Bob Truman, First Place Realty

The 30-day average price continues to plummet, almost 7% (a whopping 33,000+ dollars) below the June 30 mean. Looking back at your wonderful stats, that is the biggest drop in two straight months ever.

Maybe Garth Turner is right.

Do you really think it will continue to lose 7% every six weeks? If it does, the avg price will be $240,000 by next August. 

That's a precipitous drop. Garth Turner says it will be a long, slow melt.  Does anyone know what Turner's "long, slow melt" translates to in percentages? -Bob

I believe Garth states it will be a quick drop by December and into 2011, then there will be a slow melt for 3-4+ years thereafter.

I tried to find where I read it but not able to.

And no, it will not continue to loose 7% every 6 weeks, but it does show a trend. Those that need to get out are lowering prices to get out, but as you said previously, there are pending sales of expensive homes which will drive up the average.

But it is a trend, and the drop in prices is occurring earlier than it usually does.

Interesting article today

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/toronto/story/2010/08/15/home-sales.html

If it is true, then we have the lowest sales numbers since July 2001. This should cause some panic in those that need to sell within the next year or so.

"Experts" suggest

"Buyers are not as rushed to make an offer and are becoming more aggressive in negotiations, while sellers are beginning to accept less than asking price for homes as interest wanes.

"[Agents] are going to open houses, sitting there for three hours, and two people come in at the most," Weisleder said. "Right now there doesn't seem to be that level of stampede mentality to go see a house.

"I do believe there is a disconnect between some of the data that people are throwing out there every day in the numbers, and slowly you're going to see prices come down."

This is certainly going to make those that are waiting, wait even longer. So maybe the average will not get to $240,000 as you "jest" but perhaps to the $375 - 400 thousand range.(My guess)

I have been looking at new properties that are priced the same as used.  These sellers are fools that think their sad 10 year old property is worth as much as a brand new guaranteed home.  Some of these new homes have real "wood" siding than the traditional vinyl crap.  The only drawback is that most of these sites are a little ways off.  How do the used home sellers think they can compete?

One of the sellers up the road thinks her property is worth $412K.  Counters are scratched, cupboards a mess, dirty, etc.  Right next door to an exgrow op, also for sale(for a cool $335K-with the seller refusing inspection-;).  The realtor asked what my best offer was.  $340K  I told him.  He said he'd sell it to me for $300K, he didnt care, but the seller wouldnt.  This realtor is highly motivated to NOT sell the shack, apparently.  At least he is honest.  

As a realtor you Bob are in control of letting these sellers in Calgary know that NO ONE is buying right now.  And many that want to buy dont even qualify.  Do your clients a favour and tell them to shave $100K off their price.  You'll be outselling everyone in Calgary and making even more cash than you are now.

It's not the realtors that created this mess.  Its the idiot sellers, speculators, flippers who created the nightmare.

There are those such as myself who can watch on the sideline slowly acquiring the necessary downpayment realizing that my rent is the same as a mortgage so I can buy, and soon, once every single small criteria are fulfilled by the seller to me as the buyer.  If the seller doesnt fulfill my criteria, they can pack sand.  :)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/canadian-home-sales-sink-30/article1674181/

“We expect a downward correction of nearly 10 per cent in the monthly average prices, followed by several years of stagnation of price growth at the rate of inflation, in order to bring Canadian house prices back to balance,” TD Bank economist Grant Bishop said.

"You would think prices would come down more rapidly given the drop in sales," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets.

Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/toronto/story/2010/08/15/home-sales.html#ixzz0woi13HwE

The Canadian stats are an interesting read.

For instance someone's link has half the artical dedicated to how the HST implementaion will cause a large portion of the decline in the stats going forward to the end of the year.

So i guess my questions to the group would be.

How will the HST in OTHER provinces effect prices in calgary. will the prices be effected because of the relative price in calgary compared to say vancouver or toronoto.

Or will the saving on HST drive up the "Alberta Advantage" if there ever was such a thing causeing a unatural boost to alberta housing.

Also before i get taken out and beaten for sounding like a cheerleader i do think we are still in for a slow decline.

@ Jeff

Alberta real estate prices are about oil prices and immigration driven by oil/financial company hires.  HST...not on my radar.

Looks like the Hart Mansion is trying it's luck on the rental market now...

http://www.rentfaster.ca/Calgary-Apartments-For-Rent/Newly-Renovationed-Historic-Hart-Mansion-55684?r=L0NhbGdhcnktcmVudGFscy8jTElTVElORzU1Njg0

^^^ $12,000/month to rent

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=9491249

^^^ $4.95 million to buy

A price to rent ratio of 417.