Bob Truman, First Place Realty

I think Calgary Ripoff finally sobered up.  Hell even Squidy77 is being civil to Realtors these days.  No I really am getting scared!!! What's the blogosphere coming to... when Calgary Ripoff turns bullish and Squidly turns civil, you know the end of the World is near. LOL...

For fairness, here is the Calgary Rip Off's whole message.

   Garth, for the last two years your blog has been great and still is.

   I find it interesting that economics can have lower interest rates and a crash in housing. What may happen is that buyers are persuaded to buy more houses by these new rates. Yes they are bond rates, but bond rates arent independent of housing loans, are they?

   So likely this current bs of housing worth $200K above real values in Calgary will continue, unless the herd or freight train hasnt become unstoppable in the current media view that Calgary is 41% down in sales. This downslope in sales isnt really all that apparent in prices. Prices arent at 2005 levels, like they should be(or like I would hope they would).

   What is the specific reasoning that housing will continue to decline given the current ridiculous low interest rates? Less jobs, public sentiment, new qualifications still in place for borrowers to a mortgage, what?

   As much as I would hope you are correct and Calgary is toasted, I just dont see that, which is why I am watching the mls status daily. If I see any indication that things start to skyrocket(like the 2007 crap), I will get into a house of my choice(actually my wife and mine) asap, with correct downpayment, correct initial price(even if I qualify for $470K at the bank-no thanks, I wont go higher than $375K) and suitable monthly payments with plenty of cushion for interest rates skyrocketing and/or monthly expenses such as food(no living in a big house living on top ramen). This goes against my true wishes of Calgary going to hell for housing values, but I must be practical-or be priced out-forever-to a grand vinyl shack on a too small lot with no trees on the bald prairie(complete with cement siding flame retardant in case the neighbours lack a brain and burn their shack-it will give us more time to escape)

   I have been waiting for a horrific crash on the current rip off that still is Calgary housing and I just dont see it. Housing is still a joke in terms of what sellers think they can demand. Hopefully mass panic starts and sellers reduce $100K off of their prices immediately. But somehow I see a slow protracted doldrum that defines Alberta like a pig farmer.

   Any comments, Garth?

What was unfair? I think it still gets the point across in a clear, concise, and not-so-long-winded fashion. And here's some more from 'Rip-Off(since you hang on every word):

"There is no validity in being able to pay the monthly payments, which is why we are all better off renting forever. Screw that argument."

"So a person with a solid occupation should continue paying the same rent as they would for a comparable residence? This doesnt make sense. It is irrelevant if the interest rates go up, assuming you can make the payment. At the end of the financing, YOU OWN THE PLACE. There is no counter argument to this. And at the end of renting, you GET NOTHING. Its more important to do something than wait forever."

"I figure my timing will be perfect. Before lease renewal time next summer I will be a mortgage owner."

"Hell even Squidy77 is being civil to Realtors these days." 

Referring to a realtor, Squidly said on his blog today "who asked this prick for his advice anyways ?"

I guess coming from squidly, that could be a compliment. I spose that's better than calling him a fat slob?(that was his "compliment" of a prominent Calgary realtor last week)

When you revert to attacking someone for being fat(on a real estate blog, no less), I'd say your arguments are getting pretty "thin." Chances are he's overweight, shy, and insecure. Pity him. -Bob 

It's never smart to "hope for a crash" so you can pick up a bargain. You buy when makes sense to you. If you don't think it's a good time to buy because you think an asset may be coming down in price, then wait. If you no longer think that's true, then buy.

I'm happy to be moving into a beautiful rental property at the end of the month. I'm happy because I don't know for how much longer I'll be in Calgary and I still think housing is overpriced and we'll see a correction.

Not counting on a massive 20% correction but would be much more comfortable buying when we see growth 1% above inflation instead of these crazy price increases being thrown around. In short, the sentiment has to change from investment to a place to live. That's all a house is.

If by next year I know I'll be in Calgary for another couple of years and the market has become normal, then I'll buy.

But truth be told, I would have for sure expected prices to have come down much more given the extreme inventories that we saw last month. Bob, you probably have good insight into whether sellers are just not accepting buyers lower offers, or whether there simply aren't any buyers?

Too many overpriced homes. My own recent experience tells me there are a lot of buyers, but most of the sellers are unrealistic with their expectations. Sellers will eventually come around.  I have a lot of buyers looking right now, just waiting for the right house at the right price.  -Bob

"I have a lot of buyers looking right now, just waiting for the right house at the right price."  -Bob

Are they all low ballers?

Not at all. They are well-informed and aware of the market dynamics. Best of all, they get no pressure from their realtor, only relevant information.  -Bob

Pretty sure you're from Yellow Grass Bob, small town roots and all. Not saying that's a bad thing, I grew up in Estevan... Which last I checked had comparable house prices to Calgary - interesting!

Nice to hear from a fellow Saskatchewanian! You'll find a lot of people from the Weyburn-Estevan area in Calgary and vice-versa because of the oil.

Well, you googled "Hottest temperature in Canada" and had a 50% chance of being right, but no, it was the other town, Midale. To illustrate that oil is a big factor in the economy there, my siblings and I still own the mineral rights on the home quarter and signed a lease with an oil company recently. The whole southeast corner of the province is over top of the Bakken oil field, and I surmise that is the reason for Estevan's booming economy. -Bob

"Can anyone offer a theory on this? "

Very small sample size, very low 2009 sales, significant 2010 price reductions.

(have lived in can for the last 12 months and get housing updates from the mls through a realtor here.

ALE

Bob,

thanks for posting my comments.

I still think that Calgary real estate is vastly overpriced.  Disgustingly so.  One must look at the long term.  I have already paid close to $100K in rent.  Given that with a mortgage, much of my payments would go to interest, still, at the end, I own the house.

Most of my disgust at the housing costs stems from the fact that many many people only buy houses for an investment, nothing else.  Ethically speaking this makes it impossible for many hard working persons to buy a decent place for families.  Blah blah such is life many would say.  This just illustrates the great amount of total evil and evil people in this world.  

I do not wish ill will on house owners, although the smugness of many sellers thinking their prices are appropriate needs a big adjustment-of say $200K off...  What is needed is correct pricing on houses.

Given that Calgary is a big city now the ultimate crash is unlikely to happen, there are too many economical variables.  Therefore, I have diligently saved and am now in a position to buy a place.  Its not something I am thrilled over, and I am not in a hurry but am slowly considering places that I have looked at recently.  I wont buy a place just to own unless things go crazy again(2007).  

Again, the reality is that at the end of the payments, I own the place.  I plan on buying one time, and living in this area for the rest of my life.  Calgary is a good place to raise my child and have a family.

Fortunately my job enables me this opportunity, likely next spring, but timing depends on what I see happening on the mls.  ALthough I qualify for a $500K loan, my limit is $375K.  I will not be one of the fools(there are many) living in a big house eating uchi ban noodles and foregoing winter tires to pay the mortgage and praying for low interest rates to requalify and make the payments.

I am not "falling hard" or becoming a "bull" as you indicate.  I am very very stringent on spending any money, even a dollar.

Calgary is still full of overpriced crap shacks.  Unfortunately, this is just the reality, I am dealing with it, and even if real estate goes down in the short term, not only do I own a place at the end, the long term value is likely to go up, if only a little in 40 years from now.

I harbour no resentment towards realtors.  There is no one person who is responsible for the mess that defines Calgary real estate.  It justs shows nicely the evil and greed in the world as one side of it.

What would be appropriate is if realtors and those at the Calgary Herald(among others) indicated what a total joke Calgary is in terms of pricing(a total rip off).  This is unlikely to happen.

So the intelligent person looks at the options, makes a plan, and does something.  In life it is important to plan, act, and think.

I havent "sobered up".  I dont drink or smoke.  I am more calm these days as real estate is becoming more realistic, and finally a mortgage is nearing the cost of my rent payment after forever.  

I also am fortunate that I have a job in which my key responsibility is providing quality health care for those in Alberta.  As part of the team I take great pride in caring for people here.  People's lives are in my hands every day, indirectly at least.  I take that responsibility seriously and am fortunate to have this privilege.  I aim to continue this privilege by residing here.  Permanently.

Keep a close eye on my Crash/Confidence index. It's still forecasting lower prices for spring, so it looks like you can take your time. Thanks for the comment, but I liked you better when you were nasty and offensive. It just doesn't seem normal for you to post a comment without calling Calgarians a bunch of ignorant cows. You're being way too nice. -Bob

I still think the worse things get, the higher the average price is going to climb, this being reflected by the smaller number of homes selling combined with the price of more expensive homes being sold first.

Who needs to desperation sell first in a depressed economy? The chumps with 500k mortgages, that's who.

Is there anyway we can track the stats on homes in the 500-600k range? I think these are the true canaries in the coal mine for Calgary - ie the people who are carrying way too much mortgage debt. I'm guessing that if you look at this demographic of homes in Calgary, listing ratios in this category are going up (and more price reductions blah blah). If the ratios are the same, maybe those canaries are still alive.

It's official - i'm moving back to calgary in December. Come on you fxxxxn market! CRASH! CRASH! I want to buy a place for cheap.

Bob, you're from Midale?  I know lots of people from there. LOL.  everyone know's Midale Cafe.  family friends for over 30 years.  

I didn't live there anymore when the people took over the cafe. I believe the place you're referring to is out on the highway adjacent to the service station. I remember when Rosengrens built that service station somewhere around 1960. They also ran a Massey-Ferguson dealership from there. Also in the fifties, we had two, yes TWO restaurants right on main street and a guy who sold fish 'n chips on Saturday night from a kiosk. I usually spent my 10-cent allowance on Elephant popcorn, however.

One of the restaurants was located in the hotel and was run by a Chinese family. Very typical for small town Saskatchewan. Anyway, they had a son, Cue who was my brother's age and a daughter Emma who was my age. They'd come out to our farm to buy chickens and sometimes the kids would come out on Sunday afternoon to play with Charles and me. They moved away in the early sixties and I'm pretty sure they ended up in Calgary. Wonderful, hard-working people. Pretty sure their last name was Quan, if you're out there? -Bob

Is there a bidding war for Joe Winnipeg's phone number?

I find interesting that some guys who are not in the market yet want it to crash ie Rip off dude,Winterpeg guy.I wonder when the buy if they still will think the market is way over priced and will have no problem lowering their price by a hundred grand if they have to sell at a later date.  

With so many places sold this month at exactly 400k, it would be hard to imagine seeing the median cross this barrier before the end of the month, regardless of what the less than 200 pending sales say.  I agree that the 30 day numbers will rise, but primarily because the month to date numbers are higher than the 30 day numbers (the last few days of July sales numbers were very low, so as these come off the 30 day numbers, things will inevitably rise).

It is nice to see Rip-Off finally see that sometimes playing the waiting game is very costly.  The dance was between the land owners and the tenants.  In the 1980's, the tenants won...we had a big crash, rates were up, and finally the tenants could themselves become land owners.

Ben S. Bernanke changed all this and made the world drunk on the idea of quantitative easing for this recent "crash".  So far, so good.  It has worked and the land owners have been favoured in the latest debacle.

I agree with almost everything Calgary rip-off said in his latest post.  It is normal that, while you are waiting and frustrated (trying to get a down payment together while simultaneously seeing prices rise), that you try to the best of your ability to make people see that prices should fall.  After Rip-off buys a home, his opinion will change and he will wish prices stay the same or go up, because nobody wants to buy something for 200k and have it worth 100k in a years time.

Good luck Rip-off on your home purchase journey.  It really is fun house shopping, and the look on your wife's face when the both of you sign the contract will be priceless - because she will have a sense of "this is our place and we are settling down".  No matter how illogical, women will be women and this is the way the world works.

Bob,

you mentioned that we should look for both the Median and average to rise in the near future has that changed as prices continue to fall.

It takes a while for the pending sales to become firm, but you should see some movement in the average price by the end of this week. As I write this, the average pending list price is $509,435. Even without the $5.9 million listing, it's still way up there at $486,690.

Median price doesn't look like it will fluctuate very much. Median pending list price is at $413,350. -Bob

Bob,

Is it too early to see this asa trend or just a mild correction from the downward pressure?Thanks for the info as I have always been interested in real estate.

I don't know. We all kind of expected the lower prices through the summer, but what happens now is anyone's guess. The real estate market has a penchant for making fools out of anyone who tries to guess the future prices. -Bob