In the present state of affairs, the Teranet - National Bank

Index perhaps provides a more accurate assessment of

the risk of the Canadian residential real estate sector

overheating. It might also prevent us from exaggerating

the growth of household wealth."
.

I was emailed their Weekly Economic Letter with the information but it's very long. Maybe someone can find a link to the entire report when it's available.

# May 10, 2010 2:41 PM

Bob Truman said:

There are a couple similar homes on the market, both bi-levels in the inner city, from the same era and on 25' lots:

$479,900  http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=9288357

$429,900  http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=9471911

# May 10, 2010 10:23 PM

joe said:

the house will sell at 389,900.00 in 18 days

# May 11, 2010 12:18 PM

grace said:

http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Reports/ea21cb39-d97b-437f-a58b-3e226e86b87b/c59e953e-d5cb-41bf-915f-970d02199f0c.pdf

complete weekly economic newsletter

This is the link to the National Bank article I was mentioning above. Thanks. -Bob

# May 12, 2010 9:51 AM

dag said:

$385000 in three weeks.

# May 12, 2010 10:32 PM

Doublespeak said:

Garth Turner seems to be getting desperate. I left a comment on his blog yesterday about "Sandra," the supposed realtor from Calgary.

Sandra's not a realtor, she's a crazy blogger who posts crap about nothing(up to 15 postings a day). No brokerage no website other than her blog which I imagine no one reads.

I pointed this all out to Garth, but he only pays lip service to the fact that his blog is a "Free speech zone."

http://sandra.ivydays.com/2010/05/

Bob thanks for having a truly 'free speech" zone.

You're saying he deleted your comment? Surprising. You'd think he could find enough of that from a "real" realtor. For anyone who wants to see Garth's post: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2010/05/11/debt/  -Bob

# May 13, 2010 8:57 AM

Vladimir Levin said:

My guess: 386k

# May 14, 2010 2:52 AM

CM said:

Is a guess of 'won't sell' allowed?  Say, if it gets pulled off the market and isn't relisted for a month? :)

Don't be so impatient! -Bob

# May 26, 2010 1:46 PM

Aman said:

Well priced! I wouldn't be surprised if it sold for 399,000. But I am going to guess - $398,000.

# May 29, 2010 9:36 PM

Aman said:

Oh forgot the time - 12 days

# May 29, 2010 9:37 PM

Peter said:

$335000

Peter; I need an email with your phone number to make it an official guess. bobtruman@shaw.ca - Bob

# June 2, 2010 10:44 PM

Vladimir Levin said:

I say if this home doesn't sell by end of August, we *each* get a $100 certificate for Rouge :) :) Yum yum!

# June 9, 2010 10:46 PM
New Comments to this post are disabled