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No more 35

Ground zero

Yesterday was probably the last day you could shop for a house if you were hoping to get a 35-year amortization before the rules change. Deals have to be approved by March 17, and it takes up to five business days to get financing arranged and approved. 

We should start to see a pronounced drop in pending sales immediately. That is, if buyers require 35-year amortizations. Let's keep an eye on it.

SFH pendings today are at 364.

Condo pendings are at 181.

The new rule applies only to CMHC-insured mortgages.

Posted: Saturday, March 12, 2011 8:13 AM by Bob Truman

Comments

Bob Truman said:

Actual firm sales numbers should start to drop in a week.

For the period Jan 25 - Mar 11, SFH sales are up 13% compared to last year. Condo sales are down 4%.

The new rules were annnounced on Jan 18.

# March 12, 2011 9:37 AM

Bob Truman said:

New listings for the period Mar 1-14 are down 17% compared to last year. Historically, however, they're down only 2%.

Stats to Obsess Over

Sales & new listings compared to the historic average for single family homes

 

Sales
(A)

New listings

(B)

CC Index

A-B

2011

Mar 1-14

-11%

-2%

-9

Feb

-12%

+12%

-24

Jan

-24%

-4%

-20

2010

Dec

-17%

-18%

+1

Nov

-23%

-14%

-9

Oct

-27%

-14%

-13

Sep

-24%

+2%

-26

Aug

-36%

-8%

-28

Jul

-37%

-12%

-25

Jun

-35%

+13%

-48

May

-25%

+12%

-37

Apr

-19%

+25%

-44

Mar

-14%

+20%

-34

Feb

-24%

+3%

-27

Jan

-29%

-15%

-14

CC Index: The lower the number, the more likely we’re heading for lower prices.
For more information about the Crash/Confidence Index see Crash/Confidence Index Explained

# March 15, 2011 8:44 AM

Bob Truman said:

Countdown to March 18

I expected to see a significant drop in pending sales now that buyers can't get the 35-year amotization, but pendings have actually risen in the past few days:

SFH pendings: 396

Condo pendings: 190 

It would be a tight timeline, but I guess it's possible that buyers are still trying to get their financing in order before March 18.

# March 15, 2011 8:53 AM

C&L said:

# March 15, 2011 12:08 PM

Yeebs said:

I just don't get it.

Here's an example at 3.75% fixed rate:

$300,000 mortgage, 35yr amortization = 1278/month

$237,000 interest paid over life

$300,000 mortgage, 30yr amortization = 1384/month

$198,000 interest paid over life

$100/month extra to save almost $40,000 in interest over the long-term... seems like a no-brainer to me. Are we that close to the wire that reducing 5 years amortization is going to kill the market?? Come on people... seriously. If we had any sense, we all would just buy what we could afford and pay it off as fast as we could to eliminate giving it to the banks. I can't believe people are worried about this. What ever happened to saving? People buy fancy cars for $50000 and Louis Vuitton handbags for $1500 but can't afford to pay an extra $100 a month? you gotta be kidding me...

You expect people to be logical and rational? I just heard on the news that Calgarians have bought out the supplies of iodine in the city. We are in no danger whatsoever, but even if we were, iodine is the wrong substance. It's potassium iodide. Read more from CTV Calgary Iodine supplements selling out -Bob

# March 15, 2011 12:10 PM

Bob Truman said:

Mortgage rates go down

RBC cut rates on its four- and 10-year fixed-rate mortgages by 0.15 percentage points on Tuesday, while the five-year rate was cut by 0.10 points and the seven-year rate by 0.20. The bank’s special rate on a five-year closed mortgage now stands at 4.19 per cent.

After one bank reduces mortgage rates, the rest of the industry tends to follow suit. In fact, Bank of Montreal came out Tuesday evening with mortgage rate cuts, and other banks are likely to follow.

Royal Bank cuts mortgage rates

# March 15, 2011 8:24 PM

Bob Truman said:

Minister of spin, Garth Turner says…

 

Right now sellers are taking a bath in places like Edmonton, Calgary, Surrey, Kitchener, Kelowna and Muskoka.

 

Let’s look at the facts. These are today’s SFH sales(to 9:30 pm) which have a history of a previous sale. Garth might want to re-phrase that to…

 

Right now sellers are making an average of $113,909 on the sale of their home in Calgary

 

Sold price

Purchase price

Profit/loss

935,000

540,000

395,000

800,000

540,000

260,000

735,300

679,230

56,070

691,720

358,414

333,306

528,800

468,000

60,800

517,000

514,000

3,000

472,000

90,000

382,000

485,000

146,000

339,000

429,500

249,000

180,500

410,000

250,000

160,000

405,000

215,000

190,000

392,500

390,000

2,500

389,000

183,250

205,750

388,500

401,000

-12,500

372,000

360,000

12,000

377,000

152,900

224,100

332,000

323,000

9,000

337,000

363,500

-26,500

300,000

209,500

90,500

318,000

330,000

-12,000

300,000

394,400

-94,400

278,000

118,000

160,000

275,000

152,000

123,000

272,500

340,000

-67,500

238,000

250,000

-12,000

# March 15, 2011 10:42 PM

TT said:

Bob - interesting breakdown on daily sales.

While these people are making money on their homes, I thought a bit of additional context could provide some more insight:

1) how much less is the average "profit" if you factor in a typical 7% / 3.5% real estate agent commission?  

2) how many of the "profitable" homes had their last sale prior to 2005?  

3) And finally, how do we know that these people didn't invest additional capital into renovations etc?  

Thanks,

TT

All valid points, but what I was really trying to do was to show how Garth is a bigger spinmeister than any real estate board. Reading his statement would give someone a totally misleading assessment of the situation.

14 were sold post-2005, of which 6 were sold at a loss. Do you think it would have provided a more accurate picture if Garth had "added some context?"

Pointing out the obvious is not necessary. Everyone reading this knows there are fees associated with selling your property. No one knows from Garth's statement whether he was telling the truth or not.

Knowing that his followers take his words at face value, is Garth providing a helpful service to his readers by hiding the facts? A more important question is: Why does he need to hide the facts? -Bob

# March 16, 2011 7:59 AM

Bob Truman said:

Turner’s misleading people in another way: New listings jumped 1.5% in a month, or an annualized 18%.”

Let’s look at another annualized number which Garth won’t post:

Median price in Calgary was up $10,000 in Feb, or annualized, that would result in a median price of $530,000 by Jan.  

Absurd.

# March 16, 2011 8:46 AM

TT said:

Bob, you're absolutely right.  And don't get me wrong, I was not trying to defend Garth.  He provides zero context and will not validate his statements.  He is afraid to be proven wrong and moderates his blog to protect his cowardly heiny.  That is why I spend almost no time on his blog and regularily visit yours and Mike's.  We can't do much for his faithful followers except hope they realize for themselves that the message is spun, the facts are not facts, and Garth never will admit he is wrong.

I was one of the poor souls that frequented Garth's site, always ready for the next post.  It only took a couple months to see the authoritarian approach he applies to his "blog dogs", that he's not interested in being questioned and that his facts are full of spin.  So I took it upon myself to find a better resource and here I am.

So with that, I thank you again Bob for creating this forum.  The less we worry or talk about Garth, the better!

# March 16, 2011 9:33 AM

Vinny said:

Bob, I love your comment about "You expect people to be logical and rational?" .  We probably all have several friends that make investing decisions that would prove quite contrary to logical and rational.  Some if it is out of emotional attachment and some are just bad habits.  Of course sometimes it's just obvious when we have the hindsight tool too.

# March 16, 2011 1:45 PM
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