Don't get too alarmed or excited when you hear in the media that Jan sales were up 39%. In reality, sales were down 29% compared to the historical average for Jan.
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Despite the increase in inventory, it's still only 62% of last year's level, and that doesn't make for a good selection of homes for buyers. Let's hope the sales-to-new-listings ratio stays around 40% as that will give inventory some time to catch up and we'll remain in a balanced market.
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When you see 14% of homes selling at list price or higher, as happened in Jan, you know there's a shortage of product. I'd prefer to see that figure around zero.
The single family home median price fell $3,000 in Jan, to $398,000. That’s a drop of 1%. The condo price stayed exactly the same as Dec.
Jan 2010 stats summary:
The median price of single family homes(SFH) at $398,000 is down $3,000, or .8% from Dec. It's up 6.2% from Jan 2009 when it was $374,700.
The SFH average price at $441,217 is down $10,132 or 2.2% compared to Dec. It's up $28,168, or 6.8% from Jan 2009 when it was $413,049.
SFH sales price per sq ft at $299 was down $3, or 1% compared to Dec. It’s up $30, or 11%, from Jan 2009 when it was $269
Sales of single family homes were up 39% compared to Jan 2009.
Sales of SFH are down 29% compared to the historic average for Jan.
SFH Inventory on Jan 31 was 2513, which is 38% lower than last year.
New listings at 1822 were down 12% compared to last year.
The absorption rate of 3.3 means that we have a 3.3 month, or 99 days, supply of homes on the market. Last year, there was a 7.4 month supply. For homes under $500,000, there is a 2.6 month supply.
Days on Market(DOM) decreased to 43 in Jan from 47 in Dec. Last year, it was 62.
12 homes sold for $1 million or more. Last year, there were 6.
Price reductions are down 41% compared to last year. We've averaged 32 price reductions per day over the past week. Last year was 54.
31% of the homes listed in Jan already have a sale or a conditional sale. Last year, it was 11%.
14% of SFH sold for list price or higher. Last month was 10%.
31% of SFH sold during their first 7 days on the market. Last month was 21%.
The median price of condos at 265,000 is the same as Dec.
The median price of condos is up $22,000 or 9.1% from Jan 2009.
Condo sales at 376 are up 67% compared to Jan 2009.
Stats to Obsess Over
For the period Jan 1 – 21:
| SFH | Condo |
|
Sales | New listings |
Sales | New Listings |
2010
|
442 |
1222 | 223 |
626 |
2009
|
279 |
1400 |
110 |
606 |
Historic Avg(9 yrs)
|
626 |
1463 |
228 |
610 |
2010 compared to historic avg
|
-29% |
-16% |
-2% | 3% |
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For single family homes:
% of sales equal to or over list price
|
14% |
Homes sold in 7 days or less as a % of total sales
|
26% |
14% of homes selling at list price or higher seems high. Sales of SFH are low compared to the historical average. Is it due to a shortage of inventory?
Condo sales and new listings are consistent with the historical average.
Just updated the "Calgary Market Trends" page. In the first week of 2010, 17% of single family homes sold at list price or higher. That's not good news for buyers. That's higher than it's been at any time in the past four months. It could be a blip. Let's hope so.
Or is this the start of a mad rush to buy a home before interest rates rise?
92 sales this past week doesn't look that geat compared to the historical average which is 124, but it looks fantastic compared to last year's 58.
On the other side of the coin, inventory, while still low, is going up at a faster rate than it did last year.
2100 active listings is almost nothing when you consider a lot of those are duds that have been collecting dust. We'll need a lot of new listings to keep the pressure off. Let's see how it goes...the weekly updates will be interesting to watch.
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Dec 2009 stats summary:
The median price of single family homes(SFH) at $401,000 is down $7,000, or 1.7% from Nov. It's up 5.5% from Dec 2008 when it was $380,000.
The SFH average price at $451,348 is down $13,096 or 2.8 compared to Nov. It's up $33,950, or 8.1% from Dec 2008 when it was $417,398.
SFH sales price per sq ft at $302 was down $2, or .7% compared to Nov. It’s up $30, or 11%, from Dec 2008 when it was $272.
Sales of single family homes were up 78% compared to Dec 2008.
Sales of SFH are down 8% compared to the historic average for Nov.
Year-to-date sales at 14,442 are up 7.4% compared to last year.
SFH Inventory on Dec 31 was 2053, which is 47% lower than last year.
New listings at 806 were down 4% compared to last year.
The absorption rate of 2.6 means that we have a 2.6 month, or 78 days, supply of homes on the market. Last year, there was an 8.6 month supply. For homes under $500,000, there is a 1.7 month supply.
Days on Market(DOM) increased to 47 in Dec from 42 in Nov. Last year, it was 61.
20 homes sold for $1 million or more. Last year, there were4.
Price reductions are down 64% compared to last year. We've averaged 6 price reductions per day over the past week. Last year was 17.
26% of the homes listed in Dec already have a sale or a conditional sale. Last year, it was 9%.
10% of SFH sold for list price or higher. Last month was 12%.
21% of SFH sold during their first 7 days on the market. Last month was 24%.
The median price of condos at 265,000 is up $100 from Nov.
The median price of condos is up $11,000 or 4.4% from Dec 2008.
Condo sales at 341 are up 66% compared to Dec 2008.
Year-to-date condo sales at 6,331 are up 11.8% compared to last year.
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Think back one year. Did anyone believe prices would rise 11% over the next 12 months? This exercise is to show how incredibly difficult it is to make an accurate prediction, especially when the well-educated bank economists were barely on the radar screen.
Considering the volatility of the real estate market in early 2009, making a price prediction that comes within 2% was astonishingly accurate(and probably lucky). We can declare CREB as the winner of the predictions game for 2009. Everyone else was off by a significant amount. You can see for yourself who the biggest loser was:
You can see the details of each prediction here: http://www.bobtruman.com/Predictions/page_2147092.html We'll assume the final SFH average price on Dec 31, 2009 will be $463,000. The following average prices were predicted for Dec 2009:
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| Price Prediction for Dec 31, 2009 | % Error |
CREB* | $451,120* | 2%* |
Garth Turner | $354,788 | 31% |
Keith in Calgary aka Carioca Canuck | $313,049 | 48% |
Squidly(aka zoogle) | $225,000 | 106% |
RJT(AB Bubble Blog) | $387,398 | 20% |
TD Economics | $356,458 | 21% |
CIBC World Markets | $375,658 | 23% |
Mike(don't get addicted...) | $253,000 | 83% |
| *** |
|
*CREB prediction is for year-to-date price. All others are 30-day prices. YTD avg price in 2009 will be approx $442,000. |
CREB also went against popular sentiment and predicted a sales increase in 2009 of 10%. They were very close, as sales will likely end the year up about 7%.
I can hear the excuses now: blame low interest rates. Everyone had the same information available to them when these predictions were made. The lesson I take from all this is that no one really knows where prices or sales are headed. To pretend you're an expert is fine, but all readers should keep in mind that these are wild guesses based on preconceived agendas.
If interest rates were the wild card in 2009, what will it be in 2010?
For the record, I think prices are above what the market can fundamentally support over the long term.
Let the yelling and screaming ensue. I have the utmost respect for anyone who is willing to make a fool of themselves, but if you are defensive and indignant, just remember, YOU made the prediction. I'm simply reporting it.
All predictions for 2010 are welcome.
Single family homes sales were up 63% compared to last year. Condo sales were up a mind-boggling 77%. Inventory continues to shrink. A sales/new listings ratio of 80% bodes well for sellers.
Nov 2009 stats summary:
The median price of single family homes(SFH) at $408,000 is down $2,000, or .5% from Oct. It's up 5.3% from Nov 2008 when it was $387,300.
The SFH average price at $464,444 is up $1,979 or .4% compared to Oct. It's up 6.7% from Nov 2008 when it was $435,471.
SFH sales price per sq ft at $304 was up $5, or 1.7% compared to Oct. It’s up $23, or 8.2%, from Nov 2008 when it was $281.
Sales of single family homes were up 63% compared to Nov 2008.
Sales of SFH are down 4% compared to the historic average for Nov.
SFH Inventory on Nov 30 was 2658, which is 48% lower than last year.
New listings at 1365 were down 13% compared to last year.
The absorption rate of 2.4 means that we have a 2.4 month, or 72 days, supply of homes on the market. Last year, there was a 7.6 month supply. For homes under $500,000, there is a 2.0 month supply.
Days on Market(DOM) increased to 42 in Nov from 41 in Oct. Last year, it was 55.
28 homes sold for $1 million or more. Last year, there were 20.
Price reductions are down 54% compared to last year. We've averaged 34 price reductions per day over the past week. Last year was 74.
29% of the homes listed in already have a sale or a conditional sale. Last year, it was 10%.
12% of SFH sold for list price or higher. Last month was also 12%.
24% of SFH sold during their first 7 days on the market. Last month was 25%.
The median price of condos at 264,900 is up $1,400 or .5% from Oct.
The median price of condos is up $13,100 or 5.2% from Nov 2008.
Condo sales at 504 are up 77% compared to Nov 2008.
No, this isn't about hockey or football. Sara and Sheldon from The Edmonton Real Estate Blog have posed this question to our readers:
"The price of single family homes in Calgary has been on the rise all year, while in Edmonton we are seeing increased demand for single family homes but prices are pretty stagnant. Why do you think that is?"
By all estimates it appears that single family home sales in October will be approx 1260. That translates to an increase of 54% compared to Oct 2008 and the highest percentage increase for any month ever; at least since I've been keeping records. Of course we must take into account that Oct last year was a time of great fear and uncertainty. Historically, going back to the year 2000, sales will be up about 5%.
Contrary to my prediction for this autumn, all indictors on my page Calgary market trends point to an amazingly robust market with upward pressure on prices.
The Absorption rate by price range shows almost all price ranges in balanced market territory, but if you are a buyer looking for a home under $500,000, I think you'll agree with me that for all practical purposes it's a seller's market.
Inventory continues to drop. There are 44% fewer homes for sale this year. Although the percentage of unoccupied condos is higher than last year, overall the Vacant listings have dropped 45% compared to last year.
The big question is: will I be posting a topic one year from now which says:
“Highest decrease ever?” _____________________________________________________________
Still no signs of my predicted price decrease
Compared to last year, for single family homes(SFH):
- Sales are up 9%. Historically, going back to the year 2000, sales are up 2%. The average price, median price, and sales price per sq ft are all up. Homes are selling quicker, and the inventory is down by 42%.
Compared to last month:
- The median price was virtually the same and the average was up $4,909.
Sep 2009 stats summary:
The median price of single family homes(SFH) at $399,900 is down $100 or .03% from Aug. It's up 1.2% from Sep 2008 when it was $395,000.
The SFH average price at $459,085 is up $4,955 or 1.1% compared to Aug. It's up 3.4% from Sep 2008 when it was $444,048.
SFH sales price per sq ft at $303 was up $12, or 4.1% compared to Aug. It’s up $8, or 3%, from Sep 2008 when it was $295.
Sales of single family homes were up 9% compared to Sep 2008.
Sales of SFH are up 2% compared to the historic average for Sep.
SFH Inventory on Sep 30 was 3148, which is 42% lower than last year.
New listings at 1857 were down 29% compared to last year.
The absorption rate of 2.5 means that we have a 2.5 month, or 75 days, supply of homes on the market. Last year, there was a 4.7 month supply. For homes under $500,000, there is a 1.9 month supply.
Days on Market(DOM) decreased from 42 in Aug to 40 in Sep. Last year, it was 51.
36 homes sold for $1 million or more. Last year, there were 25.
Price reductions are down 55% compared to last year. We've averaged 51 price reductions per day over the past week. Last year was 114.
28% of the homes listed in Sep already have a sale or a conditional sale. Last year, it was 10%.
13% of SFH sold for list price or higher. Last month was 11%.
29% of SFH sold during their first 7 days on the market. Last month was 28%.
The median price of condos at 265,000 is up $5,000 or 1.9% from Aug.
The median price of condos is exactly the same as last year.
Condo sales at 580 are up 25% compared to Sep 2008.
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If you were reading this blog in March, you may remember a listing in Renfrew which I put on the blog How quickly will this listing sell?
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Now settled into their new home, the sellers have been kind enough to answer a few questions about the process of selling and buying:
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Why did you want to sell your house?
· "Our main motivation in selling our house was to move closer to our son's school and to our leisure activities."
Why did you choose to list with me?
· "We chose Bob because he had the most realistic comparables of the realtors we interviewed, and because he didn't waste our time coming up with a reasonable market value for our home: he had done his homework before he walked in the door."
What were your impressions of the process of showing your home?
· "Showing our home was inconvenient, but that was what we expected. We tried to keep our house in very good condition at all times (ie. laundry done...) and we were happy to hear that there were showings."
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Did the sale happen as you expected?
· "The sale was much faster than we had expected. We knew that the average days on market, at the time in our area, was over 90 so that's what we expected. We were very happy to sell our home at close to list price in 33 days."
Was it difficult or easy to find a new house in the area you wanted?
· "It was more difficult than we had anticipated to find a house to buy in the neighborhoods we wanted. Bob opened up the doors for us by posting an ad on his blog when none of the available houses met our criteria and by finding a house (the one we bought), which we hadn't considered."
· "We have already recommended Bob to several friends for his expertise, common sense and easy-going demeanor. We will continue to do so."
- the Renfrew sellers
A home in Elbow Park set a record yesterday for the highest price ever paid for a home in Calgary at $10.3 million. The previous high price was set last year for a Crescent Heights home which sold for $7.5 million.
The 8588 sq ft house was listed for $10.5 million and was built in 2007. It only had six bathrooms, though. I wonder what they were thinking
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Sales of million dollar homes are way down this year. So far in 2009, we've had 178 sales compared to 267 last year.
The 30-day average price for single family homes is now $452,586. Without that sale, it would be $445,286. On the median price it made a whopping impact of $250.
There was another big $ sale yesterday for a measly $3.6 million. It was just a small place- only 5815 sq ft!
As long-time readers of this blog are aware, I've long been an advocate of using median prices to give a true indication of the market direction. I find it unfortunate that the media will report average prices are way up(+$12,000 compared to last year, and +$16,000 compared to last month). The truth is something much different. The median price is virtually the same as last year and up $7,750 compared to last month. Luckily, Calgarians have DailyStats.ca to set it straight!
The headline came from Garth Turner's blog greaterfool.ca/. A blogger, upon being the only person at an open house, asks if we've finally seen the end of the mania, and also asks the question, "How many first-time buyers and greater fools are out there?"
From the depths of despair only ten months ago, house and condo prices have risen steadily in 2009 and are now about the same as they were last year. Our most recent transaction(yesterday) involved full list price after one day on the market. What trends are we seeing so far this month? Are first-time buyers really driving the market?
Mid-August reality check
For the first 15 days in August:
Homes are still being sold quickly: 29% are sold within their first 7 days on the market. Last month was 30%.
Condo sales are up 40% over last year. Single family home(SFH) sales are up 6%.
Inventory is 40% lower than last year. We still haven't seen the influx of new listings which was expected.
12% of SFH are selling at list price or higher. Last month was 11%.
28% of homes listed in the past 30 days already have a sale or conditional sale. Last month was 30%.
Jimmy’s Domino Theory
Jimmy made a good comment on the previous topic which in a nutshell says:
"Brisk activity from first-time buyers early in the year allowed move-up buyers to finally sell their home and consequently buy something more expensive."
I've experienced this phenomena first-hand with my own clients. The statistics also confirm it:
- Sales of homes in Aug over $600,000 are 15% higher than last year. In April, this segment was down 24%.
- Sales of homes under $400,000 are only up 4% in August. In April, this price range was 26% higher.
Last autumn when sales cratered, I remarked on pent-up demand, saying there were plenty of buyers, but with move-up buyers being unable to sell their homes, we were in grid-lock. This ultimately turned out to have been an accurate observation. It appears from the above stats that first-time buyers have finally satiated themselves.
With the effects of unemployment, low natural gas prices, and no more pent-up demand, prices should start to drop and we'll see a better selection of homes. Anyway, that's what I keep telling my buyers...but it's wearing thin.
There were 1585 single family homes sold in July. That's the most ever. The previous record was in 2005 with 1573 sales.
Sales were up 21% compared to last year.
Although the median and average prices dropped, the sales price per sq ft actually increased. This means people were buying smaller houses.
The inventory is still lower than I'd like to see. When an attractive new listing comes on the market, it sells fast. 31% of the sales in the past week were sold during the first 7 days on the market.
Complete July 2009 stats summary:
The median price of single family homes(SFH) at $390,000 is down $9,000 or 2.3% from June. It's down 4.5% from July 2008 when it was $408,500.
The SFH average price at $436,782 is down $10,360 or 2.3% compared to June. It's down 4.3% from July 2008 when it was $456,380.
SFH sales price per sq ft at $289 was up $1, or .35%% compared to June.
Sales of single family homes were up 21% compared to July 2008.
Sales of SFH are up 15% compared to the historic average for July.
SFH Inventory on July 31 was 3314, which is 45% lower than last year.
New listings at 2089 were down 18% compared to last year.
The absorption rate of 2.1 means that we have a 2.1 month supply of homes on the market. Last year, there was a 4.6 month supply. For homes under $500,000, there is a 1.5 month supply. You can see the absorption rate by price range here.
Days on Market(DOM) decreased from 44 in June to 43 in July. Last year, it was 52.
33 homes sold for $1 million or more. Last year, there were 30.
Price reductions are down 61% compared to last year. We've averaged 37 price reductions per day over the past week. Last year was 96.
30% of the homes listed in July already have a sale or a conditional sale. Last year, it was 13%.
The median price of condos at $263,000 is down $2,500 or 1% from June.
The median price of condos is down 3.8% compared to last year.
Condo sales at 702 were up 31% compared to July 2008.
"whoever this "Squidly" fellow is, he needs serious mental help. This fellow could very well be a physical threat. I'd contact the authorities and get a physical restraining order against someone who appears to be as unstable he is."(posted by Frnk on previous topic)
I appreciate your concern, and I imagine you echo the sentiments of many readers here. The anonymity of the internet allows cowardly individuals to do and say things which they would never have the guts to do in person. It’s the first time in Squidly's life that he’s had an audience, and it gives him an illusion of power and acceptance. I'll go along with the majority of voters on my online poll and believe that he's just another "internet coward and bully."
I went through the same thing last year. Some wingnut from the Alberta Bubble Blog was threatening me. As soon as I called them on it, they backed down - as most cowards do.
As for a restraining order, I don’t believe this guy is capable of getting up from his computer, let alone threatening me with physical violence.
When I re-opened the blog this spring, he went on a 12-hour binge where he ranted about me non-stop. Chronology of a squidly attack. A blogger suggested that I get a restraining order back then.
Does anyone have any theories on what his problem is? Should I be taking his threats more seriously? I didn't think it was all that big of a deal, giving out free information! What am I doing that's so important, that he needs to obsess about it 24/7?
Since I posted the poll two days ago, 345 people have voted. Take my online poll.
If you missed it, here's Squidly's latest threat: Squidly's threat. Strong language warning!
"On MLS map search there are almost 500 million dollar+ in inventory. Who is gonna buy these homes?"
Those were blog comments from as recent as January; only six months ago.
In the first six months of this year, over four billion dollars worth of real estate changed hands.
What happened to turn things around so suddenly and dramatically?
So who did buy these homes? Here are a few of my buyers from this spring:
Couples with a child on the way, looking for more space and a yard for the little tykes.
Families who were moving across the city to be in closer proximity to schools.
First time buyers taking advantage of low interest rates.
Move-up buyers who were finally able to sell their house to a first-time buyer.
Condo-dwellers looking to have a house and yard.
Suburbanites, tired of the daily commute, moving to the inner city.
Out-of-town parents buying a house for their daughter who is attending U of C
Fort Mac residents who are preparing for a move back to Calgary
Early in the year we heard that it was only first-time buyers taking advantage of low interest rates who were buying low-priced homes. In January, sales of homes over $600,000 were down 39% compared to 2008. In June, sales of homes over $600,000 were 25% higher than last year.
The annual mystery that is Calgary real estate continues to baffle the experts and pundits and everyday people.
How many people delayed their home purchase because of the fear and dire predictions? Do you regret your decision, or do you still believe prices are in for an even greater drop? How many people sold their house last fall, believing that greater doom and gloom was on the way?
What's a person to do now?