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Blast away at the real estate industry and media...

 …but don’t be a hypocrite


The following quotes are from the moderator of "Alberta’s most popular real estate blog"(aka Edmonton Housing Bust):

“and for the most part these ‘forecasts’ and ‘industry experts’ go unquestioned”

“I suspect there was little consideration for the numbers they pulled out of their ass last month, when they yanked them out this month.”

“I guess what struck me is that this is the first real main stream article to really take the real estate industry to task for their so called “forecasts” and statistics, and in many cases just flat out calls them out.”

Now, you’d suspect anyone pointing fingers so blatantly would be the first to hold himself accountable, right? The moderator of that blog would be the first to look at his own forecasts and their outcomes? Hold yourself to a higher standard and all that?

Especially after promising “we’ll review them as the year goes on," while never missing an opportunity to review the other guys' forecasts?

The forgotten review 

Let's do it now and see what transpired:

The average price of SFH in Edmonton increased 4% in 2009, and here were the predictions:

Edmonton Single Family Home prices

Prediction for 2009

 Error

Kevin at Edmonton Housing Bust blog

-14%

18%

Canadian Real Estate Association

-9%

13%

CMHC

-5%

9%

ReMax

0%

4%

Edmonton Real Estate Board

0%

4%


It turns out CREA, CMHC, ReMax, and EREB were all more accurate than Edmonton Housing Bust. After dozens of posts slamming the real estate industry and the media, maybe in the interest of fairness we would have seen one lonely post about the outcome of those predictions?

If I make a prediction it will be diarized and flagged in everyone’s calendar and blackberry. When the magic day arrives, it will be analyzed, dissected, and slap-chopped by the blogosphere. If I'm wrong, I'm toast. If I'm right, I'm still toast. Bubble bloggers have contorted themselves into pretzels to try and prove my predictions were wrong, even when they were correct.

Talk is cheap…when you’re anonymous

Every industry has its challenges and problems and should be held accountable(especially offshore oil drilling!).  The internet has become a great tool, but it is also a “bully pulpit” for people who have an agenda. Worse, they’re anonymous and unaccountable.  It’s easy to be an authority when no one can question you, and when you don't have to put your name behind it. If they do question, it gets deleted.

One thing most bloggers don't seem to understand is that the mainstream media will only publish material for which they have a source - a real person, with a real name. If you want to be taken seriously, quit hiding and put yourself out there. If you don't have the confidence to identify yourself, and stand behind your words, then you have no credibility in the eyes of the public. (That's why I have some respect for guys like Garth Turner.)

The next question which arises is "Where are all those discerning, critical, readers?" Fanatical followers who think theirs is the one and only true way, and they reinforce the moderator’s opinions by supporting them and never questioning. Similar to people who think their religion is the only sure way to get to heaven(I have news for all of you…LOL).

It's scary to think that not one person on Alberta's most popular real estate blog had the vigilance to ask the question. Perhaps they are too busy being indignant and self-righteous.

So blast away at the real estate industry and media. I’m not defending them. But don’t be a hypocrite about it.

Admitting you were wrong keeps you humble, too. Like me.

http://edmontonhousingbust.com/2009/01/forecasts-09-part-one/

Posted: Thursday, June 17, 2010 11:07 AM by Bob Truman

Comments

Bob Truman said:

Worn-out cliches

We all know a correction is coming in the housing market, but do you roll your eyes when you come across these overused, tired phrases and worn-out cliches which can be found on most real estate blogs?

Fasten your seat belts

Hang on

This is the beginning of the end

Buckle up

This is the big one

They're manipulating the statistics again

A total collapse

It's only a matter of time now

For sale signs everywhere

Sales are plummeting(oh really? tell us something we don't know)

When is the collapse going to start

The revolution has begun

They scare people into buying

The correction is starting

The MSM(main-stream media) are biased

Keep drinking the Kool-Aid

Catch a falling knife

Well said. Thanks for that

The following have been severely misappropriated:

Real estate always goes up

You will be priced out forever.

It's different here

I did a Google search of the above, and the top 30 results were mostly bubble blogs, and not one realtor's website.

Let's end with a Churchillian quote, and one that we don't hear often enough:

Canada may be the worst place to live in this crisis, except for everywhere else.

# June 17, 2010 12:18 PM

CM said:

Oh no you didn't!  It's a point well taken, although in Kevin's defense I've never really known his blog posts to have a 'this is what's going to happen' tone.  

They usually stay away from making defined predictions, although I remember his 'Death Rattle' post being the first I had seen from him in regards to calling his shot.

I respect the vast time and effort he must put in to making his posts, and I like his analytical approach with charts, figures, and data.  It's a lot more interesting to me than Garth's method of just rewriting the same fear mongering posts over and over (although his approach definitely gets the necessary reaction).

He doesn't advance his cause by taking cheap shots at the people who were more accurate than he was. - Bob

# June 18, 2010 9:06 AM

Qualifier said:

I like the detailed analysis too, but a respectful and polite presentation of the facts carries a lot of weight in my books. Trashing each other gets us into wars.

# June 18, 2010 10:15 AM

ALE said:

I second CM's take on Kevin's analysis.  His work is presented clearly and is well researched.  The fact that this is done anonymously has zero impact on the fundamental information he puts forward.

I didn't read anything in his quotes that seemed out of line.  He's a guy who knows what it takes in terms of effort to put together an argument and he doesn't see that effort in the work of others.  Rather the media and real estate associations put forward one view of the world and will support that view with very little supporting information and rarely with good analyisis.

Not sure why you'd put all this effort into tearing a guy down who in my opinion contributes a great deal to the realestate discussion.  

In terms of predictions, I didn't hear anyone calling for real estate prices to increase in 2009 except for those whose livelyhoods depended on those price increases.  And those folks are the cliched broken clock as they are always predicting price increases. Hang your hat on that for now if you like but when price declines come, and those who follow the fundamentals know they will, it will be those others in your list that look like fools - not the people who actually spent the time to analyze the data and present it in a coherent and thoughtful way.

All the best.

# June 21, 2010 3:58 PM

Bob Truman said:

Ale, let me address your concerns one-by-one.

"I second CM's take on Kevin's analysis.  His work is presented clearly and is well researched.  The fact that this is done anonymously has zero impact on the fundamental information he puts forward."

The so-called “housing bust” blogs and “bubble” blogs are all guilty of exactly the same improprieties of which they accuse the real estate industry(REI) and media. They’ve been getting a free ride and haven’t been held to account. One thing I find distasteful is hypocrisy, and that was the rationale behind my post.

Anonymous blog moderators who are too timid to use their own names are free to impugn the REI, and their lemming-like followers join in the party, pointing accusing fingers but never being cross-examined.

I didn’t say anything about his analysis being incorrect, but if he wants to criticize, then he opens himself to criticism. Just like the real estate industry, he is also subject to being exposed.

"I didn't read anything in his quotes that seemed out of line.  He's a guy who knows what it takes in terms of effort to put together an argument and he doesn't see that effort in the work of others.  Rather the media and real estate associations put forward one view of the world and will support that view with very little supporting information and rarely with good analyisis."

Let’s look at his quotes: “industry experts go unquestioned” That’s so ironic, when no one questioned him, but more hypocritical, that he didn’t keep his promise to “review them as the year goes on.” If the real estate predictions had been way off, and Kevin’s had been accurate, we’d be seeing a monthly review.

His quotes give the air of arrogance and superiority. “the numbers they pulled out of their ass” It turns out the real estate industry numbers were more accurate than the numbers which Kevin pulled out of his “excellent” research. Furthermore, how do you know they didn’t put any research into their predictions? 

"Not sure why you'd put all this effort into tearing a guy down who in my opinion contributes a great deal to the realestate discussion."  

Took very little effort, maybe five minutes. Why do so many blogs spend so much time and effort criticizing the information I give out?

"In terms of predictions, I didn't hear anyone calling for real estate prices to increase in 2009 except for those whose livelyhoods depended on those price increases.  And those folks are the cliched broken clock as they are always predicting price increases. Hang your hat on that for now if you like but when price declines come, and those who follow the fundamentals know they will, it will be those others in your list that look like fools - not the people who actually spent the time to analyze the data and present it in a coherent and thoughtful way."

Do you think the “folks” predictions will be re-visted and criticized? Of course they will. Bubble blog moderators(most of whom are clichéd and blinkered) are habituated to having a free ride, so I can see why it upsets you to have him exposed. 

Advocates of a housing bust act as if they are the “high moral authority.” There’s a self-righteous attitude pervading the bubble blogs that they’re the only ones who know the “real truth.” When the truth is pointed out to them, they always have an excuse. Do you think the real estate industry will be afforded the same concessions if the time comes?

The only people who look like fools are the ones who are self-assured in their predictions, and who consider themselves infallible and everyone else to be inferior.

The purpose of my post was to expose his hypocrisy, and secondly, to prod his readers into asking themselves why no one called him on this. As the number one blog in Alberta, which must have gazillions of readers, you’d think someone would ask the question. Does a group-think mentality pervade the blog? Does the blog’s agenda(a housing bust) trump critical thinking?

Perhaps this failure to be reflective is part of the same characteristic which leads one to think they’re infallible. One of our regulars, Radley, has pointed out that Kevin deletes his comments. Nobody analyses a situation as thoroughly as Radley, and his comments are always respectful. Deleting comments which present a different side reinforces the group-think mentality.  That doesn’t lead to insight and awareness.

Sorry, a hypocrite’s a hypocrite’s a hypocrite. -Bob

 

# June 22, 2010 9:03 AM

CM said:

I think all your points are definitely valid Bob, nobody should be above criticism as long as it's done respectfully.  

And let's face it, there is definitely a group mentality at play on the blogosphere with realtors and the real estate industry being an easy target.  

And it's true that people should take a look in the mirror when addressing someone else's opinion as being unworthy, because at the end of the day we're all just monkeys throwing darts no matter what we like to dress it up as.

Regarding Edmonton Housing Bust specifically, I'm not sure if gazillions of readers would be quite accurate.  I hope you don't think that EHB has traffic levels anywhere near, say, Garth's Blog.  

You can see simply from the Alexa scores that Garth's is at a whole different level in terms of readership.  Your blog and EHB probably aren't *that* far apart in terms of traffic.  

In fact, I bet if your front page (BobTruman.com) was a little more 'blog like' (complete with your latest posts and such) instead of being a gateway to your blog (buried in the navigation on the left), it would probably have even more traffic.  People love to discuss, it's what keeps them coming back.

Somehow I don't think the relatively few number of comments on Kevin's blog is indicative of censorship, but likely just the fact that, well, he gets way fewer visitors.  I mean, he might have the most visited Alberta real estate blog, but really, how many significant ones are there?  3 ?  Yours, Kevin's, and Mike's are the only ones I know.

I've seen Radley's posts on EHB quite a few times, but of course would have no idea if he's had any that weren't posted.  

Somehow I get the impression that Kevin is a guy that wouldn't back down from a healthy blog debate regarding real estate so I'd be pretty surprised if he was deleting *any* posts, contrary to his opinion or not.  

If I'm wrong about that, maybe Radley can shed further light.  I've always enjoyed reading Radley's posts as well, both when he was a bear and now as a bull.  In fact, back when he had his blog, it was my favorite one.

I'm not really sure what calling Kevin out on his hypocrisy would accomplish.  I've never really seen it as an overly common theme in his posts to bash realtors/the real estate industry.  If it were, I would quickly tune out, that would get boring pretty quick.  Leave that for Garth.

# June 22, 2010 3:37 PM

Dame edna said:

Speaking of hypocritical bloggers and bubble types who remain unaccountable under anonimity, may I remind you all of squidly77... who now runs a censored blog, on his 21 June posting:

"Comments on this blog will now be held for moderation, Calgary realtors are becoming increasingly abusive".

Here:

http://albertabubbleblog.blogspot.com/

# June 22, 2010 6:45 PM

ALE said:

Bob,

Thank you for the thorough response.

When an individual posts information anonymously you still have the ability to challenge that information. The credibility of the information in EHB's case comes from the way it's pulled from widely available sources that can be checked, then compiled in an easy to read format. In this way information can be deemed credible in the absence of identity.

The majority of information provided by the organizations he has attached does not fit that bill.  CREB does not provide any information on employment, incomes, rents, delinquencies, bankruptcies, fiscal and monetary policy (other than rates low = cheap mortgage), CMHC or any of the other factors that have a significant impact on affordability of homes and thus prices.  

In my opinion EHB has earns the right to be critical of media and the real estate industry by putting in the work to do the analysis and by presenting that information for others to challenge.  And conversely putting a nametag on your shirt does NOT give you the right to challenge others unless you've done your homework first.

One readers opinion.

Anonymously,

ALE

# June 23, 2010 8:29 PM

ALE said:

Dame edna,

The blog you posted is not in the same galaxy as other legitimate housing blogs.  You're wasting your time reading it, it is a site by trolls for trolls.

ALE

# June 23, 2010 8:33 PM

GregK71 said:

You know the market must be completely out of whack when traditionally busy realtors suddenly have enough time on their hands to type out page after page of thoroughly researched data and well-reasoned arguments criticizing the track record of a lowly bubble blogger...

...or am I missing something here?

How much time do you think it takes? The only thing you're missing is a few marbles.

Did you not read this...Great summer ahead?  I've already acknowledged that I'm spending the summer hiking, biking, paddling etc. -Bob

# July 17, 2010 1:29 AM
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