Bob Truman, First Place Realty

It always confuses my why people focus on a single descriptor of sales.  At the very least, it seems the people should be simultaneously looking at: number of sales, average sale price, median sale price, TOTAL dollar sales volume, and median/avg. $ per square ft.  

On a related note and using your statistics, at/around the peak of the Calgary market the total dollar volume of 30-day sales was over a billion dollars (e.g., March 2007: 1,090,364,608).  It now sits about 35% of that ($386,674,236).  That sounds a lot scarier than a 1% price reduction in average price per square foot.  

Garth Turner sells books about real estate. He has an interest.

However, he is merely a human being who studies past trends and patterns to assess what's ahead. Is he always right? No.

The guy has no crystal ball. He even has been way off at times.

Cycles do exist. Prices do go up then stall. Homes can sell like hot cakes. Then sometimes not at all. Where are we heading? No one knows. Make sure you view your house as shelter. For now...

Don't forget about condos. I see from Mike's stats that the price/sq ft has actually gone up. Are people buying smaller places all around?

In August, the size of homes purchased was down for both condos and single family homes. -Bob

I forgot.....

Speaking of Garth Turner always brings up squidly, one of his biggest groupies.

For a few years now squidly criticizes realtors, especially you Bob.

Did you know that squidly only allows pro-squidly posts on his blog and deletes all other pro-realtor messages or posts critical to himself?

Desperately seeking approval and reassurance from others is a sign of low self-esteem and low self-confidence. There are complicated reasons why people end up this way, but the unfortunate thing is that the sufferer is the last person to face the reality, consequently he carries on with the dysfunctional behavior. Creating a false identity on the internet allows him to overcome his poor self-image, so don't expect him to allow anything but comments that reinforce his beliefs. He repeatedly says he's shutting down his blog, but he never will because it's where he gets his fix. He is a good case-study for anyone who wants to observe psychological issues including poor impulse control, addictions, obsessive-compulsive disorder, and blaming others for his problems(in addition to all the others which I stated above).

Have you ever noticed how he ignores questions and criticisms? Unable to delete the comment, he pretends it doesn't exist. As someone who always has something to say, the silence in itself is a telling answer. -Bob

Coulda saved you some words. In the old days we simply called guys like squidly "bullies."

gee bob if garth is such a git why do you give him the press?

real estate is about to adjust down to a new level.

my bet is it will be way, way down.

take alook at some gold or silvr jrs why dont you eh?

and read strunk and white.

Garth will be proven right Bob will be proven wrong.

My prediction of a real estate correction will be proven wrong? Garth's prediction of $300 firewood will be proven right? Okay, we'll see. -Bob

Garth has no interest in freedom of speech nor in the reality of "Hongcouver Proper" Real Estate.

I continue to post messages to Garth...and cc to two existing bloggers for safekeeping.

Perhaps I will repost them here.

Garth is a wannabe "Middle Class, Conrad Black."

Nostradamus jr.

With Garth giving me top billing on his blog, this would be a good time to invite all those who get their comments deleted on Turner's blog to post them here as long they follow the blog rules. Bear in mind, I don't spend a lot of time moderating, so your comment might take a while to appear. (Just like that DA guy on Garth's blog, I'm frequently out hiking, biking and paddling. I guess in the 2nd greatest place on earth, Kananaskis. If you haven't heard of it, that's a good thing) -Bob

This is getting interesting...

Garth is cranking it up. Because Calgary resales $ are down 3% for the month, he prorates it at a 12 month, 30% reduction?

LOL!

That's usually the kind of prediction that ridicules Garth.

If anything, sales will stay down, prices will sllooowly go down by 10% by 2012...

Congratulations Bob for staring down the bully. Turner tries to disown his own prognostications by saying they were made two years ago and he shouldn't be held accountable for them. He gets very indignant when anyone questions him. Keep up the good work.

I've been reading GreaterFool for a couple of months now, and it is quite entertaining, but yes, there are a lot of nut-bars who respond.  It seems that the ones who've been banned for racial slurs and the like have found a new home here (Nost jr.).  Congratulations.

Other than that, his posts seem to be a fairly even-handed, giving a forum to all.

So Garth has made preditions that haven't happened.  So what.  In 2007, it seemed like the end of the world, so in hind-sight, hoarding cord wood and buying generators was a tad over-the-top.  But then again, you have been calling for a correction since 2007.  We all have.  It is just unbelievable that the housing market keeps climbing at this rate, and I think that is the point.  It has the same feel as the dot-com bubble.

By the way, his "Money Road" book is a bit more moderate.  His wealth building stragety might be considered boring.

All in all, I would give creedance to his warning about the future of realestate.  We are at the top of the rollercoaster (or very near), and it's a big one.

"Top of the roller coaster" We can both agree on that. Nobody gets to post racially motivated comments on here, sorry but you strike out on that one. -Bob

Wow!  For such a small town, Weyburn has produced some talent.

Their Chamber of Commerce could use that as their new slogan. -Bob

RE socialism in North America:

Was anyone predicted that govt would come with creative 0/40 or 5/35 mortgages and with super low interest rates?

If you give free load of money to buy only one asset which is backed by taxpayers.. price will go up. It does not matter what free market and economy dictate.

Let CMHC go out of the way. Buyers, sellers and banks should take all the risk.

I submitted this on Turner's blog but he would't post it:

'It’s obvious that most of you have not read Bob’s website. He’s been calling for a correction before this blog was a twinkle in Garth’s eye.

Was it an oversight Garth that you missed the first paragraph of Bob’s blog posting: “I’ve read his books and agree with his forecast of a real estate correction. I first made that prediction myself in Feb 2007. Garth started his blog in 2008. I’ve told every buyer that I expect to see lower prices. For the most part, I’ve been wrong.”

Interesting how Garth makes predictions that don’t come true and you all try to blame Bob truman. I fail to make the connection.

Congratulations to BT for staring down Garth the Bully."

Sorry, I was being sarcastic on the congratulations for inheriting Garth's blogger cast-offs.

I should have said "My Condolences".

In case that Garth won't post me:

All right!!!!!

We’re back to the early days of this blog circa late 2008 when the squirrel meat and other survivalist mentality – don’t forget Garth’s XURBIA survivalist webstore (LOL!!!) was “en vogue” here.

This is very clearly a pro-rental site for renters to spit on home owners and realtors under the guise of wise financial types:

No wonder what, this blog will promote the doom of home ownership for ever.

If real estate sales and prices are going down, it’s gonna be a huge “told y’all so!”

If prices are going up it’s gonna be a huge “the bubble will burst soon!”

I guess it’s better to rent and bitch to the landlord at 3am to come & change your roll of toilet paper or else…

It took me a while, but I clued in… (sarcasm).

Leaches.

I'm looking for a little info from the other readers on the blog.

I was presented with a strange comment today at work from a coworker who owns a house and was talking with another coworker who was about to buy a condo. I was asked what I paid a month in condo fees. I responded that I paid $400 per month. The comment that I found strange was the coworker then said why would you throw away $400 a month just for someone to mow your lawn and shovel your snow? I of course explained that that is not only what my fees pay for. But since she lives in a 2400 square foot house we had no way to cross reference. I think that my fees are pretty comparable to what I would pay for the same sizish house but now I'm curious.

Can anyone out there tell me what a comparable house would cost to operate for the following items that are included in my fees. I have a 1200 square foot condo with a gym and swimming pool.She pays $90 a month for a gym with a pool so lets say taking that out my fees would be $310 per month

My fees include

Heat

Electricity

Water/Sewer

Insurance (though I do pay an additional $25 per month for my contents insurance)

and Repairs?

and of course I pay for other things that a home owner would do themselves. But if any readers can comment on the above 4 items it would be appreciated.

Dude, you are an idiot. I look forward to buying a house from you in 2012, maybe I'll offer you half price...

You and James(from previous thread) are fitting ambassadors for Garth's blog, thanks. -Bob

Love your blog Bob, here's what I wrote on Garth's site, I can't believe he actually posted it, given my view lol. Sorry its a lil long!

Really don’t get it.

What do all you guys do for a living?

Cause ya know I hate anyone in healthcare, government, car industry, tradespeople, computer nerds, McDonald’s employees, that 7eleven guy…

Realtor is a job and a job that I think some people work their asses off for. I could never be one, don’t like the idea of working evenings and weekends. While I do think they are overpaid, I think anyone in a suit is overpaid.

When we bought our place of realtor worked his ass off to find us a cheap fixer upper. I mean these are places that other realtors wouldn’t even show to their clients. He got us an awsome price. Would we have been able to do it on our own, ya maybe but it would have been a lot more stressfull. Pretty good service for no money outta my pocket!

Have I met some sleezy realtors, oh yeah, especially in my business. So I am not really defending them all, but there are good realtors, no denying that.

Do I take Garth’s advice, sometimes. Have I ever regetted not listening to everything, nope. I have read Bob’s site and I never got the impression that he was fully bashing Garth. I saw him as giving another insight from someone that works in that field that we all love to hate.

Call me what you will, I am the one sitting comfortably in my house that I BOUGHT with the help of a realtor for cheap (bought in 2008 to boot, oh the horror!!). I don’t look at my place as an investment (I do have investments) I look at is as a roof over my head (even with property taxes, odd repair I still pay less than rent).

Well I’m off and taking a page from Bob and going to a nice walk thru the beautiful park right beside my house.

Bob and the realtors... stop being greedy and keep it real.

The way you've been ranting lately, your cracks are becoming obvious.

If you make your judgements based on ranting, Garth cracked a long time ago. Give me an example of greediness. -Bob

For some reason I keep being drawn to Garths blog. It's entertaining, really...

I agree with you though on the "sensational" aspect. So many of his posts talk about stupid young people with stellar incomes but no savings coming to him for advice. Seems silly to me..

That being said - what are your thoughts on this month, Bob? What does the future hold? I always look forward to the end / beginning of the month to see how it compares to statistical averages, and what the interpretation of all these numbers is.

Sales down 36% from the historical average doesn't sound like a vibrant market. On the other hand, it's a slight improvement over the previous month's, and Sep is starting out even better based on the pending sales. The absorption rate reversed direction, although 5.8 is still a big-time buyer's market. Inventory continued to drop but I can't tell you what will happen now. The average list price of pending sales is in the stratosphere at $530,446. The median is back up, too, at $419,000. Although I expect a long-term drop in prices, it doesn't look like it will be in a straight line. I can't speak for everyone, but I've noticed an increase in activity -  more phone calls, more emails, more listing notifiers. -Bob

How are prices going to go back up?

1)  Oil or natural gas is booming?

2)  Interest rates unclear which way going?

3)  New lending standards on houses.

4)  People maxed out on their qualifications about to default upon renewal.

5)  Negative growth in the city of Calgary.

Calgary is crashing.  As a renter I can sit and watch day to day.  IF prices start to go up, I can buy.  But there is no hurry as houses are still $200K above their real value.

Why buy an old house when I can buy new?

1)  Old roof.

2)  Old appliances.

3)  Who knows what else could go wrong or break.

Here's an idea:  Like everything else, real estate is worth LESS with age, not more.  

So many great builders in Calgary.  A person in wasting their time looking at crap shacks that are used with the seller trying to rip off the buyer.  No thanks!

I've been thinking of Garth's "annualization" fetish and realized a few things like :

In July it took 45 days to sell a house, in August, 50. At that rate of increase (9% monthly) it will take a homeowning fool 135 days to sell a house next year.

Inventory last month declined by 8.7% - that's 104% annualized so there will be a negative inventory next fall. How can this be? Ask Garth.

The high temperature in Calgary yesterday was 14

today it was 21 - at that rate of increase it will be 2570 degrees celsius next year. Talk about a hot day. I don't know how Garth sleeps at night.

On a more realistic note - seasonally adjusted, inventory took a big drop. Sales:New listings was essentially flat since it usually drops a bit between July and August. Ab rate change turned negative for the first time in months which may be a sign of a balanced market a few months away.

Anyway you look at it, mean dropped a lot. Median actually was close to flat though since it also usually declines in the late summer. Listings stopped their rapid decline and remained essentially flat along with sales.

Bob I think you might not be alone in noticing the activity. 51 sales on Sept 1 for SFH is a ton and well ahead of the recent months pace. I doubt we'll see 1500 sales in September though.

I'm still thinking there is more room to drop in price - inventory and listings usually go up in September over the last few years.

The macroeconomic picture is starting to look more optimistic. Active rigs are way up. Wages are well up in Alberta and unemployment is dropping quickly but hey I guess those are the 2 major ingredients for a housing crash in Garth's bizarro world so watch out.

Rip-off said:

"Like everything else, real estate is worth LESS with age, not more."

FAIL!  You forget that the appreciating asset is usually the LAND.  Look at the inner city shacks on big R2 lots and you'll see they are worth MORE with age due to the land they sit on.

FAIL!  This is why you failed so hard it's not even funny.  First of all you've given away $100,000 of money in rent that you will never get back, and second of all you will buy a REAL crap-shack built by high school dropouts when you DO decide to buy.  

Ask anyone in the inner city how solid their bungalow feels... mine has never flooded in 40 years, basement concrete foundation has ZERO crack lines.  Newer homes have cracks before they are finished building them.  Well reno'd inner city character homes are IN HIGH DEMAND due to their cool factor, location, and most of all the big lot of land they occupy.  Think of all the cool things that are found inside the city...restaurants, etc.  A patch of dirt in Mount Royal is probably worth more than a lot and home with granite counters in Sage Hill.

Your building is the depreciating asset, but the land is appreciating...unless you are far out in the boonies, in which case you'll have to wait for 50 years in order for the density of the city to appreciate your land.  

Yeah, good ole GT. Wonder how he feels every morning when he wakes up to see Mr. F making the headlines on about every media outlet, while he's stuck in an obscure cyberblog selling the concept of "annualized" RE gains/loses to an audience made of retirees, unemployed and self proclaimed multi-millionaires living in other people basements.

I like his investment advice though, the part where he says people should buy stocks that make money, not the loser ones. Of course he does not mention specifically which stocks those are, but hey is all about the message: "buy the winners ... stupid ... is all in my book". Well, is not really in the book either, but you'll only find that out after you buy the book and realize there is no refund.

Can anyone tell me the number of houses sold for August and how it compares against August sales for 2009, 2008 and 2007.  It appears CREA hasn't let the information be published in the main stream media yet.

Sales are down 36% compared to the long-term average. Who needs the MSM when you've got DailyStats.ca? -Bob

Zoro:

“If you own Nortel, or a mutual fund holding it, don’t bail out now… If you do not own Nortel, then this is the time to start accumulating it.”

Garth Turner, year 2000, Nortel stock: $50

...plummeting to pennies a share. -Bob

Found this gem on Garth's site today:

"#7 Phoenix Rising on 09.05.10 at 10:16 am

I don’t think the usual suspects who always post the dropping prices will post this so here goes: Average price in Calgary already up $20,000 this month.

Do you mean September, which is 4 days old? Post your source. — Garth"

Then a follow up:

"#12 Phoenix Rising on 09.05.10 at 10:39 am

Sorry, it’s really only up $19,996.

http://www.findcalgary.ca/page_content-19.html

Three days of sales. You have established a new level of absurdity on this blog. — Garth"

So I am concluding that Garth believes that 4 days does not make a trend.

According to him, a month - however - does make a trend:

"In any case, August sales were down almost 40% in Calgary, I hear, and the average home price fell $14,500 in a month. That’s 3.1%, or about 30% on an annualized basis".

Garth is basically flawed.

What if his reasoning loses folks tons of cash down the road? Who will make him accountable?

What's hilarious about the Walgreens/Gap/BBBY boycott:

They are buying more oil from tarsands in Venezuela as a result. Guess how much land reclamation/regulation is going on there.

In the end, their actions are completely irrelevant and only meant to cater to ignorant University/High school kids - this approach will probably work except in Alberta since there are many ignorant high school and university students to go around.

Maybe one of their competitors will realize they are "Deep sea drilling, Islamic Fundamentalist and Venezuelan tarsands" friendly and say something but in the end oil is oil. This will pass.

I'm not sure why folks on this blog are convinced that RE in Calgary will always goes up. The era of cheap money is about to end and we'll see a return to normal lending practices; the gov't has basically absorbed as much CMHC debt as it can choke down.(Fannie and Freddie went TU in the states for less). Unless you are really prepared to sell out your country from beneath our feet to foreigners just to keep the party going, it's time for a return to normalcy. It was fun while it lasted, but the RE money machine is over. Time to get back to work.  

USA doesn't buy oil from Alberta = USA ships oil from Middle East and Africa = China needs oil, but Saudi and Africa can't supply = China ships oil from Canada.    In the end, we are shipping more oil around the world, and making MORE greenhouse gases doing so because some "environmentalists" think that getting Washington to boycott Alberta Oil is a good thing.  We can pipe that oil down to USA with a very small carbon footprint addition, because PIPELINES are one of the least carbon intensive ways to transport oil.

Dame Edna - you are basing your comment on average sales over a few days. That's not a very good statistic. It'd be much better to look at Bob's 30-day averages (which have also gone up). 30 day averages are a much better indication of what's going on than 3 or 4 day averages.

If people listen to garth, or bob, or you and they loose money down the road then they themselves are responsible. You are, after all, making the decision to do something (or not). Whether or not you have based this on the words of somebody else, that doesn't really matter...

Hey Robert,

I was hoping you could point out anyone in this post that has stated that home prices are going up let alone "always goes up" your confusing this blog with garth's blog where people mindlessly parrot one talking line without looking at actual market trends.

If you actualy take the time to read the posts here you will see almost everyone is talking about some kind of correct or at the least flat prices for the near term. and while your here you might as well look at the actual number and make a decision for yourself.

Robert I don't think I've seen anyone here say RE will always go up. It obviously doesn't. You must be reading another blog and thinking it is this one.

Do you think RE in Calgary always goes down?

This straw man argument is like the "Buy now or be priced out forever" claim. If I had a penny for every time an RE bear said that and gave away a dollar every time a realtor said that, I'd be very rich.

Wow ! 150 new listings on www.realtyexecutivesapex.com since this morning

 98 of them are SFH in the city of Calgary. -Bob

Yeah, GTs famous Nortel stock advice, he also predicted back then flat RE prices for a decade. So whoever did not lose a boatload on the Nortel expert advice, most likely missed the boat on the RE.

But then, that's what you get when you follow financial advise from an English teacher.

Here's a link to a guy's blog, who for some reason has looked into GTs dealings, over time. Wonder if he's one of the guys who lost his pants to Nortel based on expert advice. Link

more then 1000 (!!!) new listings on www.realtyexecutivesapex.com

13200 jumped to 14400 during one night

Am I drunk ?

I think you're living in a parallel universe. SFH inventory went up by 32 listings yesterday. -Bob

Looks like it was a glitch.

Back to normal ~12300 listings

I'm a reader of both this and Garth's blog. And I have to say, I'm very surprised how out of context people in these comments take his information.

Yes, a 3% drop in one month IS an annualized loss of 36%, but he didn't say median prices was going to drop by 36%, just merely pointing it out. It was a sarcastic comment, intended to puncture a hole in the typical RE board comments that a 1% increase in July means an annualized 12% increase. Of course, when CREB states this, it's taken as literal truth.

I also wonder if people here have ever read comments on G&M on any highly politicized topic. It's always the extremists who post, but that does not ever imply the opinions of the average readership. Holding Garth accountable for the crazy sh*t people say in his comments is like blaming Nestle when your sugared up kid punches his best friend.

Just like G&M, comments are coming from the extremists. I now know where the militant home-owners like to hang out and beat up straw men.

Garth's exact words: "In any case, August sales were down almost 40% in Calgary, I hear, and the average home price fell $14,500 in a month. That’s 3.1%, or about 30% on an annualized basis." Greater Fool

Sure sounds to me like he's forecasting a 30% drop(based on one month's data).

Try doing some fact-based research next time. -Bob

Predicting the future of the housing market (if it was even possible)is far beyond anything one can or should expect from an RE agent. And if they could predict it, then pushing ownership now would be borderline immoral.

However, the tide has turned against buying now, and the fundamentals of the economy and personal finance as a whole is very dire. Bob, how can you argue against this? And how can the upcoming trainwreck be avoided?

Are you unable to read? I've been forecasting a drop in Calgary prices on this blog for years(and for the most part I've been wrong). I'm arguing FOR lower prices. Sheesh!

As for your condescending attitude towards real estate agents, my predictions for 2007, 2008 were more accurate than anyone else's.

See Predictions and scroll down to see my 2007, 2008 forecasts.

I didn't make a prediction for 2009 because I felt the situation was too volatile, and it turned out to be exactly that. Garth Turner was off by  31% with his prediction. The biggest loser

My Crash/Confidence index predicted the median price would be $398,000 or lower by October 2010. How do you think that one will turn out? -Bob

Bob one of the best things about your website is the statistics which us hard-core analysts love.

There was a good comment on Garth's blog today that illustrates a major difference between your site and the Greater Fool...

"...The comments section of Garth's blog is a clearing house for the unloved and rapacious ideas of the homeless er… houseless.

Watching this progress is an interesting exercise in understanding political corralling. It is quite often that Garth talks about the emotional value of housing—suggesting of course that a sober analyst is above such things.

Yet there is little to no sign of data provided on this site, just daily musings with media links often inciting a riot in the comments section. Most of the commenters here exude anxiety and come here for relief. Beware your own emotions doomers!

I don’t think it would be impossible for Garth to have a data section, a Canadian Case-Shiller posted in the corner, or a rolling data feed on housing starts, building permits, major city sales or whatever. It’s just that I think he’s doing much better fanning flames than really looking at the data.

And to be fair, the data doesn’t point to any sort of crash. I honestly thought this blog would close shop after housing raged back in 2010 to establish clearly unsustainable highs (but nevertheless evade downward movement forecast by Garth years back). But no, in classic bubble fashion, his blog has now gone “parabolic” with the least savvy people jumping on board for the last push.

Again doomers, beware your own emotions. And look out below…"