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Winners and Losers 2010

The usual anonymous loud-mouthed internet blowhards made a lot of noise about a price crash in 2010 which once again didn't materialize. You can judge for yourself who made the most accurate predictions:

Predictions 2010 

You can see the details of each prediction here

The following predictions were made for Calgary SFH for Dec 31, 2010: 

Date made

Price prediction

Actual

Error

CREA(Canadian Real Estate Association)


Feb 8, 2010


YTD avg


463,116


461,144


0.4%

Re/Max

Dec 2009

YTD avg

464,443

461,144

0.7%

CREB(Calgary Real Estate Board)


Jan 2010


YTD avg


470,000


461,144


1.9%

Jimmy

Dec 2009

YTD avg

477,713

461,144

3.5%

Carioca Canuck

  (Keith in Calgary)

Jan 27, 2010

30-day median

268,670

389,000

44%

Weasel Predictions(take note of date)

Garth Turner

Mar 31, 2010

30-day avg

400,579

441,341

10.2%

Squidly(too many other names

to fit here)

 Jul 22, 2010

30-day median

319,500

389,000

21.8%

Let the yelling, screaming, and excuses begin.

See last year's predictions

Posted: Friday, December 31, 2010 10:08 AM by Bob Truman

Comments

Bob Truman said:

In the midst of an “imminent” housing collapse:

·          Squidly's’s prediction increased from $217,395(avg) in 2009 to $319,500(median) in 2010. A $112,000 increase.

·          Garth Turner’s prediction increased from $354,788 in 2009 to $400,579 in 2010. An increase of $45,791.

# December 31, 2010 12:44 PM

Bob Truman said:

Carioca Canuck, aka Keith in Calgary, has been wrong by 44% for two consecutive years.

Carioca Canuck's infamous quotes:

Dec 29, 2010: "The math does not lie, and realtors do"

Sep 2009: "Why can't you REALTORS make coherent mathematical arguments that do not quickly get debunked by renters such as myself ?"

...and from Squidly(Jan 2010): "Its time for Bob Truman to walk the walk, instead of continually talking the talk. He also likes to pump gold, oil and nat gas on his blog, IMO gold will fall to $850/oz by the end of March, oil to $55 bbl and nat gas to $4 ggj"

Gold is over $1400. Oil is $90.

I must be a genius.

# December 31, 2010 12:50 PM

Bob Truman said:

Squidly waited until July to make his prediction and still was out by 22%. It's a big improvement over last year when he was wrong by 101%.

He's infamous for his repeated prediction that “Calgary sfh avg prices will be $160,000 in a very short time.” This prediction was first made in 2006. Finally, we know what “in a very short time” is: 5 years.

Squidly finally made it known that Dec 31, 2011 is the day, as he said on July 22, 2010: "Calgary home prices will likely plunge $15,000 a month for the next 18 months in a row, that's right, all the way down to the long term median price of about $160,000."


Note that it changed from average price to median price.


We'll allow his weasel prediction for this year, seeing as how he already has made his prediction for next year. 

# December 31, 2010 1:06 PM

Bob Truman said:

Garth Turner is preoccupied with insulting and ridiculing CREB, CREA and realtors. Does anyone think he'll show some integrity(maybe even "grow a pair") and give credit to these organizations who have made significantly more accurate predictions for the past two years? Or post a link to this page everytime he goes on a rant against realtors?

CREB has been within 2% of the actual price for 2 consecutive years. Turner was off by 27% last year and 10% this year.

For the new readers here, I called for a correction in house prices in Feb 2007, long before Garth Turner started his blog. I still believe he has a relevant message and that prices will drop, but we could do without the melodrama and insults. It would give him a lot more credibility, too.

When he named his blog The Greater Fool, he probably didn't realize who would ultimately look like the biggest fool.

# December 31, 2010 1:15 PM

Dame Edna said:

Bob, for your end of year's cheers. This will really be telling on how baffling squidly & brother in arm carioca really can be:

This morning (31th) squidly had a now deleted post in which Carioca posted a comment that went on to describe his MP (for Calgary Center) as a member of the Gay community (can't say here what he wrote: very nasty and unbecoming) and also threatened the MP's life by firing squad all that because, carioca went on to articulate was because his MP is "in bed" with area builders and what not.

Another blogger went to post that Carioca's death treats were e-mailed directly to the MP in question. Shortly after, the actual post was deleted!!!

I think that those two dummies really have shown their true colours.

They're the internet equivalent of vandals and graffiti artists. - Bob

# December 31, 2010 1:48 PM

Dame Edna said:

With regards to Garth Turner:

He has less readers on his blog. Even for the volume of replies, they're mostly the same dozen or so cronies. His message is both irrelevant and repetitive.

My take on the Calgary resale market for 2011?

Prices down 5% on average. sales steady at where they are.

# December 31, 2010 1:51 PM

Bob Truman said:

2010 Stats Final 

For single family homes;

30-day Dec median price at $389,000 is down 3% from 2009 when it was $401,000.

Year-to-date median at $406,000 is up 3.6% from 2009 when it was $392,000.

30-day Dec average price at $441,341 is down 2.2% from 2009 when it was $451,349.

Year-to-date average at $461,144 is up 4.3% from 2009 when it was $442,327.

Sales of SFH were down 8% compared to Dec 2009. Year-to-date sales were down 16%.

Inventory is 1% lower than we normally see at this time of year(compared to 2006-2009).

There is a 111-day supply of homes on the market. The average over the past four years on Dec 31 has been a 115-day supply. For homes priced under $500,000 there is a 90-day supply.

# January 1, 2011 10:34 AM

Jimmy said:

It's difficult to predict YTD numbers since you are really predicting prices 7-9 months away. I'm more bearish about 2011 YTD numbers, let's say a 1% gain by next Dec. for SFH Mean, and 0% for median. Hats off to the realtor boards who always seem to do well in this despite what many bloggers think.

This year is starting off only slightly bullish in my book which will result in lower year-on-year prices until the summer, and then positive year-on-year into the fall. We have a lot of catching up to get to last Springs prices.

The decline in inventory and improving sales:new listings predict a pickup in the market in the next couple of months.

# January 1, 2011 6:10 PM

Joe Winnipeg said:

With all due respect, stop being so naive.

People don't make these wild predictions and statements to be right, they do it to make $$, Howard Kunstler, Anne Coltuer, the Amazing Mezzo and so forth. People discovered a long time ago that you can make money by making wild predictions and statements.

Stop paying attention to them; they could care less whether they're right or wrong. All they want is the attention.

The people who really believe these statements keep it to themselves because they're too busy making a killing off the swing in the numbers.

# January 2, 2011 12:11 PM

Calgary's OK said:

Here is a link to article in Montreal Gazette dated 30 Dec 2010 - http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/solid+basis+scary+speculation/4039586/story.html I know it may infuriate a lot of people who are still waiting for a half-price houses in Canada in general and in Calgary in particular, but I couldn't help myself to post it as it kind of resonates with my own view on the Canadian RE Bubble theory.  

# January 5, 2011 5:24 PM

Robert James said:

Here is a link for the Garth Turner fans,, Dame Edna, you might like this ttp://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Calgary+home+sales+drop+lowest+level+years/4059473/story.html  Seems that Garth is being quoted./

# January 5, 2011 6:20 PM

Harold said:

Bob. What's your opinion of recent city of calgary assessments? Mine in West Springs went from $735k (2010) to $870k (2011). What are they smoking over there?

As I've always said, assessments are meaningless when it comes to pricing your house. They determine your tax, that's all. -Bob

# January 5, 2011 11:28 PM

Bob Truman said:

“As for prices, they were up slightly over 2009 levels, so I bombed there.” 

-Garth Turner, in an uncharacteristic act of humility, commenting on his price prediction.

 http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/01/04/alarmist/

# January 6, 2011 11:08 AM

Dame Edna said:

squidly77 on his blog is still confused and dithering on a 2011 prediction:

"I forecast that they will fall 12.5% to $352,112.

This is a forecast for all sales that will occur in Calgary metro for all of 2011.

Still waiting on the realtors and their respective boards."

What an ass he is. 12.5%? He's all over the place! Last year he said resale prices would go down to $160K, now he's double that to $320K...

He's sounding awfully bullish. That's a substantial increase considering that a crash is just around the corner.  He criticizes CREA for making multiple predictions, then goes ahead and does it himself. -Bob

# January 6, 2011 9:51 PM

Dame Edna said:

Garth Turner runs a censored blog.

I have proof that he is not objective & rejects posts and comments that disprove him.

Sad...

Thank you Bob for being a very professional guy: at least you see both sides of the fence and allow different opinions here. Rare in my opinion.

# January 6, 2011 10:45 PM

Dame Edna said:

Morning Bob,

In Squidly's latest posting:

https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=4782412295304442241&postID=1730278688569898059

Carioca Canuck refers to you as a sociopath:

"Bob Truman has turned clinically sociopathic now and has been caught posting here, and on Garth Turner's blog with multiple aliases trying desperately to impune the character of those who use logic, facts, and reason to discredit the criminals that abound within the REIC, rather than try to defend himself and said industry against our arguments".

So you know.

That's encouraging. To engage in personal attacks against me, it shows that Carioca actually has the ability to feel embarrassed by his appalling predictions. He's admitted that he is financially bankrupt; we can see that he is intellectually bankrupt; this is a faint glimmer of hope that he may not be emotionally bankrupt. Let's continue to support him in his quest to become an emotionally-healthy and productive member of society. He seems to be making some progress as his comments have fewer swear words in them.

It's humiliating for him to see the realtors make accurate predictions while he's not even in the ballpark. This further alienates him from being a functional member of society, but only he has the ability to turn his life around. Let's hope he is open-minded enough to learn from his mistakes, and realize that realtors are much more capable of predicting house prices than he is.

His unfortunate circumstances have created in him the habit of running away from responsibility. eg; too many debts - go bankrupt; kids are unruly - abandon them. You'd think that serving time in the slammer would have given him some time for reflection on his evil ways.  Holding him accountable for his actions is the first step in his rehabilitation. He's still in denial, but we must remain optimistic and supportive that he'll see the light.

The big question is....will Carioca have the balls to make a prediction for 2011? Would he take a chance on being wrong by 44% for THREE consecutive years? This is a great opportunity for him to show the world that he's trying to be more sensible.

Garth Turner said it best: the more they attack you, the more they're afraid of you. Guys like Carioca are scared of the accurate and relevant information provided by this website because it contradicts their agenda. -Bob

# January 8, 2011 7:28 AM

Peter said:

Hi Bob,

As a very often visitor your skying pictures site I want ask your: when your update them?

My skiing photos are now on my ski blog SkiHere.ca -Bob

# January 8, 2011 10:50 AM

Bob Truman said:

He's all over the place! Last year he said resale prices would go down to $160K, now he's double that to $320K...

Why have the bubble bloggers moderated their stance so dramatically?

The evolution of the housing crash according to bubble bloggers

 

 

2006

 

There will be blood

in the streets

 

2007

 

A collapse is imminent

 


2008

 

The great unwinding

is upon us now

 

2009

 

house price crash is now

clearly dead ahead

 

 

2010


you can see and smell the sheer panic and fear in the air. The bust will happen this year

 

2011

we will see a drop of 10-15%

 

# January 8, 2011 1:50 PM

dame Edna said:

Speaking of predictions...

Can you have a post for what readers of your blog think will happen for 2011 in Greater Calgary and also for Edmonton and Alberta as a whole?

# January 8, 2011 3:04 PM

CM said:

Have you been sent this letter from CREA yet Bob?

http://www.teamfisher.com/images/teamblog/crea_call_to_action_01_04_2011.jpg

Just curious about your opinion, will you be writing to parliament?

No and no. I should note that when I do feel concerned about an issue, I have written to my MP who happens to be Jim Prentice. -Bob

# January 9, 2011 1:20 AM

DailyStats.ca said:

The Calgary Real Estate Board predicts single family home prices will increase 4.1% in 2011 to $480,000,

# January 18, 2011 11:55 AM

DailyStats.ca said:

Take the Online Poll: When will Garth end it? After three years of promising that a housing crash is

# April 8, 2011 12:43 AM
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