Bob Truman, First Place Realty

Equilibrium in the Calgary housing market

2011-10-28T16:28:00Z

For the past three years, the October median price has averaged $395,967, almost exactly where we are today($395,000), and t he market continues to be uneventful. Perhaps we've finally reached equilibrium after years of volatility. Shrinking inventory in the fall of 2005 was the precursor of the huge price increases of 2006. It was a roller coaster for a period of time thereafter. The median price in October 2005 was $258,500. Today it's $395,000, a 53% increase. Compared to the peak which...(read more)

Off to a good start in October

2011-10-10T02:30:00Z

For the first eight days of October, sales are up 25% compared to last year. Going back a little further, compared to the past three years, sales are up 8%. The Oct median price is up substantially at $398,250 compared to $366,750 last year. If you're selling, there's even more good news. New listings are down 9% compared to last year. Compared to the past three years, they're down 18%. While fewer listings is not such good news if you're a buyer, our inventory increased last month...(read more)

Canada - picked as the best in the world

2011-10-05T02:28:00Z

"countless Americans threaten to move to Canada if their preferred candidate does not emerge victorious. Of course, few follow through with a move north. Maybe it is time to reconsider." It turns out we are different here after all. Forbes Magazine has picked Canada as the best country on the face of the earth in which to do business. We moved up from #4 in last year's ranking. Completing the top 10 behind Canada were New Zealand, Hong Kong, Ireland, Denmark, Singapore, Sweden, Norway,...(read more)

What happened in September

2011-09-30T13:02:00Z

Here's a sneak preview of the Sept 2011 numbers. First, though, let's look at a bold statement made exactly one year ago, on Sept 30, 2010. CIBC said Alberta house prices are overvalued by 12.5% After all the predictions of gloom and doom, the September market was surprisingly robust. Sales are up 8% compared to last year, and down 7% compared to the 3-year average. Inventory has finally started to improve and is almost identical to last year. It's up 7% compared to the 3-year average....(read more)

Indicators of the future

2011-09-26T15:36:00Z

In this time of turmoil in the world's economy, it will be interesting to watch what's happening to sentiment among the buyers and sellers of Calgary real estate. The CC Index takes into account sales and new listings. If it continues to drop, I could see some rain clouds in our future. An increase in pending sales bodes well, however, the median price will be going down. What will the forecast be like one week from now?...(read more)

Calgary Rip-Off buys a house

2011-09-21T02:13:00Z

The more fanatical they are, the harder they fall Just when things were getting boring around here, we have some unbelievable news. Many of the former bubble bloggers changed their minds and bought a house, realizing it was the right thing to do. One person who I never imagined would buy a house is our old friend, Calgary Rip-Off. After not hearing from the dude for over a year, I mentioned his name earlier today(see previous post) and look what shows up on the GreaterFool from Rip-Off himself: Garth....(read more)

Life goes on

2011-09-16T15:13:00Z

Welcome back! After seeing the comment yesterday from Yeebs(on the previous post), I thought I better leave the summer behind and get on with it. Following the real estate market in Calgary is like watching paint dry. You missed nothing if you didn't check the stats or the real estate blogs for the past two months. Things seem to have settled into a predictable pattern... Spring up, fall down . I had an inkling that nothing significant would occur over the summer months, so I put my time to better...(read more)

Predictions update for 2011

2011-06-26T17:16:00Z

As we near the end of the first half of the year, Calgary's real estate prices are nowhere near the predictions. Except for CREB's and CMHC's. I'll be posting a mid-year predictions update, but I wanted to ask my readers if anyone has seen a concrete prediction from Garth Turner for this year? I may have missed it. He did make one for spring, but I didn't see one for year-end. I don't have time to search, so if anyone can find a prediction from Turner for Dec 2011, let me...(read more)

Vandals

2011-06-17T16:47:00Z

Sad to say, the Vancouver riots didn't surprise me. Read a real estate bubble blog any day of the week, and you'll plainly see these people are out there. People lacking any decency and any respect for society's norms. I caught Rex Murphy's take on it last night; eloquent as always, but Rex was impassioned as he delivered his take on the riots, with which I completely agree: "Those clod poles, ne’er-do-wells, vandals, punks, thugs and assorted clueless dolts who smacked...(read more)

More surprises

2011-06-16T16:08:00Z

With almost half the year under our belts, it's safe to say that events have not transpired as we expected when the year began. The 30-day median price, at $423,000 is higher than it was last year at this time. The SFH sales for Jun 1-15 are 31% higher than last year, and 5% higher than the 3-year average. New listings are down 9% compared to last year. The inventory did not "swell" as some pundits predicted. It's actually lower than last year. First-time buyers are re-surfacing....(read more)

Will Calgary follow in Vancouver's footsteps?

2011-06-07T18:48:00Z

BMO: "...Calgary’s house prices stand a reasonable chance of growing alongside incomes in coming years.” Read more: Calgary housing market recovers more than half its losses The headline is misleading. To be precise, Calgary has recovered 82% of its losses. The average price fell 18% between Jul 2007 and Jan 2009. At the end of May 2011, it was down 3%. The article goes on to say, However, valuations have improved since 2007, with prices at 4.2 times income, less than the national...(read more)

"My commute is killing me!"

2011-06-05T17:13:00Z

This comment was submitted in response to the article Driving ourselves mad "This cannot be truer of an article. I've moved inner city and the fact that I can get to work in 5-10 minutes is just a quality of life perk I cannot do without. What doesn't make sense is those who live out in Chestermere and drive to the west-side of the Calgary for work. What are you thinking? Not only is that environmentally unfriendly, but they spend about 2 hours a day or more driving. 10 hours a work...(read more)

Losing streaks

2011-05-31T15:01:00Z

The hockey season is way too long. I can still remember when there were only six teams, and I recall watching the Leafs win their last Stanley cup - in April! Come to think of it, what do the Leafs and bubble bloggers have in common? A: Both on long losing streaks. For five long years we've been listening to the doomsayers and their predictions of crash and burn. For five long years they've been wrong. It's different this time All the stars were in alignment for the perfect firestorm...(read more)

What are you doing with your time on this planet?

2011-05-30T02:43:00Z

This comment was worth a posting of its own(thanks, Moneyman). Most real estate blogs get pre-occupied with the investment aspect, whereas there's plenty more to consider when deciding to rent or buy: I'm in finance, and money should be all that matters to me.... but then again life is more than just money. Running a calculation and saying rent or buy based purely on the money you have left over after 10-20 years isn't realistic. You can always make more money but you can never buy back...(read more)

Willful Blindness

2011-05-25T15:24:00Z

This spring was supposed to be the start of a long-awaited correction in house prices. I predicted that we'd see a price at the end of June of $388,000, but today the median price sits at $420,000, and I'm surprised, to say the least. That would be a drop of 7.6%. Once upon a time, the monthly median price increased by 11.2%, so it's still possible but highly unlikely. This year, we had no more excuses. The mortgage rule change on March 18 created a brief flurry of activity, but that...(read more)